The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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I have just started a similar test (well, on hold after last week while i reevaluate). Last week had the biggest DD ever. Massively blew out the previous 2 year record. Though i dont think the software will show that.
The issue is the LAy Beaten Fav and back C&D winner. Both use 'favourite' as a creiteria and simple fact is you cant use it. It doesnt work. Its ok on the back the fav strat because that triggers in the last 10 seconds and looks at a low odds range but for the others its just crap. Last week i lost several points the software ignores because the top 3 just swap position several times in the last 10 mins. YOu could argue that it should even out over time (as i did pick up a couple of points from the inconsistency) but thats gambling, its not something thats verifiable, backtestable or could be replicated.
Interesting thing is both strategies are profitable withougt that condition (and the lay beaten fav actually seems to be better with recent berformance without it) so this morning i am going to re-download all the results and re-analyse both with the condition (to see how misleading the software actually is) and without to see if the DD is manageable running the strategies in a more reliable form.
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@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan do you lay to a liability on all your strategies that aren't short odds? Is this to bring the risk reward under control a bit more? If so what sort of staking have you been using?
I do yes and quite heavy depending on drawdown.
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@john-folan do you lay to a liability on all your strategies that aren't short odds? Is this to bring the risk reward under control a bit more? If so what sort of staking have you been using?
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@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@caroline said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan
Lower rating on courses that don't suit pace horses is indeed profitable. Lots of variance obviously
There is definitely something in these pace. I'm going to try a couple of things
Keep us posted John, if you get involved then so will I
I’m still on my old pace stuff. Been frustrating lately.
There’s deffo something here. In the meantime look at the beaten faves. Laying to a liability. Shite run lately but have been good for the last 9 months
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@caroline said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan
Lower rating on courses that don't suit pace horses is indeed profitable. Lots of variance obviouslyThere is definitely something in these pace. I'm going to try a couple of things
Keep us posted John, if you get involved then so will I
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@caroline If you literally look at horses rated 8,10,12 for that race, odds 6-25 and filter out the crap courses that don't like pace its hugely profitable. As always with backing lots of variance
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@caroline said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan
Lower rating on courses that don't suit pace horses is indeed profitable. Lots of variance obviouslyThere is definitely something in these pace. I'm going to try a couple of things
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@john-folan
Lower rating on courses that don't suit pace horses is indeed profitable. Lots of variance obviously -
@jonathan-jones
This is one where I looked at the conditions/rules and thought "Back fitted" however I was playing with it to day and I think at its hearts its probably a sound strategy. I stripped out all the flannel and added race courses (something I am reluctant to do normally) that according to this article suits pace horses
https://myracing.com/guides/guide-to-racing/course-course-guide-betting/ Bingo! It 'Feels' more realistic -
I’m expecting big things from the pace backs March onwards. Roll on Doncaster(first flat meet of the season).
These have been good since April last year(better after Adam sorted the ratings). Couple of shitty months mostly due to snow f*****g the racing and ratings.
Interesting to look at the lower pace ratings for the jumps. Worth a look if you are bored.
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@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I’m the same as you lads, just those two strategies for me also, although I only added Back the Fav last week.
I was only doing John’s prior to that for a couple of months, the rest don’t suit me at all
I like that back the favourite. I've added it as it's silly not to.
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I'm planning to run all the members strategies on autopilot through the bot for three months minimum to see how they perform. Obviously on the back and forward tests they all look great but have been so so for the couple of weeks I've been running them. In theory with a portfolio of winning strategies they would just be left to run and compound the stakes over time, but my worries are (a) is the strategy as executed by the bot an accurate reflection of the strategy and (b) is the strategy truly profitable or has it been back fitted to some extent? The positive with (b) is that on forward testing they have performed really well.
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I’m the same as you lads, just those two strategies for me also, although I only added Back the Fav last week.
I was only doing John’s prior to that for a couple of months, the rest don’t suit me at all
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Just out of interest is anyone else possibly doubling up on backing favourites strategies? for example is anyone out there using the back the favourite 3.0 and the course and distance winner simultaneously?
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@fraser-cord Yeah that's fantastic Fraser I agree with you those are the two strategies that I'm thinking of possibly taking up to higher stakes and just using those two as the lays revenue and sortware results don’t watch up. Just out of interest is anyone else possibly doubling up on backing favourites strategies? for example is anyone out there using the back the favourite 3.0 and the course and distance winner simultaneously?
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@nick-allan If it helps, I am only trading johns short odds lays and back fav now. And its for the exact reasons you are saying. Was too time consuming filtering through and my results never matched. Like you i was always down vs the software.
I now set my bot for 10 mins in the morning before work at check for 10 mins at night, thats it. Time is money so for 20 mins a day im more than covering costs and making it worthwhile. Taken a few profitless months to realise it though.
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@john-folan yeah im laying to stakes, on low stakes as its in a testing phase, the only 2 that seem to be profitable is your shorts odds lay which is great but only around 2-3 pts profit and last month was brutal so i cant up the stakes.
And back the fav 3.0 that’s looks amazing in back test and is ticking along in testing
On some of the YouTube videos that I've been watching and on the podcasts Ryan and Martin have said that there are guys out there that are making £700/£800 pounds a month on the software and I just can't see how they're doing that unless they have big banks and the stakes are a lot higher than mine. I mean if there's staking £100 per point then yeah eight points is possibly doable but if they are staking say £20 how are they getting that much profit?I know you have to be patient in regards to any trading but surely there comes a point where you've got to be making at least enough money to cover the cost of the software? Very difficult to make big profits in testing, I totally get that, and you're benefiting by identifying something that's consistently profitable so over time you could look at upping the stakes, but at the moment I can't do that because there isn't one strategy that's consistently profitable.
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@chris-osborne yes chris sorry i mean lay the beaten fav
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
not sure if anyones doing the lay the fav but yesterday was brutal!!!! i weas WFH and the big 15.0 winner hit at the time my bot fires which is 6 secs before race start (yeah i know they never go off on time) and 2 secs later it went to 15.5 and 16.0 which meant it wouldnt qualify. Im thinking of lowering my bot to 14.0 as those bloody odds move so much in the last 10 secs before the off, i assume its all the scaplers?
i have to say im struggyling with this strategy, having quite a difficult time of late, anyone else feeling the same way?
My LTBF has taken a battering the last month. I was on that one yesterday too. I’m running a lay to liability and a lay to stake(on much lower stakes).
Yes you are right on the scalpers. Last 10 minutes are brutal. This is why set and forget on the horses is so difficult unlike the football.
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@nick-allan do you mean lay the beaten favourite as the lay the favourite is a short odds strategy at 2.4 max odds
Luckily I was driving yesterday didnt get chance to do much
