The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds on lays 03/11/2021

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:40 Nottingham. Walk Of Stars. May be more suited to a longer distance. Like the second and third favourite has only run one race. Can’t judge form on that.

0.8 points lost.

John Folan

Odds on lays 03/11/2021

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

13:40 Nottingham. Walk Of Stars. May be more suited to a longer distance. Like the second and third favourite has only run one race. Can’t judge form on that.

John Folan

I am used to runs like this. Everything I do comes good. I don’t need more than a 50% strike rate on anything I do.

Odds on favourite lays seem to go in phases where everything wins. Then it will do the opposite. The downside is much less than the upside so it always sorts itself. Annoying they have done this now. I’m not going to over analyse. Just keep doing what I know works.

John Folan

Crap day. Nothing unusual and it always sorts itself. On to tomorrow.

John Folan

A trob. Should hit the 3.5-9 odds range

John Folan

Odds on Lay 02/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. Anything not under 2.0 at that point will be a no bet.

14:33 Lingfield. Howzak. Under a 6lb penalty after winning at Chelmsford 5 days ago. Looks a bit crap apart from that based on previous form.

14:25 Exeter. Threeunderthrufive. Straight fight between this and Ask A Honey Bee. Honest Vic no slouch either. Soft ground should have an impact too.

15:30 Newcastle Mutaraafeq. Never won a race. Has a reasonable rival in Silver Bubble. Up in trip. Not a lot screams a price as low as it has.

13:45 Fairyhouse. Three Stripe Life. Not turning down the chance to lay at that price. Sevenna Stat should feature. Not run since March. First time hurdler.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Only one matched yesterday for a small loss.

Odd On Lays 1/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

14:50 Laytown Thaleeq. Obviously had to lay at this course. Not good form and an obvious challenger in the shape of Business.

Struggling to find reasons to oppose todays other odds on favourites. Will look later once I’m into the Beta be interesting to see what it throws up stats wise.

Nowhere near odds on. No bet day

John Folan

@darri said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan beta is out, enjoy mate, be good to see what your thoughts are and what you find

Adams keeping us waiting until later. Reminds me of that old joke.

‘How do you keep an idiot in suspense?’

? Offline

@john-folan beta is out, enjoy mate, be good to see what your thoughts are and what you find

John Folan

Only one matched yesterday for a small loss.

Odd On Lays 1/11

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

14:50 Laytown Thaleeq. Obviously had to lay at this course. Not good form and an obvious challenger in the shape of Business.

Struggling to find reasons to oppose todays other odds on favourites. Will look later once I’m into the Beta be interesting to see what it throws up stats wise.

John Folan

No chance of any Trobs today. The going has knocked out the Irish courses and there was nothing in England.

However:

31/10 Odds On Lays

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

14:45 Naas Wuqood. The going is heavy at this course and that instantly turns every race into a lottery as trainers rightly protect the horse. Up against a couple of other decent prospects. Not run for six months.

16:05 Cork Agritime. Again the going could prove a problem. On paper it should win. But with such a low price it is worth taking on in the conditions.

John Folan

Odds on lays - Scratch
Dobs + 1 point
Trobs + 3 points
Wins + 8 points

John Folan

Dodged a bullet with the Baybridge drift before the off. The next time I am ‘initially going to leave one’ that is exactly what I will do.

John Folan

A few potential trobs today. 3.5-9 odds as usual. Going should be alright but keep an eye and abort if heavy ground

John Folan

30/10 Odds On Lays

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

15:25 Downroyal Envoi Allen. Looked like a world beater but now on a poor run of form. First run since April and obvious claims from second favourite.

16:35 Downroyal American Mike. First proper race. Second and third favourite look good prospects. Soft ground may cause problems.

15:33 Newmarket. Bay Bridge. Initially I was going to leave this one but I can’t ignore the second and third favourite. Also Desert Encounter is no slouch.

13:00 Musselburgh Arthurs Seat. Up against Minella Plus who is closing in on a win and looks fitter. Not run since earlier in the year.

John Folan

Small loss today. Done twice when they looked beat. Frustrating

John Folan

Glad I didn’t get matched on filistine. Drifted just before the off and still won. The market knows nothing!

John Folan

I'll be watching the going, but alright at Wetherby at the moment.

John Folan

That’s it. Rain. Lots of lovely rain. The going is going to be ruined over the next week. Perfect for laying

John Folan

Odds On Lays 29/10

I will be laying these 20 seconds out via BFbotmanager. If they are not odds on they will be no bets.

13:20 Newmarket Filistine. Up against an LTO winner. Silent Speech looks a good prospect too. Not sure why this horse is the favourite.

13:10 Downroyal Hollow Games. Not run since last December. Switching from NHF to Hurdles. Won’t have it all his own way against a couple of decent hurdlers.

14:20 Downroyal Zanahiyr. Up against a cracking horse in Cask Mate who won LTO last month. Not run since May so may need a run.

16:35 Downroyal The Mediator. Always worth opposing a horse that’s odds on on its first run. Up against two other decent prospects.

19:00 Kempton Stubble Field. Very short for a horse that’s never won. First time on the AW. Up against a couple of decent looking prospects.