The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Finn Kristensen]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Hi John

I just checked through the software I use what the Draw delivers for 5F races with 8-12 runners at BSP at Kempton (since 2015). This is what I get (5% commission):

(I don't know why I only get the first 10 stalls).

Turns out there have only been races with 10 runners or less.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan This is what I get for the 6F races (all race types) at Kempton:

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan Hi John

I just checked through the software I use what the Draw delivers for 5F races with 8-12 runners at BSP at Kempton (since 2015). This is what I get (5% commission):

(I don't know why I only get the first 10 stalls).

[John Folan]

I'm harping on about Kempton as I get some good results there from a couple of little price sensitive micro strategies. Particularly in the lower part of the draw. These stats prove my point as well. Bare in mind that the results below are to SP so BSP returns will be a decent percentage higher. No other filters either(price for example which is a massive consideration). massey's stuff is limited so I cannot combine things sadly and I'm not shelling out for Proform at the moment when it is basically unusable.

[John Folan]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still nothing. Been experimenting a bit on the dogs and course stats and wondered if the same thing applied to horse racing. Having an inital look at Kempton for example there is an obvious draw bias on the AW. I've been using the Adrian Massey site as it is free at present and you can run all sorts of things through it. The link is on my resources page.

It's got me thinking. I think it works in football too as there is differences between leagues(not so much grounds) where LTD works, backing unders and backing overs work. So I think that specific strategies may only work on certain courses. It makes sense and that old phrase 'horses for courses springs to mind. I'm going to do more research(i'll leave the football upto the experts. Stuart's LTD thread being a supreme example of league knowledge). I will see what I can find either from backing or laying perspectives.

Any thoughts?

good idea to test, think the software may be able to help with this @adam-williams?

This is kind of what I had in mind

[Martin]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still nothing. Been experimenting a bit on the dogs and course stats and wondered if the same thing applied to horse racing. Having an inital look at Kempton for example there is an obvious draw bias on the AW. I've been using the Adrian Massey site as it is free at present and you can run all sorts of things through it. The link is on my resources page.

It's got me thinking. I think it works in football too as there is differences between leagues(not so much grounds) where LTD works, backing unders and backing overs work. So I think that specific strategies may only work on certain courses. It makes sense and that old phrase 'horses for courses springs to mind. I'm going to do more research(i'll leave the football upto the experts. Stuart's LTD thread being a supreme example of league knowledge). I will see what I can find either from backing or laying perspectives.

Any thoughts?

good idea to test, think the software may be able to help with this @adam-williams?

[John Folan]

Still nothing. Been experimenting a bit on the dogs and course stats and wondered if the same thing applied to horse racing. Having an inital look at Kempton for example there is an obvious draw bias on the AW. I've been using the Adrian Massey site as it is free at present and you can run all sorts of things through it. The link is on my resources page.

It's got me thinking. I think it works in football too as there is differences between leagues(not so much grounds) where LTD works, backing unders and backing overs work. So I think that specific strategies may only work on certain courses. It makes sense and that old phrase 'horses for courses springs to mind. I'm going to do more research(i'll leave the football upto the experts. Stuart's LTD thread being a supreme example of league knowledge). I will see what I can find either from backing or laying perspectives.

Any thoughts?

[John Folan]

Going to expect more of this going forward. Rainfall during the winter is predicted to increase by 59% between now and 2050. Really need an AW system.

[John Folan]

Nothing showing up. Probably won’t be for a week. Frustrating but there you go.

[A Former User]

This post is deleted!

[John Folan]

Shock horror a selection! 3.5-9 odds range. Ground currently soft but keep an eye

[John Folan]

Nothing yet again. Let’s hope things dry up soon

[John Folan]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still no selections. The only thing I’m doing at the moment is scalping and laying short odds favourites who hate heavy ground. Just not worth it in this weather.

how do you filter that they hate heavy ground? is that by notes you have made?

Yeah it used to be obvious in proform. You can normally find the info on Timeform or racing post comments

[Martin]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Still no selections. The only thing I’m doing at the moment is scalping and laying short odds favourites who hate heavy ground. Just not worth it in this weather.

how do you filter that they hate heavy ground? is that by notes you have made?

[John Folan]

Still no selections. The only thing I’m doing at the moment is scalping and laying short odds favourites who hate heavy ground. Just not worth it in this weather.

[A Former User]

@john-folan amazing, thank you!

[John Folan]

Nothing today. Can’t wait for the weather to turn

[John Folan]

Matched but no conversion. One point lost

[John Folan]

@gary-tunnicliffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Morning John hope your keeping well, spreadsheet looks great are your own selections that fit the criteria B2L or L2B ?

They are Trobs, so looking for the price to drop 2/3rds inrunning. Explanation of how to place them on my resources thread

[A Former User]

@john-folan Morning John hope your keeping well, spreadsheet looks great are your own selections that fit the criteria B2L or L2B ?