The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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-0.42 points today for me
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@dan-mackinnon I like the fact this is solid even without course filtering! good strategy!
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I did build one based on dob stats. But I reckon we need something that targets the 2-15 odds range for liquidity purposes.
2 not too short on a dob? needs to win obviously
Yeah it is and they normally do to be fair. May as well take the free money. I used to target higher but was missing trades
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I did build one based on dob stats. But I reckon we need something that targets the 2-15 odds range for liquidity purposes.
2 not too short on a dob? needs to win obviously
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I've had a bit of a mess around with C&D winners. I know a few people were asking for something that you can use without bots and I think this might be as close to a set and forget as you can get with horse racing. The biggest downside is that it is still reliant on odds and they will move closer to the off.
My strategy is to back the horse which has won C&D as long as it's between 2.0 to 7.0 ideally 10 minutes before the race start.
I've done the usual and filtered class, race type and courses. I've also filtered so it's in the top 3 but that's not essential. Based on £100 bank with £1 bets these are my results
The strategy is here: 0_1669723580193_rules_export C&D winners.json
I'm going to trade this alongside the software and will post the daily selections here. In all honesty, this is a new strategy and there are some long losing streaks, however, it should be a good indication of what the software can do, how to trade horses without bots, and be a good example for people to ask questions. I'll be as transparent as possible.
If you do want to follow along, just remember the software is there to BACKTEST strategies, it's not a tipping service. To set possible expectations, if we had used £1 stakes since the start of September it would return £17. September would have lost £2, October won £19 and November break even. There was also a losing run of 15 trades.
Now that's all out the way let's go going!... oh wait. There's no selections today
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I did build one based on dob stats. But I reckon we need something that targets the 2-15 odds range for liquidity purposes.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
My flat pace is having a storming month. Really need to look at those and how to reduce the variance. The LLR can be testing.
Horse strategies are flying at the moment, think I need to do an update next couple of weeks. Which strategies do you suggest adding? Also going to develop some Dob and Trob ones myself!
That's what's needed to be honest. I've found a couple but never enough selections. We need the speed ratings. I know Adam will get there. Be interesting to see what difference his new additions make.
id love to see speed ratings added, then can start to look at DOBs and L2B
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
My flat pace is having a storming month. Really need to look at those and how to reduce the variance. The LLR can be testing.
Horse strategies are flying at the moment, think I need to do an update next couple of weeks. Which strategies do you suggest adding? Also going to develop some Dob and Trob ones myself!
Can i request that any strategies that go out come with some small instructions, dont have to be massive just like john has indicated below:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.It's easy done. Then you can just copy and paste into the next days selections etc.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
My flat pace is having a storming month. Really need to look at those and how to reduce the variance. The LLR can be testing.
Horse strategies are flying at the moment, think I need to do an update next couple of weeks. Which strategies do you suggest adding? Also going to develop some Dob and Trob ones myself!
That's what's needed to be honest. I've found a couple but never enough selections. We need the speed ratings. I know Adam will get there. Be interesting to see what difference his new additions make.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
My flat pace is having a storming month. Really need to look at those and how to reduce the variance. The LLR can be testing.
Horse strategies are flying at the moment, think I need to do an update next couple of weeks. Which strategies do you suggest adding? Also going to develop some Dob and Trob ones myself!
Can i request that any strategies that go out come with some small instructions, dont have to be massive just like john has indicated below:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200. -
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Short Odds Lays
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
My short odds are for Wolverhampton and Punchestown. I might have a look at the no of runners and DSLR to see if that makes a difference
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
My flat pace is having a storming month. Really need to look at those and how to reduce the variance. The LLR can be testing.
Horse strategies are flying at the moment, think I need to do an update next couple of weeks. Which strategies do you suggest adding? Also going to develop some Dob and Trob ones myself!
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My flat pace is having a storming month. Really need to look at those and how to reduce the variance. The LLR can be testing.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
Short Odds Lays
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
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@joshua-varley said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon Yep spot on - I think you might be right about the differences being down to the staking- I've been doing fixed stakes thus far. I've also being toying with the timing of entry a little too. Today was ever so slightly a winner, but it's a very fine line! haha
Yeah, it's all down to how you want to trade. With fixed liability it's frustrating when a shorter horse loses because you feel cheated. Then again when a 15.0 horse wins it's nicer having a limit to how much you lose! I went through all the individual results and having 2 losers in a row seems to occur roughly once a month so that's something else to look out for
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@chris-osborne same as what John said. I use my Beaten Fav with fixed liability (a good guide is to look at the maximum drawdown and that gives you an indication of what a bad day will look like, that might help you with the staking). The short odds lays are a slight variation on John's megathread one but it's very similar so imagine we're getting the same ones coming up. I just stake 1% on them as they're close enough to evens most of the time it doesn't make much of a difference with fixed liability.
Those 2 are probably a good starting point and when one loses hopefully the other will balance it out. I don't know if you use a bot but you don't really need it for the beaten favourite which is another reason why it's a good starting strategy.
I'm messing about with another strategy which looks promising and again won't require a bot so hopefully can be used as a set and forget. Once I've finished messing about with what I'm currently doing I'm happy to share it and post selections if anyone wants to follow along
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@john-folan Thanks its appreciated
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon, @John-Folan I'm liking the lay to a set liability approach in the software something I've never considered but been put off by the liabilities you could be seeing.
Which strategy are people using for the LAy short favourites, there's so many floating around.
I've not really used the racing software enough to make it worth my while and need to make a decision over the next couple of months but if I can find a couple of decent and profitible strategies that pay for the software then I'll keep going with it until I have the time to delve into in more detail.
I’m using my short odds lays V2 from the megathread. Beaten Favourites are completely different. They are the liability ones. I tagged it below earlier today from Dans post a week or two ago.
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@dan-mackinnon, @John-Folan I'm liking the lay to a set liability approach in the software something I've never considered but been put off by the liabilities you could be seeing.
Which strategy are people using for the LAy short favourites, there's so many floating around.
I've not really used the racing software enough to make it worth my while and need to make a decision over the next couple of months but if I can find a couple of decent and profitible strategies that pay for the software then I'll keep going with it until I have the time to delve into in more detail.
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Short odds lays lost 3 points today. But to put it in perspective they will lose 370 times out of every 1000. Still a cracking month
