The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

No joy today. Three matched. All sadly won. -1.5 points

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles have a read of this. I got it off flatstats which is a decent font of all knowledge which I refer to regularly.

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/effect-of-weight-in-horse-racing.html

Should help us get a good discussion going. Interesting stats on the flat anyway. Surprising even.

[John Folan]

@matt-ayles it is always a consideration but I don’t let lower weight put me off a lay. I’ll chat properly later as I’m pushed a bit for time this morning. Flipping women

[John Folan]

@martin seen the updates @Adam has done? Shiny

[A Former User]

@John-Folan have you ever done research with your odds ons into whether the weight plays a part? Lots of odds ons are top weight or near as, but today you also have one that's almost bottom weight.

Laying horses under penalty is always worth investigating, so by the same breath perhaps the same could apply here?

No basis for this assessment, merely a passing thought.

[Martin]

No pace interest for me today. A few close ones but I don’t like it when there are other quick horses in the race.

[John Folan]

Big list today. Always worries me but there are reasons to lay them all

Odds On Lays 11/11

12:30 Market Rasen. Raymond Tusk. Never run hurdles. Poor recent records. Up against an LTO Winner

12:37 Sedgefield. A Different Kind. First time on Hurdles. Up against key dancer who won at this level and distance the race before last.

14:47 Sedgefield Bold Endeavour. Up substantially in distance. First time hurdler. Up against a horse who is looking good and was unlucky lto.

12:55 Taunton. Celestial Force. Has excellent competition in Secret Secret. Not set the world on fire with recent form.

17:30 Chelmsford. Gin O’clock. First time on The AW. Also this race is a cavalry charge.

15:25 Clonmel Bold Getaway. 4th in its only start 10 months ago and a switch in discipline. Quite like the look of Diamondinthemud

[A Former User]

Used some of my fun bank on Motawaafeq @6.4 to place, nice work lads

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Couple of pace horses to test today:

10th November
Motawaafeq Kempton AW 1m 6:00 PM
All In The Mind Dundalk AW 7f 2:50 PM

All in the Mind a non runner. I did two others apart from these

Shawaaf 15:50 Dundalk AW
Power Drive 16:20 Dundalk AW

They were both rated 10’s for pace. Both dobbed. One from 42 and one from 30.

I watched a few jumps with 10’s and 12’s. Wasn’t great so looks like an AW for these. Nice find (so far!!)

And another dob. You need Adam to fix the back test

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Couple of pace horses to test today:

10th November
Motawaafeq Kempton AW 1m 6:00 PM
All In The Mind Dundalk AW 7f 2:50 PM

All in the Mind a non runner. I did two others apart from these

Shawaaf 15:50 Dundalk AW
Power Drive 16:20 Dundalk AW

They were both rated 10’s for pace. Both dobbed. One from 42 and one from 30.

I watched a few jumps with 10’s and 12’s. Wasn’t great so looks like an AW for these. Nice find (so far!!)

[John Folan]

@tomasz-lunarzewski said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan I’ve just started following it today and hit a nice profit on that 1.2 lay. Well happy. Thank you mate

No worries. Just bare with these. They are a very slow burner.

[Tomasz Lunarzewski]

@john-folan I’ve just started following it today and hit a nice profit on that 1.2 lay. Well happy. Thank you mate

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Odds on Lays 10/11

13:10 Exeter. I am Maximus. Close challenger in Luttrell Lad who has a very nice record

14:50 Dundalk Ultramarine. Easy to oppose. Poor recent record and first time on Polytrack

13:10 out of range(still lost)

14:50 1.20 odds on favourite and lost lol

1pt profit

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan yeah you having that issue too?

Quite a lot

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin place could be an angle? Maybe need to include those prices?

[Martin]

@john-folan yeah you having that issue too?

[John Folan]

One trob for today. Outside the 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

@martin It hangs when you run the strategy doesn't it?

[John Folan]

@martin I’m going to see if I can get these to work in the strategy builder. That’s been a bit frustrating so far. But that’s what betas are for.

[Martin]

Couple of pace horses to test today:

10th November
Motawaafeq Kempton AW 1m 6:00 PM
All In The Mind Dundalk AW 7f 2:50 PM