The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A selection! 3.5-9 odds range and check the going just before the off and avoid if heavy

Smashed home

[John Folan]

A selection! 3.5-9 odds range and check the going just before the off and avoid if heavy

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Wolverhampton doesn't seem to have a low Draw bias, so not an angle to find there from that perspective.

No it’s deffo course shape that affects the draw. I’ve been looking today. Lingfield has no course bias either.

I’ll compile a list of courses and distances that have bias and see what we have to work with.

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Wolverhampton doesn't seem to have a low Draw bias, so not an angle to find there from that perspective.

No it’s deffo course shape that affects the draw. I’ve been looking today. Lingfield has no course bias either.

[Finn Kristensen]

Wolverhampton doesn't seem to have a low Draw bias, so not an angle to find there from that perspective.

[Finn Kristensen]

If we narrow the selections to Top 3 in the BSP ranks or only accept selections with odds at 9 or lower at BSP, we lose a large portion of the profits (drops to around 25-30 points) while the strike rate increases to just below 40%.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan Southwell looks interesting.

I've run it for 5-12 runner races and these are the results:

A very clear positive bias for Stall 1 there.

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan It can do a lot of things

I just checked the results if we only accept horses with BSP between 1 - 9.0. This is what I get:

Stall 2 keeps showing as the best, however, stall 10 also keeps reappearing as profitable. I am not familiar with Doncaster's 5F track so I don't know if there is anything that speaks for high draws as well?

I think flat stats says the outside stall is decent too. Some courses have different bias’s to others based on its shape. Let me see what i can dig up about each race course for the flat/aw.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan It can do a lot of things

I just checked the results if we only accept horses with BSP between 1 - 9.0. This is what I get:

Stall 2 keeps showing as the best, however, stall 10 also keeps reappearing as profitable. I am not familiar with Doncaster's 5F track so I don't know if there is anything that speaks for high draws as well?

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan I just included odds rank, so we only use horses ranked 1-3 at BSP. These are the results:

Interesting. What else can your software do? Filter wise?

Shows there is deffo bias. Just a case of how to approach it

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan I just included odds rank, so we only use horses ranked 1-3 at BSP. These are the results:

Interesting. What else can your software do? Filter wise?

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan I just included odds rank, so we only use horses ranked 1-3 at BSP. These are the results:

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan I just made an analysis on Doncaster. Can't really confirm your figures there tbh.

For the 5F races (AW) I get the following:

So, nothing really tells us that there is a clear advantage for the low draws. However, Stall 2 seems to be the best for whatever reason. I did an extra analysis where I expanded the number of runs to include all races with 5-14 runners - the results are pretty much the same. Stall 2 seems to be the best, but the win rate remains at around 24%. The corresponding Place figures are just below 40% for the Draw at 2.

I again have to stress that the numbers we look at here are at the low end, so it would be problematic to draw too clear conclusions based on these findings.

Needs odd filters. I’m interested in an aw backing system. Draw is the obvious filter that’s needed. I’m going to play a bit. Thanks for the input. I like the way that software you use sets it out. It probably needs runners in the top three in the betting to really notice the benefit. A crap horse is. Crap horse no matter what stall.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan I just made an analysis on Doncaster. Can't really confirm your figures there tbh.

For the 5F races (AW) I get the following:

So, nothing really tells us that there is a clear advantage for the low draws. However, Stall 2 seems to be the best for whatever reason. I did an extra analysis where I expanded the number of runs to include all races with 5-14 runners - the results are pretty much the same. Stall 2 seems to be the best, but the win rate remains at around 24%. The corresponding Place figures are just below 40% for the Draw at 2.

I again have to stress that the numbers we look at here are at the low end, so it would be problematic to draw too clear conclusions based on these findings.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Just wanted to check the Place figures, given how good the low draw figures looked.

So 50%+ place positions for stalls 1-3. There is a clear positive correlation between low draw and good runs, however, the data set is limited.

There is an edge there. Might be onto something. Half tempted to get proform back to really go to town on it.

Thanks for looking it’s good to get a conversation going.

Have a look at Chester and Doncaster for the short flat races when you get a mo. Even more bias than Kempton.

Will look at Doncaster. Just for the record, the Place figures are for 5f (actually 5.5 f) races at Chester.

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Just wanted to check the Place figures, given how good the low draw figures looked.

So 50%+ place positions for stalls 1-3. There is a clear positive correlation between low draw and good runs, however, the data set is limited.

There is an edge there. Might be onto something. Half tempted to get proform back to really go to town on it.

Thanks for looking it’s good to get a conversation going.

Have a look at Chester and Doncaster for the short flat races when you get a mo. Even more bias than Kempton.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan Just wanted to check the Place figures, given how good the low draw figures looked.

So 50%+ place positions for stalls 1-3. There is a clear positive correlation between low draw and good runs, however, the data set is limited.

[Finn Kristensen]

@finn-kristensen

Favourites at Chester:

Not a lot of data so difficult too draw any conclusions for faves I think.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan This is what I get for Chester (5.5 f):

(All runners - favourites to follow)

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan I use PR Ratings (lifetime membership).

This is what I get for the favourites: