The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

Very Quiet today

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONE TODAY

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.
NONE TODAY

[John Folan]

@ian-parry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh and I ratchet stake as well so I do not reduce if I have a loss.

So you never reduce your stakes? Even when you have a bad run? Doesn't that mean you're eventually going to blow your bank? If you are using stakes which are 2% of your bank and you never reduce it. All it takes is a run of 50 losses - quite possible on a back strategy.

Yep. Like I said depends on the strategy. Pace is on 1%. Slow Horses, Classic Trobs and short odds lays are 2%. It's all about the drawdown % as it increases

[Ryan]

@john-folan yea that is true, anything that you add to them from this point is a bonus - BUT you don't have to.

[Ian Parry]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh and I ratchet stake as well so I do not reduce if I have a loss.

So you never reduce your stakes? Even when you have a bad run? Doesn't that mean you're eventually going to blow your bank? If you are using stakes which are 2% of your bank and you never reduce it. All it takes is a run of 50 losses - quite possible on a back strategy.

[John Folan]

@ian-parry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Thanks mate. Good to know. I have a price range of 2 to 25. Will leave it running for a month or two but might consider shortening it if results don't pick up. Also if you don't mind me asking, how long do you generally test a strategy before you consider upping the stakes? Assuming it is performing well of course.

Ah I have a foolproof method. So I start everything with a £100 or £200 bank. Then either 1 or 2% compounding depending on the max drawdown. If it gains traction it will soon grow. If it doesn't then not much lost. :). You are also not going to be prone to losing runs after upping stakes which has been a major bugbear of mine in the past. Also it really pees me off when something eats into my scalping profits and this negates that. So the short odds lays for example were started on £200 with 2% compounding and are already up to £6.60 stakes. There’s no rush with any of this as no one else but BTC members will have access to these strategies. Especially the pace ones which are Adam’s own design(and a thing of true beauty). Realistically if it grows as it should do those stakes will be £100 by this time next year and that will be 20k a year from just turning a bot on.

Oh and I ratchet stake as well so I do not reduce if I have a loss.

[Ian Parry]

@john-folan Thanks mate. Good to know. I have a price range of 2 to 25. Will leave it running for a month or two but might consider shortening it if results don't pick up. Also if you don't mind me asking, how long do you generally test a strategy before you consider upping the stakes? Assuming it is performing well of course.

[John Folan]

@ian-parry yep I’m about 30 points up since I started it. Did have a bad losing streak but nowhere near what you have had. Had two good wins the last few days as well.

And I missed a 12.5 winner because non runners made one a qualifier. I’ve sorted that now by including all runner numbers in the selections I post but filtering down to between 4-14 on the bot. I’m currently running 4 points down for July.

[Ian Parry]

@John-Folan Have you been running your Pace back strategy lately? I started testing a variation of it and it's started very badly. Just one win out of 42 backs. I didn't fiddle with it much so I assumed most of the selections would be similar to yours. Is your pace back strategy going through a particularly bad run at the moment?

[John Folan]

@ryan And the sheer joy when we realised how profitable they were just backing the win. I like these ones because they are profitable without filtering so you can't go wrong really.

[Ryan]

@john-folan this was we will never lose either, cor I miss those sheets being emailed lol

[John Folan]

Quiet today.

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
NONE TODAY :loudly_crying_face:

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.

[John Folan]

@lee-woodman I’ve also kept a version of this with my base filters so I will check what the place market is like on those too. Might be worth ignoring odds filters all together for the place. We will see.

[John Folan]

@lee-woodman I’ve set the bot up to only get involved if a back bet has been placed on the win so win odds of 2-25 on the same selection. Ignoring the place odds for now u til Adam puts them in the strategy builder properly. I’m just bunging them on at BSP in the place market as well. Haven’t looked at 11 minutes out but I’m sure the liquidity is crap until the last couple of minutes.

[A Former User]

@john-folan What odds range are you using for the place backs or are you just backing the place if the win part hits your criteria?

[John Folan]

Winner at 10.5 along with the place(because why not?) at 3.2. Takes me back to the days of mine and @Ryan ‘s pace project. Except now we can squeeze all the profit there is from it like a juicy lemon. (Sorry I’m on the cold relief. Feel like death and not really sure what day it is).

[A Former User]

@john-folan
I have asked about having place markets included in the software. Its in the planning i think. Once we get that a whole rangle of lower variance options will open up i think.

[A Former User]

@adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Just a suggestion but for the bet placement and stake, on the lay side is there any way we could have a 'stake as liability' option? Its pretty much standard on all the trading tools i have seen so makes sense to add it.

I'm assuming this is self-explanatory but just to make sure.... basically you just mean the figure you enter for the stake value would be the liability instead of the stake?

Hi,
Yes. Thats exactly it. Its a standard option on most trading apps like fairbot, Geeks Toy, Bety Angel etc.

[Adam]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@keith God knows. Racing post I guess? @Adam ??

Yeah we get the forecast price from RP.

[Adam]

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Just a suggestion but for the bet placement and stake, on the lay side is there any way we could have a 'stake as liability' option? Its pretty much standard on all the trading tools i have seen so makes sense to add it.

I'm assuming this is self-explanatory but just to make sure.... basically you just mean the figure you enter for the stake value would be the liability instead of the stake?

[John Folan]

@Holly mentioned to me the other day about backing the place on my flat pace selections. So this morning I downloaded all the individual results and @Adam has added (it may have been there all along but I'm trying to highlight it and I probably ignored it because I can be blinkered sometimes) the place BSP. So I've done a P and L on them. For Speed if you delete all columns after bsp_place and run this formula it will give you a profit and loss per race. just apply it to the whole column.(=IF(P3="Y",(Q3-1)*98%,-1). change the 3 to whatever your first row number is(it will be 2 or 3). Then run a running total calculation. Takes two minutes to see if something is profitable to place or not.

Anyway here are the results. From 494 trades a profit of 126.86. So an ROI of 25 % and a max drawdown of a ridiculously low 8.22%. This software is the gift that keeps giving. Mad.