The BTC Horse Racing Thread

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@John-Folan do you ever take field size into equation? For example, odds on in the 12:15 Naas. It's a maiden hurdle and there are 22 runners... lots that can go wrong in big fields. Not going against you, just curious about the thought process.

In this case Rachael is on board however!

John Folan

Couple of Trobs too. Both currently inside the 3.5-9 odds range.

John Folan

Odds On Lays 06/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

15:10 Doncaster Hebrides. 1/2 on after finishing 3rd in its first race? Quite like the look of the second favourite even if they didn’t run well on the all weather LTO

12:25 Kelso Mr Whittaker. This horse is way too short. The second favourite is only so high in price as it pulled up LTO. Third favourite is no slouch either and has Derek Fox on board(Grand National Winner).

13:15 Wincanton. Knappers Hill. There is no way I am passing up this price. 1/5 on. Kalyptra should give him a good run.

15:28 Chelmsford Nations Pride. 1.3 to lay? Yes please. Up in trip and it is Chelmsford where odds on favourites go to die.

16:15 Naas. Bellatior. Love an odds on who has never run a race. Second favourite there or there about.

A few very sort odds favourites today. Must say I prefer the really low odds stuff. Low liability and only need a couple to come in to profit.

LATE ADDITION
12:15 Naas. Uhtred. Not won since 2019 and the field is a cavalry charge. Off six months.

John Folan

Small loss. About 0.2 of a point. However look at it in the context of 3/5 over the last two days and you will see where I’m going with these. Even if I get a flat 50/100 right we are in the money. These are very low risk and quite boring. Although I do love watching the races, especially when a 1/3 shot loses.

John Folan

Odds On Lays 5/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:15 Fontwell. Nikap. Not great LTO. Up in trip. No run since early this year. The only other runner isn’t a million miles away.

14:50 Fontwell Imphal Big jump in trip. The tin miner looks a good prospect to challenge.

16:00 Newcastle. Desert Lime. 5th in its only race. Off 11 months. Burj Malinka an obvious challenger.

18:15 Dundalk Knocklane Lass. Up in trip. First time on AW. It’s also a cavalry charge.

John Folan

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Yep , jinxed the last one but a good result overall.

No such thing as a jinx!!

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@john-folan Yep , jinxed the last one but a good result overall.

John Folan

2/3 I’ll take that. Always worth opposing sub 1.5’s at Chelmsford as long term it’s profitable

John Folan

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan 2 out of 3....looking good

Ssssshhhh

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@john-folan 2 out of 3....looking good

John Folan

Been a crazy amount of odds ons winning lately. Someone who is a bookie has said the same thing to me. It will turn.

Odds On Lays 4/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

14:00 Newbury. Elle Est Belle. Up against two good other horses. Not run since April and not won for a year.

12:30 Ludlow. Rainyday Woman. Hurdling for the first time. Has needed a second wind op which suggests a problem. Not run since March.

17:55 Chelmsford. Howzak. Up in trip. Also under a double penalty. Seems better suited to five furlongs.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds on lays 03/11/2021

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:40 Nottingham. Walk Of Stars. May be more suited to a longer distance. Like the second and third favourite has only run one race. Can’t judge form on that.

0.8 points lost.

John Folan

Odds on lays 03/11/2021

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:40 Nottingham. Walk Of Stars. May be more suited to a longer distance. Like the second and third favourite has only run one race. Can’t judge form on that.

John Folan

I am used to runs like this. Everything I do comes good. I don’t need more than a 50% strike rate on anything I do.

Odds on favourite lays seem to go in phases where everything wins. Then it will do the opposite. The downside is much less than the upside so it always sorts itself. Annoying they have done this now. I’m not going to over analyse. Just keep doing what I know works.

John Folan

Crap day. Nothing unusual and it always sorts itself. On to tomorrow.

John Folan

A trob. Should hit the 3.5-9 odds range

John Folan

Odds on Lay 02/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

14:33 Lingfield. Howzak. Under a 6lb penalty after winning at Chelmsford 5 days ago. Looks a bit crap apart from that based on previous form.

14:25 Exeter. Threeunderthrufive. Straight fight between this and Ask A Honey Bee. Honest Vic no slouch either. Soft ground should have an impact too.

15:30 Newcastle Mutaraafeq. Never won a race. Has a reasonable rival in Silver Bubble. Up in trip. Not a lot screams a price as low as it has.

13:45 Fairyhouse. Three Stripe Life. Not turning down the chance to lay at that price. Sevenna Stat should feature. Not run since March. First time hurdler.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Only one matched yesterday for a small loss.

Odd On Lays 1/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

14:50 Laytown Thaleeq. Obviously had to lay at this course. Not good form and an obvious challenger in the shape of Business.

Struggling to find reasons to oppose todays other odds on favourites. Will look later once I’m into the Beta be interesting to see what it throws up stats wise.

Nowhere near odds on. No bet day

John Folan

@darri said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan beta is out, enjoy mate, be good to see what your thoughts are and what you find

Adams keeping us waiting until later. Reminds me of that old joke.

‘How do you keep an idiot in suspense?’

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@john-folan beta is out, enjoy mate, be good to see what your thoughts are and what you find