The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

I'm harping on about Kempton as I get some good results there from a couple of little price sensitive micro strategies. Particularly in the lower part of the draw. These stats prove my point as well. Bare in mind that the results below are to SP so BSP returns will be a decent percentage higher. No other filters either(price for example which is a massive consideration). massey's stuff is limited so I cannot combine things sadly and I'm not shelling out for Proform at the moment when it is basically unusable.

John Folan

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still nothing. Been experimenting a bit on the dogs and course stats and wondered if the same thing applied to horse racing. Having an inital look at Kempton for example there is an obvious draw bias on the AW. I've been using the Adrian Massey site as it is free at present and you can run all sorts of things through it. The link is on my resources page.

It's got me thinking. I think it works in football too as there is differences between leagues(not so much grounds) where LTD works, backing unders and backing overs work. So I think that specific strategies may only work on certain courses. It makes sense and that old phrase 'horses for courses springs to mind. I'm going to do more research(i'll leave the football upto the experts. Stuart's LTD thread being a supreme example of league knowledge). I will see what I can find either from backing or laying perspectives.

Any thoughts?

good idea to test, think the software may be able to help with this @adam-williams?

This is kind of what I had in mind

Martin

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still nothing. Been experimenting a bit on the dogs and course stats and wondered if the same thing applied to horse racing. Having an inital look at Kempton for example there is an obvious draw bias on the AW. I've been using the Adrian Massey site as it is free at present and you can run all sorts of things through it. The link is on my resources page.

It's got me thinking. I think it works in football too as there is differences between leagues(not so much grounds) where LTD works, backing unders and backing overs work. So I think that specific strategies may only work on certain courses. It makes sense and that old phrase 'horses for courses springs to mind. I'm going to do more research(i'll leave the football upto the experts. Stuart's LTD thread being a supreme example of league knowledge). I will see what I can find either from backing or laying perspectives.

Any thoughts?

good idea to test, think the software may be able to help with this @adam-williams?

John Folan

Still nothing. Been experimenting a bit on the dogs and course stats and wondered if the same thing applied to horse racing. Having an inital look at Kempton for example there is an obvious draw bias on the AW. I've been using the Adrian Massey site as it is free at present and you can run all sorts of things through it. The link is on my resources page.

It's got me thinking. I think it works in football too as there is differences between leagues(not so much grounds) where LTD works, backing unders and backing overs work. So I think that specific strategies may only work on certain courses. It makes sense and that old phrase 'horses for courses springs to mind. I'm going to do more research(i'll leave the football upto the experts. Stuart's LTD thread being a supreme example of league knowledge). I will see what I can find either from backing or laying perspectives.

Any thoughts?

John Folan

Going to expect more of this going forward. Rainfall during the winter is predicted to increase by 59% between now and 2050. Really need an AW system.

John Folan

Nothing showing up. Probably won’t be for a week. Frustrating but there you go.

? Offline

This post is deleted!

John Folan

Shock horror a selection! 3.5-9 odds range. Ground currently soft but keep an eye

John Folan

Nothing yet again. Let’s hope things dry up soon

John Folan

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still no selections. The only thing I’m doing at the moment is scalping and laying short odds favourites who hate heavy ground. Just not worth it in this weather.

how do you filter that they hate heavy ground? is that by notes you have made?

Yeah it used to be obvious in proform. You can normally find the info on Timeform or racing post comments

Martin

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still no selections. The only thing I’m doing at the moment is scalping and laying short odds favourites who hate heavy ground. Just not worth it in this weather.

how do you filter that they hate heavy ground? is that by notes you have made?

John Folan

Still no selections. The only thing I’m doing at the moment is scalping and laying short odds favourites who hate heavy ground. Just not worth it in this weather.

? Offline

@john-folan amazing, thank you!

John Folan

Nothing today. Can’t wait for the weather to turn

John Folan

Matched but no conversion. One point lost

John Folan

@gary-tunnicliffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Morning John hope your keeping well, spreadsheet looks great are your own selections that fit the criteria B2L or L2B ?

They are Trobs, so looking for the price to drop 2/3rds inrunning. Explanation of how to place them on my resources thread

? Offline

@john-folan Morning John hope your keeping well, spreadsheet looks great are your own selections that fit the criteria B2L or L2B ?

? Offline

This post is deleted!

John Folan

Nothing hit the other day. Just the one today. Usual 3.5-9 odds range and no heavy ground. I'll be checking just before the off so I suggest you do the same.

Spreadsheet. Rules are on the second sheet. @Ryan-o-connor
0_1610533406327_Trob Strategies.xlsx

John Folan

@ryan-o-connor said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Hi John, new here, can you point me to a post explaining your criteria here please? Thanks

I’ll upload the spreadsheet later. It’s got the rules on it. That should help. Then on my resources thread under horse racing there is a explanation of dobbing and trobbing. Hope that helps