The BTC Horse Racing Thread

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@john-folan I'm looking into it as I've seen one of the last youtube videos of Ryan and he was talking about the same subject. But since I don't know how to use the software nor have experience in horse trading I'll wait for somebody that can help me too.

Martin

@john-folan

@Razvan-Alexandru wants to know what to put in to find horses that dob 70%?

John Folan

Exploring dobbing in the software at the moment.

70% career dob rate, 100% last 3 races dob rate, class 4 and 5 only is profitable.

Higher class rating waste of time and lower class is terrible.

Something is really nagging at me to get something going but I can’t put my finger on it. I shall persevere.

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@philip-brogan looks good, will need forward testing

@John-Folan can you give a second opinion?

Actually, did it tonight. Looks alright. Deffo needs forward testing

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@philip-brogan looks good, will need forward testing

@John-Folan can you give a second opinion?

I’ll give it a run through in the morning.

Martin

@philip-brogan looks good, will need forward testing

@John-Folan can you give a second opinion?

Philip Brogan

Hi Martin I made a revision to your Martin's Back the Favourite Stragegy in the Hose Racing software. Could you please take a look and tell me what you think.0_1668176769812_rules_export.json
Many thanks

Philip

John Folan

Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.

John Folan

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan ah right got you, i use BA Guadian now so ill have to create a bot, cheers John as i have been using the selections and the bot only fires if they are fav so ill change it

Should solve your problem quite nicely

Nick Allan

@john-folan ah right got you, i use BA Guadian now so ill have to create a bot, cheers John as i have been using the selections and the bot only fires if they are fav so ill change it

John Folan

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Then Compounding at 1% of a 100 point bank. This between the two would give you over 5k in 18 months. Trading bank built. Feel free to download and mess with it. DSLR filters, probably not a bad place to start. I haven't looked. Not bad work for a Sunday morning and two cups of coffee...

Back The Favourite at 1% MTSa
0_1667125642923_BTFMTSa.json

Lay the Favourite at 1% WThFSu
0_1667125814052_LTFWTFSu.json

I had a question John about this back to favourites on Saturdays Mondays and Tuesdays. So I've applied the filter and it comes up with selections so am I backing those selections if they are the favourite in that race? Or am I back in the favourite in the race? So for example the selection is tinker tailor in the 12:50 in Newcastle, and 10 minutes before the race starts it's overtaken by hello Dolly which then becomes the favourite…………………now my bot would then not execute the trade as tinker tailor is no longer the favourite. Is that correct?
Or have you set the filter in relation to the whoever is the fav in 12:50 at Newcastle and therefore it would just trade the fav in that race no matter what selection (in the above example hello dolly)? The reason I ask is in your short odds lay there is a number of selections highlighted daily but obviously some of those selections aren't going to reach the strategy criteria, so in that strategy trade the race not the selection if you see what I mean?

No. Just the favourites whoever it may be near the race. This can be a filter under selection conditions in Bfbotmanager

Nick Allan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Then Compounding at 1% of a 100 point bank. This between the two would give you over 5k in 18 months. Trading bank built. Feel free to download and mess with it. DSLR filters, probably not a bad place to start. I haven't looked. Not bad work for a Sunday morning and two cups of coffee...

Back The Favourite at 1% MTSa
0_1667125642923_BTFMTSa.json

Lay the Favourite at 1% WThFSu
0_1667125814052_LTFWTFSu.json

I had a question John about this back to favourites on Saturdays Mondays and Tuesdays. So I've applied the filter and it comes up with selections so am I backing those selections if they are the favourite in that race? Or am I back in the favourite in the race? So for example the selection is tinker tailor in the 12:50 in Newcastle, and 10 minutes before the race starts it's overtaken by hello Dolly which then becomes the favourite…………………now my bot would then not execute the trade as tinker tailor is no longer the favourite. Is that correct?
Or have you set the filter in relation to the whoever is the fav in 12:50 at Newcastle and therefore it would just trade the fav in that race no matter what selection (in the above example hello dolly)? The reason I ask is in your short odds lay there is a number of selections highlighted daily but obviously some of those selections aren't going to reach the strategy criteria, so in that strategy trade the race not the selection if you see what I mean?

John Folan

Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
Still a lot of horses having their first run of the season.

Nick Allan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Those pace backs of mine are very testing. 20 points down in October. Already 20 points up in November. What a ride

blimey proper roller coaster :astonished_face:

John Folan

Those pace backs of mine are very testing. 20 points down in October. Already 20 points up in November. What a ride

John Folan

Classic Trobs: Trob any between 3.5-9 as close to the off as you can. Avoid Heavy Ground.
Still a lot of horses having their first run of the season.

Dan MacKinnon

@nick-allan I think I'll continue with this myself. As there are only a few per day (although none qualified today) it's easier to track your results alongside the software. The other good thing I found with horse racing is the risk/ reward is a lot easier to manage than football. Once we get the football software it'll be interesting to go back to that and see if the same approach works, but for now, hopefully we get a successful horse racing strategy on the go!

As nothing is ever perfect, I had a shocker yesterday on my bot. On 2 races my stop loss failed and I lost my full stake. It's not too bad as I was using the bot to stake a % I'm happy to lose, but just reminded me that with football if a trade lost I would have been guaranteed to lose that full stake. No wonder some weekends would absolutely do your head in!

Nick Allan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

According to the software there's been a losing trade at 11.0 five times out of 1,433 trades. Of those five, 3 happened in the same month! That month still finished nearly 19pts in profit.

A breakdown of the major losers from 1,433 trades are:
10pts five times
9.5pts three times
9pts three times
8.8 - 8.2pts six times
7.8 - 7.0 thirteen times
6.8 - 6.0 ten times

That's not too bad overall

that not bad at all, and if you do have a bad month the next month will probably even it out, its the most effective strategy ive seen since started 3 months ago and what i like about it is there are only 3/4 trades a day. I had some stats that had 25+ selections a day and the drawdowns were dreadful. Now we have had our sniper incident lets see how its effects the results this month. I for one am going to keep going at flat stakes while testing. MY biggest issue at the mo is i keep changing a strategy again and again and again without giving it a chance.

Nick Allan

This post is deleted!

Nick Allan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@kevin-pepper I've just done that but changed it to £10 liability with a £100 bank and you get the same results x10 so £618. The biggest losing month is £11. Laying for a fixed liability might be a better way of approaching this strategy.

I also want to check the results to see how often you get 10/1 losers. I can't imagine it'll be that often and just part of the overall risk.

Although saying that, American Sniper won today and that was 10.5 on Betdaq

yep got hit by that sniper too