The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

Utterly superb day today. Bit disappointing in the lack of trob selections lately but I know what works with those so will be patient. Bare with the odds on
lays as there will be a lot of losers. However there isn’t that much variance so never takes much to get back in front. I love a system but I really don’t have one for these. Please feel free to pull me up on my reasoning. Charles and Richard used to when they were active members and it made me a better trader. One week to go to the horse software beta!!

John Folan

@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.
14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.
13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.
14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.
15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Great work again so far..........

3:00 Wincanton Sonning +0.5

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. +0.5

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet +0.5

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook didn’t match

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack.

Well chuffed with those. Would still oppose Fire Attack. 1.63 was the price I got.

I’ll keep plugging away at these. Be even more fun now the heavy ground starts to rear it’s head

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds On Lays 24/10

If I can’t get matched below 2.0 they are no bets

13:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Not a bad days work with only fire attack letting me down. Queens Brook was a no bet. 2.25 poibts

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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

3:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.
14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.
13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.
14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.
15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

Great work again so far..........

3:00 Wincanton Sonning +0.5

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. +0.5

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet +0.5

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook didn’t match

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack.

John Folan

Odds On Lays 24/10

If I can’t get matched below 2.0 they are no bets

13:00 Wincanton. Donning. First time on the hurdles. Up against an LTO in Mr Allegro. Plus a pretty decent hurdler in Burristo If both of these are a non runner then this is a no bet.

14:10 Wincanton Shearer. Hugely up in trip and a switch in discipline. First time hurdler always worth opposing.

13:10 Galway. Jumping Jet. Was an LTO winner but six months ago and that was on the NHF. This is a hurdle and he is up against fitter horses with reasonable records.

14:00 Wexford Queens Brook. Competitive top 3. 11 month absence and no win for a year.

15:45 Wexford. Fire Attack. Terrible recent record. Six months off and a switch in discipline. Easy to oppose.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds On Lays 23/10

I will lay these just before the off. If they are not below 2.0 they are a no bet.

15:15 Doncaster Luxembourg. Highly competitive race. May not handle the soft ground having never run on it before.

16:59 Chelmsford Spirit Catcher. Under a penalty. Up against a very good horse in Windseeker. If Windseeker is a non runner this is no bet.

13:20 Galway Iberique Du Seuil. Significant increase in trip. So a question mark over stamina.

15:02 Galway Colonel Mustard. Not won for a year. Two highly competitive horses among the other runners. First run since April.

I didn’t do Iberique as it was over two.

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@john-folan

I did four of yours -
15:15 Doncaster Luxembourg.
16:59 Chelmsford Spirit Catcher.
13:20 Galway Iberique Du Seuil.
15:02 Galway Colonel Mustard.

actually ended 0.25 pts up

John Folan

Not been a single selection for the trobs for a while. They just need the jumps to bed in

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Additionally in the 16:40 Cheltenham Does He Know. Significantly up in trip and up against two decent opponents.

Done at the finish. Nuts. Losing day today no matter what happens at the end

Maybe I should stick to the AW. 1.5 down. This is not doing anything it hasn’t before.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Additionally in the 16:40 Cheltenham Does He Know. Significantly up in trip and up against two decent opponents.

Done at the finish. Nuts. Losing day today no matter what happens at the end

John Folan

Additionally in the 16:40 Cheltenham Does He Know. Significantly up in trip and up against two decent opponents.

John Folan

Odds On Lays 23/10

I will lay these just before the off. If they are not below 2.0 they are a no bet.

15:15 Doncaster Luxembourg. Highly competitive race. May not handle the soft ground having never run on it before.

16:59 Chelmsford Spirit Catcher. Under a penalty. Up against a very good horse in Windseeker. If Windseeker is a non runner this is no bet.

13:20 Galway Iberique Du Seuil. Significant increase in trip. So a question mark over stamina.

15:02 Galway Colonel Mustard. Not won for a year. Two highly competitive horses among the other runners. First run since April.

John Folan

Tomorrows will be up a little later tomorrow . I’ve got some running around to do first thing. They will be done before the first odds on races though.

John Folan

0.2 points lost on the odds on lays

John Folan

@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan

Thanks!
only did two of yours today

Picual - 1.0 point profit

and hopefully
19:30 Newcastle Mobashr

He was a non runner they had a mare with the gates

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@john-folan

Thanks!
only did two of yours today

Picual - 1.0 point profit

and hopefully
19:30 Newcastle Mobashr

John Folan

I’ve knocked up a bot for these. Will be changing things slightly in that getting on at just before the off or BSP. Will still be odds on only. I’ll also make the bot available on my Bfbot thread once I’ve made sure it works.

I’ll still post all selections in the morning. Anything that drifts over 2.0 will be a no bet. The reason for this is 90% are steaming and we can lay at better prices nearer the race.

John Folan

In the 8pm Gasee is now a non runner but Royal Invitation has been cut to 1.2. I am laying at that price

John Folan

I have three that are a little over odds on. I’ve asked for 1.9 and they will be no bets if I don’t get it.

John Folan

Odds On Lays 22/10

13:55 Cheltenham Camprond @1.37. Obvious challenger in Mars Harper. All Clenched Up is no slouch either. Can throw a race when odds on.

18:30 Newcastle Nicual. I have asked for 1.9. If I don’t get it I am leaving it alone. It’s currently hovering above evens. It is only so short as it has been in one race. It did nothing. Up against a horse with interesting parentage. In love interest.

19:00 Newcastle Pocket the Profit 1.9 asked for again not involved if I don’t get it. This one is on a hot streak and I think should be shorter. So the question now is why not? Up against Brazen Akoya who should be a lot shorter.

19:30 Newcastle Mobashr @1.56. Won LTO but first time on this surface. Off 117 days and may need a run for fitness.

20:00 Royal Invitation asked for 1.9 and not involved if I don’t get it. Up against Gaseee who was an LTO winner. No reason why he is so close to odds on and Gaseee isn’t.

13:10 Sligo Cirl DenNiege @1.9. I cannot see for the life of me why this horse is odds on. Like the look of the second favourite. These horses should be the other way around

16:35 Sligo Minella Crooner @1.7. Never run a race but odds on? Obvious threat in State of Honour