The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Still crap weather. Probably won't improve till the latter part of February. @Martin-Futter How is the Horse Software coming? I know you said you were hoping to get an update yesterday.
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Still waiting for a change in the weather. Annoying, but that's the way it is. Plowing into AW stats still to see if I can come up with something consistent.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@cyril-reaney said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
What is current statutus of racing stats ?
Hoping to have the beta ready for testing end of month
on this I will get an update at our weekly meeting tomorrow
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@cyril-reaney said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
What is current statutus of racing stats ?
Hoping to have the beta ready for testing end of month
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What is current statutus of racing stats ?
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@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Finn-Kristensen @John-Folan Some effort you are putting into this gents
following this thread with great interest
I second that outstanding work as always lads!
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@Finn-Kristensen @John-Folan Some effort you are putting into this gents
following this thread with great interest -
No selections. Following on from the thoughts on draw bias I analysed something I am testing on the AW. I hadn’t kept draw stats but distance played a massive role. Looking into it further the courses with decent course bias performed better over some distances than others. The results on Timeform and the draw bias was the obvious factor over those distances. Bit of a slog but I am onto something. It literally will be horses for courses at this rate.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
None today. One point profit from the month(two selections lol)
profitable month
My thoughts. Hopefully more selections next month
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
None today. One point profit from the month(two selections lol)
profitable month
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None today. One point profit from the month(two selections lol)
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
Nice one @John-Folan
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
A selection! 3.5-9 odds range and check the going just before the off and avoid if heavy
Smashed home
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A selection! 3.5-9 odds range and check the going just before the off and avoid if heavy
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Wolverhampton doesn't seem to have a low Draw bias, so not an angle to find there from that perspective.
No it’s deffo course shape that affects the draw. I’ve been looking today. Lingfield has no course bias either.
I’ll compile a list of courses and distances that have bias and see what we have to work with.
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Wolverhampton doesn't seem to have a low Draw bias, so not an angle to find there from that perspective.
No it’s deffo course shape that affects the draw. I’ve been looking today. Lingfield has no course bias either.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
Wolverhampton doesn't seem to have a low Draw bias, so not an angle to find there from that perspective.
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If we narrow the selections to Top 3 in the BSP ranks or only accept selections with odds at 9 or lower at BSP, we lose a large portion of the profits (drops to around 25-30 points) while the strike rate increases to just below 40%.
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@john-folan Southwell looks interesting.
I've run it for 5-12 runner races and these are the results:
A very clear positive bias for Stall 1 there.
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan It can do a lot of things
I just checked the results if we only accept horses with BSP between 1 - 9.0. This is what I get:
Stall 2 keeps showing as the best, however, stall 10 also keeps reappearing as profitable. I am not familiar with Doncaster's 5F track so I don't know if there is anything that speaks for high draws as well?
I think flat stats says the outside stall is decent too. Some courses have different bias’s to others based on its shape. Let me see what i can dig up about each race course for the flat/aw.
