The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@jonathan-jones Yeah the three strategies that I'm using is the short odds lays, lay the beaten favourite, and back the favourite, and of course all three of those strategies utilise the favourite and we all know the issues that we've had in the past so I won't bring those up again. Yeah I'm checking the rules and making sure that I've got everything set up correctly but I'm still seeing these discrepancies. I don't know if it's a Bet Angel issue…………………. I've spent afternoons where I've literally checked every single trade and it seems to be firing correctly.
The only thing I can do is continue to forward test an ignore the back testing but of course that a big part of the software success, so you can see my frustration. 10 mins out the odds can fly all over the place, fav can become 5th favs so I not sure that’s a good metric, id prefer something at the race start (and of course a lot don’t go off on time either making it even harder!)Ive not looked at C&D but basically I cant make these strats reconcile so little point in trying to add more, it will make me tear my hair out more
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Depends what the strategy is. There are some obvious issues like that which we have discussed over and over. In terms of the Back the C&D winner there is also the fact it has the number of selections criteria (which i think Adam is going to look at in terms of giving us more options). Its looking for bets from 10 mins out but already knows how many selections there will be. Obviously we cant know that. At the moment i am calling them 'impossible strategies'. I think it is important to remember the software is executing them exaclty and correctly, its just you wont be able to.
I have seen differences with simple ones over the past few days BUT i have been messing around over the past few days too so that could well be down to me. I would say double check the strategies you are using to make sure all the rules aew actually capable of being followed. Remove everything that not either an obvious 'form' thing that the filter will pick up or a simple odds criteria. You should see the consistency pick up then.
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I think it's the moment the problem is that the software results and my results are so different and I can't figure out if that's an issue with the bot not firing correctly or it's simply the conditions that the software sets? I know there's a big issue at the moment with the favourites in the fact that it's taken at BSP and obviously favourites can move around so much in the last five minutes before any race because of scalpers moving money in the market. The issue with that is the I can't really trust the backtesting so it's all about forward testing for me which means I have to keep the stakes low which means I'm not making any money to cover the costs of the software.
If I'm perfectly honest I'm getting a bit frustrated with it. I've got the software for another five months and hopefully I can find a couple of strategies that will make it work and this issue with the favourite gets resolved so the software results are similar to my results [although I realised there is going to be some variation but not the amount I’m getting] -
@john-folan ...bit late for that, its all dropped out!!!
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@karl-pick said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
After a dodgy 10 days, where I began to doubt everything the last 3 days have turned a massive corner, hopefully it continues!!!
Horse trading will send you grey lol.
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@karl-pick
I downloaded the individual resaults for all the strategies i trade. Grouped by day to see how drawdown etc would work with a portfolio approach. What is obvious is you can get a period of several days where your balance goes down, then up to a month as it basically flatlines before that drawdown period is done. In that context 10 days is nothing. -
@jonathan-jones I make you right on the flat pace backs. The AW is profitable, but looking at turf only, these seem golden on the turf March through September. I am running a different version looking at the rating for that particular race and it looks good for March through October. Flat season runs March to November but that really is the arse end.
These look a good addition for those months.
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After a dodgy 10 days, where I began to doubt everything the last 3 days have turned a massive corner, hopefully it continues!!!
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Very good day yesterday. I am running:
Back C&D winner (slightly modified so its possible to trade)
Back Fave v3
Lay beaten Fave
Low Odds Lays
Pace Lays
Pace Backs (Nothing on this till next month earliest i dont think)Only on sim till the end of the month so i can check the automation but plus 14.78 points yesterday. Looks like a good mix of backs and lays. STill got to go through them to check with the backtest etc but makes a nice change. Feb has been a bit crap so far.
EDIT#
So, just gone throughthe backtest for yesterday and its a pretty close match. Backtest says i should of got 14.6 points so thats close enough for me. If anyone is interested the breakdown was (according to backtest but no reason to doubt it):Back C&D winner: 8.81
Back Fave v3: -0.06
Lay beaten Fave: 0.98
Low Odds Lays: 1.97
Pace Lays: 2.94 -
@lee-colvin I had;
Jered Maddox at 17:30 Dundalk @ 5.8
Ghumama at 19:30 Dundalk @ 6.4
Local Bay at 19:35 Southwell @ 2.2
Bot had a few misses too though so ended up +3.5ish points. No short odds lays for me, although I may have missed them as loaded the tips manually after some of the races had already finished.
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@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
What was your two today matey? Just the one that fired for me, 14:35 at Kelso which was a lovely little winner
Had one at Dundalk as well. I wouldn’t worry about them not firing there all the time. It’s one of the less profitable courses.
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1/1 for me on short odds
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@paul-foster The above at Kelso was a SOL mate, it’s crazy how we all get slightly different results eh? Makes it even more interesting
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@lee-colvin bot didn't fire any short odd lays today, but the C&D winners was more than enough to make up for it.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
What was your two today matey? Just the one that fired for me, 14:35 at Kelso which was a lovely little winner
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I had a few good wins on some of the backing strategies today, haven't got back to the bot to check which strategy they came from!
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
Just need back the fav to start producing now, been poor for a good few weeks.
Have made up everything i lost from those 2 terrible days at the end of January on the short odds lays, long may this continue and hope the profit rolls on now. -
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
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@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
0_1676290841246_Pace Backs New.json
A new version of the pace backs taking into account what another user suggested. The thing i really like about the equity curve on this is there is a clear pattern. The equity curve is similar in both years, for example shows good growth over the summer but in both years October and November are flat.
Really interested in these. Let’s hope they start like a rocket in March as is suggested
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6.5 points in two days, flying this month John
