The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matt-ayles it was mad. Get a few funny days like this don’t you? Unlike Boxing Day
Boxing Day is insane. Usually somewhere between 10-15 race meetings plus a full program of football. It's the second busiest day behind Grand National.
And I am normally too pissed to trade it
I always work boxing day so I'll be out of action between 10-6 so trading won't be happening for me either
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Flipping odds on lays are annoying the crap out of me at the moment. Bank Drawdown on 7 points here. I’ve had worse but there you go.
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@matt-ayles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matt-ayles it was mad. Get a few funny days like this don’t you? Unlike Boxing Day
Boxing Day is insane. Usually somewhere between 10-15 race meetings plus a full program of football. It's the second busiest day behind Grand National.
And I am normally too pissed to trade it
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matt-ayles it was mad. Get a few funny days like this don’t you? Unlike Boxing Day
Boxing Day is insane. Usually somewhere between 10-15 race meetings plus a full program of football. It's the second busiest day behind Grand National.
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@Martin You may want to put your AW pace ones through it using
Race Type: Allweather
Pace Rating: Value: 10 and 12Then use the execution settings I posted a couple of posts ago for DOBS
I’m not going to ruin it for you but you REALLY want to do this
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In other news. Restricting my trobs to class 3/4 means I can then lose the odds filters, plus a lot of the classification filters and they are still profitable, in fact a lot more so and they still maintain the strike rate. This is based on a limited data set as Adam isn’t adding all that in till things are sorted and later in the beta. However it shows the power of the software.
What a nice waste of a morning
. I've attached the last four months p and l having done this. It makes more sense than the other pictures I have posted
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@martin This is how you need to set the staking and exit settings to get a dob. Took me a while but I got it going. I've made notes for Adam that it needs simplifying and thrown a couple of ideas in.
This is a strategy I am backtesting based on pace stats and trobbing percentage. Makes far more sense now.
The Settings I am looking at. I altered the Execution settings to 200 points Exit Profit instead of 100 as I want to Trob them so slightly different to above.
The Output
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Nice trade on the only one that hit yesterday. Nothing today sadly~
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@matt-ayles it was mad. Get a few funny days like this don’t you? Unlike Boxing Day
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@Martin @John-Folan shops were dead yesterday. Only 2 UK meetings does not convert to busy days!
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0.35 points lost yesterday
Odds on lays 16/11
13:15 Fakenham Salley Gardens. Up against a very good Beaten Favourite in Presenting Yeats. Giving away a chunk of weight as well. Jump in trip might prove a problem too.
12:30 Ayr Soft Risk. Interesting race this. Favourite won LTO on the NHF back in May. Second and third favourite a bit overpriced maybe as they have decent jumps form.
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Have a couple of trobs. 3.5-9 odds range only. Got a dob but no trob yesterday.
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Small loss in the end yesterday
Odds on lays 15/11
12:45 Plumpton. Annual Invictus. On paper should win, but giving away a lot of weight to a smart jumper.
14:00 Leicester. Monarchofthegrange. Giving away a nice chunk of weight to its main rival who had a good run last time out. Worth opposing at this price
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Odds On Lays
15:30 Cheltenham I Like To Move It. Has a very obvious challenger in Washington who is on a hot streak. Also gives away some weight. Lovely straight fight between these two.
12:20 Cork. Minella Crooner. Not turning down a lay at this price. Up in trip and making its hurdles bow. Good challenger in the overpriced Hamundarson who has some hurdle form. Also a bit of a cavalry charge.
13:55 Cork. Magic Daze. Again a straight fight between the top two favourites. I can’t choose between them so happy to lay at sub 2.0
These are so frustrating at the moment. However about half a points damage done. Running just under a two point loss since I started posting. Not going to cry about that too much
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When I work out what the hell I have done here I will be rich.
Its looking at horses that have trobbed in 50% or more of their last ten runs. This is the backing the win only figure based on 2% on a £1000 bank compounding every time. When Adam does the next update I should be able to extrapolate the dob and trob p and l which is what i am more interested in.
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@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
12:20 Cork. Minella Crooner
Great work John!
+1pt
That was a cracker. I seem to be a lot better at picking these in the sub 1.5 market.
