The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
This is a genuine question for everyone who's got the horse trading software? Is anyone out there making actual money on it? I've been testing for nearly four months now using about four or five strategies and hasn't been any that have been consistently profitable and most would have lost quite a bit of money (don’t worry I’m on low stakes). I see there is a lot of information in the chat about strategies that people have been tweaking and showing the backtesting which is great, but are the actually working in a live testing environment? I understand with any new strategy you need to test it for three to four months I totally get that, but sooner or later the software has to show some form of value would you not disagree? And if none of the strategies are profitable then where is the value? Even the pace lays which had a good month last month are having an absolutely dreadful month this month.
So I'm interested to see if anyone is actually making money and on what strategy they are because maybe I'm just looking at the wrong strategies? Another example will be this recent back the favourite on Saturdays, Mondays and Tuesdays, now granted I've only been testing it for two weeks now but it's on like minus 24 points which is some drawdown.
I hope this isn't perceived as negative because it's not meant to be I'm just genuinely interested if anyone is making money in a live environment and it doesn't matter even if their one pound stakes or 50p stakes have they got any strategies that are making some form of profit?
Of the ones that have been discussed on here, or are being tracked by Martin, I only have data for November, but Back the Fav (+0.5pts), Back Pace Letter (+9pts), and the two Pace Lays (Martins & Lukes) are +6 and +4 by my reckoning.
Any others I am using are still being tweaked and/or forward tested
thats odd as ive been trading martin pace lays this month and by my reckoning they are -10, and as we have 2 losses today one at 10.0 so that could double (hopefully we have a turn around on that)
as for the others thats gtreat but we are only looking at 2 weeks i was interested if people had say like 3 months where over that time they were profitable maybe? I tend to have an ok month followed by 2 disasterous ones.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
This is a genuine question for everyone who's got the horse trading software? Is anyone out there making actual money on it? I've been testing for nearly four months now using about four or five strategies and hasn't been any that have been consistently profitable and most would have lost quite a bit of money (don’t worry I’m on low stakes). I see there is a lot of information in the chat about strategies that people have been tweaking and showing the backtesting which is great, but are the actually working in a live testing environment? I understand with any new strategy you need to test it for three to four months I totally get that, but sooner or later the software has to show some form of value would you not disagree? And if none of the strategies are profitable then where is the value? Even the pace lays which had a good month last month are having an absolutely dreadful month this month.
So I'm interested to see if anyone is actually making money and on what strategy they are because maybe I'm just looking at the wrong strategies? Another example will be this recent back the favourite on Saturdays, Mondays and Tuesdays, now granted I've only been testing it for two weeks now but it's on like minus 24 points which is some drawdown.
I hope this isn't perceived as negative because it's not meant to be I'm just genuinely interested if anyone is making money in a live environment and it doesn't matter even if their one pound stakes or 50p stakes have they got any strategies that are making some form of profit?
Of the ones that have been discussed on here, or are being tracked by Martin, I only have data for November, but Back the Fav (+0.5pts), Back Pace Letter (+9pts), and the two Pace Lays (Martins & Lukes) are +6 and +4 by my reckoning. Excluding today
Any others I am using are still being tweaked and/or forward tested
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.
I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900
Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got
But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.
This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.
The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!
if you had a fixed £14 liability of a £100 bank or 14% per trade, so seven losses and your bank is broken? i mean that could happen we have had 2 pace lays losses today already? so the back testing never showed a break of bank then? am i reading it right?
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This is a genuine question for everyone who's got the horse trading software? Is anyone out there making actual money on it? I've been testing for nearly four months now using about four or five strategies and hasn't been any that have been consistently profitable and most would have lost quite a bit of money (don’t worry I’m on low stakes). I see there is a lot of information in the chat about strategies that people have been tweaking and showing the backtesting which is great, but are the actually working in a live testing environment? I understand with any new strategy you need to test it for three to four months I totally get that, but sooner or later the software has to show some form of value would you not disagree? And if none of the strategies are profitable then where is the value? Even the pace lays which had a good month last month are having an absolutely dreadful month this month.
So I'm interested to see if anyone is actually making money and on what strategy they are because maybe I'm just looking at the wrong strategies? Another example will be this recent back the favourite on Saturdays, Mondays and Tuesdays, now granted I've only been testing it for two weeks now but it's on like minus 24 points which is some drawdown.
I hope this isn't perceived as negative because it's not meant to be I'm just genuinely interested if anyone is making money in a live environment and it doesn't matter even if their one pound stakes or 50p stakes have they got any strategies that are making some form of profit?
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@john-folan @Dan-MacKinnon are any of your strategies Lay ones, and if so do you use 1% as Stake or Liability? Just wondering.
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I had a spare few minutes at lunchtime today so for a laugh did a quick run of a strategy of backing horses priced at 100+ odds. It's good a good ROI but not sure I could handle the 298 losing streak! It could be fine tuned further by looking at distances etc. so feel free to have a play:
0_1668604763950_rules_export (7).json
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Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell for me I’m only using 3 strategies and they’re all 1%. That’s based on drawdown, strike rate, etc.
It probably depends on the strategy and what you’re comfortable with. When I was doing the same with football trading I had certain targets and if my bank hit that I would up my stake. That’s another way of compounding. The only trouble doing it manually is you’re less likely to compound down after bad days
Im similar to Dan. The bot does it automatically. I've got a couple at 1%, 1 at 2% and one at 5% all based on the drawdown.
Dan is spot on in his observation about compounding as you go along. The less I have to do with the set and forgets the better. Set them up in the morning and forget about them. That way I am not tempted to fiddle. Concentrate on the afternoons scalping instead.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@greg-mitchell for me I’m only using 3 strategies and they’re all 1%. That’s based on drawdown, strike rate, etc.
It probably depends on the strategy and what you’re comfortable with. When I was doing the same with football trading I had certain targets and if my bank hit that I would up my stake. That’s another way of compounding. The only trouble doing it manually is you’re less likely to compound down after bad days
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@dan-mackinnon So, if you have multiple strategies they all get compounded at 1% of bank? or do you have different compound rates for different strategies?
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@greg-mitchell I have it set in Fairbot to use 1% of my bank so it automatically resets after every trade.
The main reason I do that is so I don’t have to worry about it. Once I feel happy with my laying strategies I’ll do like John mentioned and have fixed liability.
I feel more confident letting the bot compound my bank than me doing it! You get less emotionally attached on bad days
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan oh definitely. Compounding is the way forward.
It’s amazing. I’ve got a very similar beaten favourites to Martins on the go. It’s got a lower drawdown so Im compounding at 5%. Gone from £10 liability to £70 in a couple of months while I test it. EVERYONE should be compounding. Literally if it takes great. If it doesn’t then you don’t lose much. Plus no massive drawdown through doubling stakes etc.
Do you compound after every trade, or daily or monthly or something else?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan oh definitely. Compounding is the way forward.
It’s amazing. I’ve got a very similar beaten favourites to Martins on the go. It’s got a lower drawdown so Im compounding at 5%. Gone from £10 liability to £70 in a couple of months while I test it. EVERYONE should be compounding. Literally if it takes great. If it doesn’t then you don’t lose much. Plus no massive drawdown through doubling stakes etc.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan oh definitely. Compounding is the way forward.
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:
Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.
Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.
nice work greg
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.
I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900
Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got
But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.
This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.
The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!
Now stick that liability on a compounding and realise that it’s the way forward
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:
Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.
Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.
Just realised that one needs to be careful if the favourite turns out not to be the horse the software selects, have to make sure the actual favourite does not have a pace rating of 0
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Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.
I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900
Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got
But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.
This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.
The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:
Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.
Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.
Sweet. Thanking you
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@greg-mitchell some amazing work going on here guys! Thanks
