The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Hi Martin I made a revision to your Martin's Back the Favourite Stragegy in the Hose Racing software. Could you please take a look and tell me what you think.0_1668176769812_rules_export.json
Many thanksPhilip
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Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan ah right got you, i use BA Guadian now so ill have to create a bot, cheers John as i have been using the selections and the bot only fires if they are fav so ill change it
Should solve your problem quite nicely
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@john-folan ah right got you, i use BA Guadian now so ill have to create a bot, cheers John as i have been using the selections and the bot only fires if they are fav so ill change it
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Then Compounding at 1% of a 100 point bank. This between the two would give you over 5k in 18 months. Trading bank built. Feel free to download and mess with it. DSLR filters, probably not a bad place to start. I haven't looked. Not bad work for a Sunday morning and two cups of coffee...
Back The Favourite at 1% MTSa
0_1667125642923_BTFMTSa.json
Lay the Favourite at 1% WThFSu
0_1667125814052_LTFWTFSu.json
I had a question John about this back to favourites on Saturdays Mondays and Tuesdays. So I've applied the filter and it comes up with selections so am I backing those selections if they are the favourite in that race? Or am I back in the favourite in the race? So for example the selection is tinker tailor in the 12:50 in Newcastle, and 10 minutes before the race starts it's overtaken by hello Dolly which then becomes the favourite…………………now my bot would then not execute the trade as tinker tailor is no longer the favourite. Is that correct?
Or have you set the filter in relation to the whoever is the fav in 12:50 at Newcastle and therefore it would just trade the fav in that race no matter what selection (in the above example hello dolly)? The reason I ask is in your short odds lay there is a number of selections highlighted daily but obviously some of those selections aren't going to reach the strategy criteria, so in that strategy trade the race not the selection if you see what I mean?No. Just the favourites whoever it may be near the race. This can be a filter under selection conditions in Bfbotmanager
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Then Compounding at 1% of a 100 point bank. This between the two would give you over 5k in 18 months. Trading bank built. Feel free to download and mess with it. DSLR filters, probably not a bad place to start. I haven't looked. Not bad work for a Sunday morning and two cups of coffee...
Back The Favourite at 1% MTSa
0_1667125642923_BTFMTSa.json
Lay the Favourite at 1% WThFSu
0_1667125814052_LTFWTFSu.json
I had a question John about this back to favourites on Saturdays Mondays and Tuesdays. So I've applied the filter and it comes up with selections so am I backing those selections if they are the favourite in that race? Or am I back in the favourite in the race? So for example the selection is tinker tailor in the 12:50 in Newcastle, and 10 minutes before the race starts it's overtaken by hello Dolly which then becomes the favourite…………………now my bot would then not execute the trade as tinker tailor is no longer the favourite. Is that correct?
Or have you set the filter in relation to the whoever is the fav in 12:50 at Newcastle and therefore it would just trade the fav in that race no matter what selection (in the above example hello dolly)? The reason I ask is in your short odds lay there is a number of selections highlighted daily but obviously some of those selections aren't going to reach the strategy criteria, so in that strategy trade the race not the selection if you see what I mean? -
Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
Still a lot of horses having their first run of the season.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Those pace backs of mine are very testing. 20 points down in October. Already 20 points up in November. What a ride
blimey proper roller coaster :astonished_face:
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Those pace backs of mine are very testing. 20 points down in October. Already 20 points up in November. What a ride
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Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
Still a lot of horses having their first run of the season.
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@nick-allan I think I'll continue with this myself. As there are only a few per day (although none qualified today) it's easier to track your results alongside the software. The other good thing I found with horse racing is the risk/ reward is a lot easier to manage than football. Once we get the football software it'll be interesting to go back to that and see if the same approach works, but for now, hopefully we get a successful horse racing strategy on the go!
As nothing is ever perfect, I had a shocker yesterday on my bot. On 2 races my stop loss failed and I lost my full stake. It's not too bad as I was using the bot to stake a % I'm happy to lose, but just reminded me that with football if a trade lost I would have been guaranteed to lose that full stake. No wonder some weekends would absolutely do your head in!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
According to the software there's been a losing trade at 11.0 five times out of 1,433 trades. Of those five, 3 happened in the same month! That month still finished nearly 19pts in profit.
A breakdown of the major losers from 1,433 trades are:
10pts five times
9.5pts three times
9pts three times
8.8 - 8.2pts six times
7.8 - 7.0 thirteen times
6.8 - 6.0 ten timesThat's not too bad overall
that not bad at all, and if you do have a bad month the next month will probably even it out, its the most effective strategy ive seen since started 3 months ago and what i like about it is there are only 3/4 trades a day. I had some stats that had 25+ selections a day and the drawdowns were dreadful. Now we have had our sniper incident lets see how its effects the results this month. I for one am going to keep going at flat stakes while testing. MY biggest issue at the mo is i keep changing a strategy again and again and again without giving it a chance.
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This post is deleted!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@kevin-pepper I've just done that but changed it to £10 liability with a £100 bank and you get the same results x10 so £618. The biggest losing month is £11. Laying for a fixed liability might be a better way of approaching this strategy.
I also want to check the results to see how often you get 10/1 losers. I can't imagine it'll be that often and just part of the overall risk.
Although saying that, American Sniper won today and that was 10.5 on Betdaq
yep got hit by that sniper too
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According to the software there's been a losing trade at 11.0 five times out of 1,433 trades. Of those five, 3 happened in the same month! That month still finished nearly 19pts in profit.
A breakdown of the major losers from 1,433 trades are:
10pts five times
9.5pts three times
9pts three times
8.8 - 8.2pts six times
7.8 - 7.0 thirteen times
6.8 - 6.0 ten timesThat's not too bad overall
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@kevin-pepper I've just done that but changed it to £10 liability with a £100 bank and you get the same results x10 so £618. The biggest losing month is £11. Laying for a fixed liability might be a better way of approaching this strategy.
I also want to check the results to see how often you get 10/1 losers. I can't imagine it'll be that often and just part of the overall risk.
Although saying that, American Sniper won today and that was 10.5 on Betdaq
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan I've only recently got into horse racing but looking at those stats how many traders would love a strategy which only has 1 losing month in 18?! If you were doing flat stakes that month cost you 1% of your bank. As John has mentioned before, the software isn't perfect but even if we allowed for 10% error it's still decent.
I know there were a couple of comments on the football thread about focusing on one strategy at a time. With the horse racing software, I find it easier to focus on one strategy and use it as a guideline. There will be some differences but if you're roughly in line with the software then happy days!
I'm sure the thought of laying at up to 10/1 and hitting a couple of losers is pretty scary for most of us. So I thought I'd try running the Pace Lays with Dan's revisions but with a £1 liability rather than stake. It gave me a profit of £61.81 and ROI of 4%. Not massive but it does mean the high price losers won't hit the bank so hard...
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@nick-allan I've only recently got into horse racing but looking at those stats how many traders would love a strategy which only has 1 losing month in 18?! If you were doing flat stakes that month cost you 1% of your bank. As John has mentioned before, the software isn't perfect but even if we allowed for 10% error it's still decent.
I know there were a couple of comments on the football thread about focusing on one strategy at a time. With the horse racing software, I find it easier to focus on one strategy and use it as a guideline. There will be some differences but if you're roughly in line with the software then happy days!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
After watching Martin's video of his Pace Lays strategy I went through it in the software. It looks like a decent strategy with £299 profit from flat stakes and only 2 losing months (May 22 -10.55 and Jan 22 -4.34) the best month is Sept 22 with 45.14 and the next 5 are between 27-33.
I made 2 minor adjustment which was to remove Class 1 races and change the start time from "actual" to "official". This took the overall profit up to £329.95, a 10% increase. It also reduced the longest losing run from 4 to 3. It changes May from being the worst performing month to being 3.95 in profit, and January is now the only losing month -1.01. It does bring the most profitable month down from 45.14 to 42.22 and only 4 months between 27-33, however it's a better P/L over all months.
In addition to this, I broke down each month to get an idea of how it'll feel to trade this day to day. I've put the record below
As you can see, even though there's a 86% SR there are some pretty rough losing days, but no outstanding profitable days. If you follow this strategy you have to be prepared that most months you will have a day that loses 10+ pts. On 4 occasions you'll have 3 days in a row that lose and one of them could well be 10-15% of your bank. I know on the football thread when we have a bad weekend it's easy to feel defeated, this way you should be mentally prepared. Also, it shows you don't have to get on loads of trades, there are only 2 months which are 100 plus.
Finally, I think it's always good to run strategies both as flat stakes and compounded. This shows what would seem like a profitable strategy with flat stakes soon becomes a disaster when you start adjusting them. For this I used £100 bank and 1% stakes, the overall profit is £2,246. Jan 22 still remains the only losing month with -14.42 now, but Sept 22 is 593.08 and the next 4 months are all 100+
I just wanted to share this as a couple of people have asked about the horse racing software. It won't magic a winning strategy for you, but helps you prepare for the rollercoaster! I never truly appreciated how great the software is for doing that and how good trading horses can be
Some great analysis dan, ive been testing this to £1 stakes and started the beginning of october so only have one month of results and that was £22.36 so +22.36 which is very impressive, but yes the dreaded 11.0 lay loss hasnt come but that will be a bank wrecker and if you get 2 in a day its devestating. I think the worse i had in oct was 6.8. V intresting about taking out class 1 races, perhaps it means horse and jockeys perform better in C1 and you maybe subjected to a big loss but definately worth taking all C1 races out of the filter on that evidence. Good work buddy
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Then Compounding at 1% of a 100 point bank. This between the two would give you over 5k in 18 months. Trading bank built. Feel free to download and mess with it. DSLR filters, probably not a bad place to start. I haven't looked. Not bad work for a Sunday morning and two cups of coffee...
Back The Favourite at 1% MTSa
0_1667125642923_BTFMTSa.json
Lay the Favourite at 1% WThFSu
0_1667125814052_LTFWTFSu.json
wow!!! some very intresting stuff john, ive stopped the shorts odds lays on saturday as both yourself and others have come up with some compellling arguements backed up with great data. Think ill add this back the fav to my testing strategies as i like it and i have a bot ready to go. I take it this back the fav MTS is at any odds? i noticed below that results for 4 - 4.9 was poor which was odd, so just wanted to check that it would be backing at any BSP odds?
