The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Ok first up, this is for all you bot boys out there. I trialled this on bfbotmanager yesterday and I am really pleased to say I had exactly the same results as the software did yesterday :). I need to add a few more classification exclusions to the bot, but will do so as those races come up over the next few days. You can probably hunt these down manually everyday, but if you automate it it's easier.
This strategy is a straight laying strategy for horses between 1.8-2.4 10 seconds before the off. This first picture is the main filters. Everything is race filters apart from the odds. As it's not horse specific the software will put every horse in those races up as a potential, hence why I won't be posting them daily.
This second picture excludes certain race classifications. To be fair they only make a small loss between them but do drag down the ROI.
This is the execution settings based on £1 flat stakes. This is so I can get a per point idea of the profitability of the strategy. If it isn't profitable to flat stakes I am not interested.
This is the strategy results. The Strike rate is actually double that(So 56% and half the number of total trades). For some reason the software is counting entry and exit as two trades(even if there is no exit!). Adam is aware and is fixing this. Probably today if not shortly. Everything else is correct. So a 7% ROI and a max drawdown of (approx) 10 points,
Now this is the really, really clever bit. I wonder why Adam included this feature but, I am a total convert now. As you can see in this picture, I have changed the staking settings to 2% of a £100 bank. So in effect a 50 point bank. I am happy this is safe as the maximum drawdown is 10 points. You can use a 100 point bank if you want or whatever. You can change these setting to your hearts content. This will show why Martin, Adam and Ryan bang on about compounding.
This is the profit and loss using those compounding settings. (You can bot these as well). So across the last year starting with a £100 bank and £2 stakes you would now have a bank of £721. So a profit of £621. Try getting that at Natwest. Everyone needs to look at staking methods like this. The dropdowns are less painful than sudden doubling of stakes and the inevitable bad run that follows that and the upside on any half decent strategy is spectacular.
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@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan sounds great mate. I assume the bot will be BFbot manager
Looking forward to seeing what you have to share and as always it’s much appreciated
I’m slowly getting to grips with the software now.Yes. Although most bot providers should be able to do it. I suppose people could do it manually too. They would miss some. But long term would iron itself out.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Beaten Fav Lays 3-11 odds
2684281 26/04/2022 13:35 Yarmouth My Mirage N Yarmouth 10.5
2684328 26/04/2022 14:30 Nottingham Australian Harbour N Nottingham 11
2684373 26/04/2022 15:30 Nottingham Sunrise Valley N Nottingham 4.2
2684388 26/04/2022 15:40 Punchestown Instit N Punchestown 11
2684482 26/04/2022 17:40 Ayr Tilsitt N Ayr 6.6
2684546 26/04/2022 19:25 Ayr Smiling Jayne N Ayr 4.7Pace Lays 3-11 odds
2684373 26/04/2022 15:30 Nottingham Sunrise Valley 10 Nottingham 4.2
2684571 26/04/2022 20:30 Ayr Diamond Haze 10 Ayr 5.9No short odds lays today
8/8 another full house
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@john-folan sounds great mate. I assume the bot will be BFbot manager
Looking forward to seeing what you have to share and as always it’s much appreciated
I’m slowly getting to grips with the software now. -
New dob system “Slow Horses” will be incoming tomorrow onwards(providing there are selections).
I’ve got a Trob Project that’s ready as well. I’ll post those as well as they come up. Will average 1 a day I reckon.
Sorted a short odds straight lay system. You will need a bot for this one. But once I’ve got the classification filter right(on my bot) I’ll pass on the settings for people to follow. Thanks to @martin for the info re odds yesterday. It got me exploring different options and 1.8- 2.4 is the sweet spot for these. Naff all liability per trade and a massive -10 points HBD.
I’ll keep posting my normal trobs as they are solid.
Then I’ll look for the next thing lol.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan not much, just odds and course
I’ve developed one a little different then. Good. I’ll post the settings later/tomorrow
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Beaten Fav Lays 3-11 odds
2684281 26/04/2022 13:35 Yarmouth My Mirage N Yarmouth 10.5
2684328 26/04/2022 14:30 Nottingham Australian Harbour N Nottingham 11
2684373 26/04/2022 15:30 Nottingham Sunrise Valley N Nottingham 4.2
2684388 26/04/2022 15:40 Punchestown Instit N Punchestown 11
2684482 26/04/2022 17:40 Ayr Tilsitt N Ayr 6.6
2684546 26/04/2022 19:25 Ayr Smiling Jayne N Ayr 4.7Pace Lays 3-11 odds
2684373 26/04/2022 15:30 Nottingham Sunrise Valley 10 Nottingham 4.2
2684571 26/04/2022 20:30 Ayr Diamond Haze 10 Ayr 5.9No short odds lays today
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@john-folan not much, just odds and course
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@martin Hi Martin what i was trying to say is are the results of the horse racing posted some where so i can have a look to see if it is something a novice ike me can do.
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@Martin How much filtering have you done to your short odd lays? I've been playing around the odds range you mentioned and mental how profitable they are over the longer term.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
This post is deleted!
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin nice 1 on the higher odds are you using the Maria staking system?
No just one point lays but may consider that. It’ll be min stakes for a while so I’m not too fussed on type of stake anyway atm
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@martin nice 1 on the higher odds are you using the Maria staking system?
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Todays Set & Forget Lays:
I'm going min stakes on these as it's early days but back-testing has been good for them. The higher odds lays are for those who don't mind that kind of thing!
1.69-2.20 odds only -
3-11 odds only -
3-11 odds only
Eyes down for a full house
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@gary-brown is the pope a catholic
