The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Chris-Osborne I agree that’s definitely the upside.
Just thinking Maria staking or something similar gives you the best of both worlds in a way.
@Martin Do you use it in practice?
I was very tempted to go that way as I’m not using automation yet and in some ways it’s easier to place trades with this method as well.
Only reason I didn’t go that route was doing a comparison over the whole data set it did look like laying to liability was more profitable but not by much
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@andy-donnelly I like Maria staking a lot
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Switched from fixed stake to fixed liability on some lay strategies and sods law first day of it today, I was considerably worse off because several short priced selections won their races.
Question - Has or is anyone using a Maria staking method or something similar?
I know it’s only one day but feel like laying to liability relies on your shorter priced selections performing really
Look at this another way what if a pace lay bet was a loser at say 10-1 instead of losing £90 on a £10 liability you lose £10.
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Switched from fixed stake to fixed liability on some lay strategies and sods law first day of it today, I was considerably worse off because several short priced selections won their races.
Question - Has or is anyone using a Maria staking method or something similar?
I know it’s only one day but feel like laying to liability relies on your shorter priced selections performing really well.
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@Adam or any other horse software experts
Hi, I'm trying to work out how I can select a Favourite to Lay but only if the 2nd Favourite price is say lower than 5. I am ok with my favourite selection. I can see there's BSP Rank so I'll select if 2 (for the 2nd fav) but how do I then link a rule regarding the 2nd favourite's price? I assume I need a rule group?
Any help much appreciated
Thanks
Kevin -
Today's updates on the horse racing software are below. If you don't see today's date at the top of the Changelog tab in the software, refresh the page and clear your browser cache for https://horse-racing.betfairtradingcommunity.com:
Updated distance rule to round to nearest furlong
Previously, we would only count whole furlongs. For example, a race with a distance of 15f 180y would previously have been classed as 15f. Now it is classed as 16f. Added 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite price rules
You can now build strategies based on 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite price. You can also compare them to each other, e.g. "2nd favourite price is double the favourite price" (NOTE: THIS IS BASED ON BSP) Added 2nd and 3rd to horse equipment rule
So you can now query things like "2nd race for horse since wind operation" Fixed commission issue with first trade in resultset
Previously, even if there was an overall market profit, the very first trade in a resultset would not have commission deducted if it was the only selection in that race Added prices toggle to "max qualifiers" option
You can choose the stage at which races are filtered out based on the number of qualifiers in the race.I want to make sure that last one is explained well in the software as it's a bit confusing. Any feedback on the tooltip wording is welcome:
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@karl-pick
Thats an interesting approach. Obviously you cant backtest that in the software but you could easily pull all the required data from the software and backtest it in MS Access or somthing like that.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@karl-pick said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
is that the one on the presets?
Yes,this month if you stake at £1 stake, I do not do races with 3 qualifiers and split bank on two qualifying runners in betting % to return roughly the same if winning.
bets 80 Winners 24 stakes £80 profit £20.88
These are my figures so will differ slightly with others as they probably do different splits etc.
Since January 1ST 2023....profit is £35.99 per £1 stake using same system
So I take it that the course and distance winner is set up for qualifiers as opposed to the race? and what I mean by this is if you look at back the favourite you're only backing the favourite in the race and of course that can be different from the daily selection because the favourite can change over the course of the day and especially in the last 5 mins before a race start, so I set up my bot to just fire on the favourite of that race say 14:00 at kempton. If you're talking about more than one qualifier then it's not the race that you trade, it's the qualifier selection like in lay the beaten favourite? of course I need to have a look at the rules on the strategy and I'll have a look at that tonight but of course if it's based on more than one qualifier and you have three qualifiers how do decide which of the two qualifiers out of the three too follow if that makes sense?
If there is 3 qualifiers I do not trade in the race.
If there is 2, I would split % liquidity if they both fall into the price range, for roughly same Winnings for example,
If two qualifiers where 3/1 +6 /1, I would have 66% of stake on 3/1 and 33% on 6/1shot, for roughly equal payout if either wins.
Hope that helps.......But Like I said I have my own way and do my own diligence, therefore I sometimes get different prices to standard. -
Hi Guys,
Just a quick one, I don’t know if it’s been highlighted previously.
On the C&D strategy it’s bringing up selections for Southwell later today.
Southwell has 2 courses and when you run the strategies for each, the AW historically comes back with a negative return (todays meeting) but the jumps course shows a positive return.
There a few courses that have this, Lingfield springs to mind so maybe running different strategies for Aw/Flat/Chase would benefit strategies such as this.
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@karl-pick again im getting different results and they seem to lie up with the software results and this month BTF is down 13 points? jan was 20 points up so overall its 7 pts up which is good, i just have different results. I think out of the 3 strats i do now this is one that im goign to take forward and if i can figure out why short odds bots isnt firing the same as per software results i can take that forward too. But im dumping other lay strategies
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@karl-pick said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
is that the one on the presets?
Yes,this month if you stake at £1 stake, I do not do races with 3 qualifiers and split bank on two qualifying runners in betting % to return roughly the same if winning.
bets 80 Winners 24 stakes £80 profit £20.88
These are my figures so will differ slightly with others as they probably do different splits etc.
Since January 1ST 2023....profit is £35.99 per £1 stake using same system
So I take it that the course and distance winner is set up for qualifiers as opposed to the race? and what I mean by this is if you look at back the favourite you're only backing the favourite in the race and of course that can be different from the daily selection because the favourite can change over the course of the day and especially in the last 5 mins before a race start, so I set up my bot to just fire on the favourite of that race say 14:00 at kempton. If you're talking about more than one qualifier then it's not the race that you trade, it's the qualifier selection like in lay the beaten favourite? of course I need to have a look at the rules on the strategy and I'll have a look at that tonight but of course if it's based on more than one qualifier and you have three qualifiers how do decide which of the two qualifiers out of the three too follow if that makes sense?
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@nick-allan ...the Back the Favourite is doing OK as well since January 1st 2023, that is £19.51 per £1 stake up.
But it is - £3 to a £1 stake in February.At least doing these you can monitor your losses easier as it is fixed loss on every bet and can be better in my opinion when bank building.
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Something has changed. With LBF in particular i dont think thats just variance. I did a reoptimisation of the courses with a bias on more recent results but it didnt stop yesterdays poor show. I saved the results so will keep track going forward to see if its any better.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
is that the one on the presets?
Yes,this month if you stake at £1 stake, I do not do races with 3 qualifiers and split bank on two qualifying runners in betting % to return roughly the same if winning.
bets 80 Winners 24 stakes £80 profit £20.88
These are my figures so will differ slightly with others as they probably do different splits etc.
Since January 1ST 2023....profit is £35.99 per £1 stake using same system
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@nick-allan that's the one!
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@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The big lays are causing serious damage this month.
Thing is i am wondering if there isnt something more long term going on. LBF for example has had steadily reducing returns for a while. If you look at the red graph (with the trades/strike rate) you will see its average strike rate has been subtly declining for several months. Pace lays is similar though the change is much more subtly (apart from this month so could be vairance). Both are seeing their worst performance ever. Over almost 2 years of data, steadily declining performance with the worst performance ever now. Think they might be done (at least in their current form).
Fundementally they seem like good strategies so i am wondering what has changed. Any of the more experienced members want to offer some ideas because those graphs show more than just variance and its a lot more than just 'winter'. I experimented with re-optimizing the courses giving a bias to more recent data (so september onwards or last March onwards). Both do sort the problem but had a bigger negative effect on 2021 data than i hoped. Is that too much curve fit or is a bias to recent data a valid idea? Wondering because i think out of all the variables one that could change over time is course layout.
yeah they are in metdown and i think i may have to stop using it as they 3 months live testing on small stakes has been so bad, i dont know if you can lay to a % of bank in betangel, i know you can on BFBM but again i dont know if that going to make it profitable? of course it will protect you from a 10-14 pt loss on the big odds horses that win, i dont know if you decrease the odds say 3-10 it makes it any better?
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@karl-pick said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@david-milligan .....Course and Distance are doing very well at the minute, if your building.
is that the one on the presets?
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I am on sim till the end of the month to make sure my automation is right so i wont change it yet as it would mess up my results but there is no way i would go live with those big lays at stakes, its just got to be liabilty based. Particularly since the max DD in the past 2 years is happening now and its breking its max DD record every few days.
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@jonathan-jones Yes I've definitely been convinced that the 2% lay stakes was NOT a good idea and have changed everything in BFBM.
I know that @John-Folan mentioned he staked according to the maximum drawdown before, I'm not entirely sure the logistics of that but sounds like a sensible thing to do - build in a margin of safety and just let things play out.
