The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Cracking day on the short odds lays. 4/4.
errrr only fired on 2, one won one lost.......................
the level of inconsitency of results can be so frustating, its normally an automation issue i know but i cant follow racing all day. Which races were they john so i can take a look at my logs
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@john-folan thanks john, means a lot
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Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
is there an option in individual trades to take saturdays out of results?
Yes, there's a day of week strategy rule. Before you exclude it, you could also change the results presentation to "Day Of Week" to show the breakdown by day, so you can get an idea of the impact of different days.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Cracking day on the short odds lays. 4/4.
Nice. My bot only fired on 3 of them wonder why the other wasnt placed
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell it’s difficult I think if you have been trading football. The favourite rarely changes. Overs/Match odds etc. horse racing is massively more fluid and so many things can affect that which selection is valid or not.
Definitely! I wasn’t being rude, was just speaking from experience, so much changes and a lot quicker on the horses..
Does my brain in sometimes. Takes a long time to get your head around it. I still get tripped up on occasion. I don’t mind that though. Stops me getting cocky. There’s some good discussions on here and @Nick-Allan has highlighted a lot of things we need to be careful of.
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Cracking day on the short odds lays. 4/4.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell it’s difficult I think if you have been trading football. The favourite rarely changes. Overs/Match odds etc. horse racing is massively more fluid and so many things can affect that which selection is valid or not.
Definitely! I wasn’t being rude, was just speaking from experience, so much changes and a lot quicker on the horses..
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@greg-mitchell it’s difficult I think if you have been trading football. The favourite rarely changes. Overs/Match odds etc. horse racing is massively more fluid and so many things can affect that which selection is valid or not.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan When using a strategy that involves the Favourite, you shouldn't pay much attention to the actual selection, because the favourite can often change right up until the off. So placing a trade on a named selection at 9am, if the favourite changes before the off, you actually haven't followed the strategy.
ah i see, well in fairness to me it doesn't actually explain how to execute the strategy anywhere in the strategy builder. I think this might be a limitation of the software to dummies like myself you don't have that much experience in horse trading how to execute each strategy correctly. All it gives you is a couple of details on prices and that's it. Perhaps it's time for me to take a step back from using the software. I don't find it user friendly in the same way that I do the football software. I'm certain the pros in this community can really get the best out of it but I just can't because I don't understand. You offer a selection in the morning and then you're saying that that selection might not be a favourite then why offer the selection at all? Why don't you just offer the race?
Thank you for explaining it for me I get it now and I'm gonna need some form of automation to select the favourite on the race selection at race start and not the selection that your given in the morning where it clearly states daily qualifying selections. Amazingly my results in the last 2 months have beaten the software results but again im not sure if that would continue.
I can only hope that this is helped some people, it certainly made me understand what I should be doing from now on I'll completely ignore the daily selection that's offered an just trade the race.I think it is very important that before using the software and any strategy you understand how the strategy is picking selections and how that can affect your trade.
For example in this instance Backing the Favourite in Maiden Races at Certain Courses, the actual horse that you back is not important, neither is its form or weight or anything else that can be horse specific, it simply has to be the favourite, and therefore any selection the software gives you is irrelevant.
However, you could add another criteria, for example; the draw, the weight, the pace rating etc. In which case you have introduced a criteria that IS horse specific and therefore the selection the software gives you is of paramount importance.
Stick with it, just make sure you understand the criteria before following a strategy blindly.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell Yep I make you right there. Favourites can change upto the off. If you want to get closer the bets need to be going on as close to the race as possible.
As for my short odd lays, I'm getting pretty much an exact match with the software now. That's fully automated. My only difference lately had been down to Dundalk lays not placing. But that was the stupid country filter i had in BF Bot which I've now removed from as it wasn't needed. I know this is down to slight price differences and the aforementioned Dundalk issue.
August Me -8 Software -7
September Me - +8 Software +4
October Me +1 Software -1
November so far Me +8 Software +10.Yeah ive stopped trading saturdays as you have stated perviously so its a little off for me but its close enough. Its the only startegy i think with mileage from ones ive tested
is there an option in individual trades to take saturdays out of results?
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan When using a strategy that involves the Favourite, you shouldn't pay much attention to the actual selection, because the favourite can often change right up until the off. So placing a trade on a named selection at 9am, if the favourite changes before the off, you actually haven't followed the strategy.
ah i see, well in fairness to me it doesn't actually explain how to execute the strategy anywhere in the strategy builder. I think this might be a limitation of the software to dummies like myself you don't have that much experience in horse trading how to execute each strategy correctly. All it gives you is a couple of details on prices and that's it. Perhaps it's time for me to take a step back from using the software. I don't find it user friendly in the same way that I do the football software. I'm certain the pros in this community can really get the best out of it but I just can't because I don't understand. You offer a selection in the morning and then you're saying that that selection might not be a favourite then why offer the selection at all? Why don't you just offer the race?
Thank you for explaining it for me I get it now and I'm gonna need some form of automation to select the favourite on the race selection at race start and not the selection that your given in the morning where it clearly states daily qualifying selections. Amazingly my results in the last 2 months have beaten the software results but again im not sure if that would continue.
I can only hope that this is helped some people, it certainly made me understand what I should be doing from now on I'll completely ignore the daily selection that's offered an just trade the race. -
@greg-mitchell Yep I make you right there. Favourites can change upto the off. If you want to get closer the bets need to be going on as close to the race as possible.
As for my short odd lays, I'm getting pretty much an exact match with the software now. That's fully automated. My only difference lately had been down to Dundalk lays not placing. But that was the stupid country filter i had in BF Bot which I've now removed from as it wasn't needed. I know this is down to slight price differences and the aforementioned Dundalk issue.
August Me -8 Software -7
September Me - +8 Software +4
October Me +1 Software -1
November so far Me +8 Software +10. -
@nick-allan When using a strategy that involves the Favourite, you shouldn't pay much attention to the actual selection, because the favourite can often change right up until the off. So placing a trade on a named selection at 9am, if the favourite changes before the off, you actually haven't followed the strategy.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@adam Sorry i cant place spreadsheet examples in the chat do ill need to do it on here if i can, appologies all for the long thread
OK so I don't know how to go around explaining this so bear with me and I will do my best to explain it and show you in excel spreadsheets what I mean to back up what I'm saying.
So I'm gonna take a strategy and show you an example this is John Battens back maidens fav strategy. Now every morning you get the selections for this strategy he is an example of the last week:
and every night what I would do is I would record the winners and losers as shown here:
so the colours are as follows, the orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). Hopefully I'm making sense at this point.
So when you extract the individual trades from the results section in the strategy builder section, you get the following:
and the colours are exactly the same, orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). As an FYI I use Race start time to use – official as these trades are placed before the race start.
So my question is why are they so different? Just to explain as well that I trade this particular strategy first thing in the morning so I get the selections up and I place a back bet at say 9 AM, there is no automation involved. I do have other strategies where automation is involved and even they are showing skewed results which I'm more than happy provide you with examples for Martins pace lays and John short odds strategies.Nick, I haven't looked at them all, but if you take the 12:50 Lingfield on the 12th Nov. When you run the daily selections in the morning, Shadow of War was favourite, at the off it wasn't, A Gift of Love was, hence Shadow appears on your first list but not on the 2nd and vice versa for A Gift of Love
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@adam Sorry i cant place spreadsheet examples in the chat do ill need to do it on here if i can, appologies all for the long thread
OK so I don't know how to go around explaining this so bear with me and I will do my best to explain it and show you in excel spreadsheets what I mean to back up what I'm saying.
So I'm gonna take a strategy and show you an example this is John Battens back maidens fav strategy. Now every morning you get the selections for this strategy he is an example of the last week:and every night what I would do is I would record the winners and losers as shown here:
so the colours are as follows, the orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). Hopefully I'm making sense at this point.
So when you extract the individual trades from the results section in the strategy builder section, you get the following:
and the colours are exactly the same, orange is selections picked in the daily qualifiers list on the software. And the green are selections that weren't picked in the mornings daily qualifiers list but for some reason are showing on the individual trades on the results section of the software (as seen in the strategy builder section of the software). As an FYI I use Race start time to use – official as these trades are placed before the race start.
So my question is why are they so different? Just to explain as well that I trade this particular strategy first thing in the morning so I get the selections up and I place a back bet at say 9 AM, there is no automation involved. I do have other strategies where automation is involved and even they are showing skewed results which I'm more than happy provide you with examples for Martins pace lays and John short odds strategies. -
Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
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I'm obviously not very busy working this week, a couple of little tinkers I've been working on. Results to a £1 Stake.
0_1668767694223_Lay Draw Bias.json
0_1668767728178_Back Top Weight.json
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@nick-allan There are lots of reasons why the potential trades presented in advance could differ from what was actually traded. Usually it will be because the prices are not known in advance and the price conditions didn't end up being met even though the other rules were.
There are also factors that can change before the race, such as number of runners or the going.
I'd need to see some examples to be able to give you any specific info. You can PM me the links to the spreadsheets and tell me which selections you're unsure about if you like. For future reference you can also add attachments when logging a new support ticket on the Asana form.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan maybe also upload the strategy. Someone might spot something
its not the strategy its the results (its actually 3 startegies) i can try and explain it but its all the excel examples i would have to add to the tread to show what is happening it would be a very big tread, ill give it a try
