The BTC Horse Racing Thread

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A long shot but does anyone know of a site that would hold data on the odds of winning horses per year. By that I mean maybe % winners that started odds on, the % upto 10/1 etc.

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@greg-mitchell mine didn't today, just dropped them in manually. Wasn't 100% sure it was something wrong with the URL so didn't put a support ticket in

Greg Mitchell

Anybody else's tips not autoloading into BFBM?

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@jonathan-jones smart way to look at it

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@martin
Its all of them (almost).
Back C&D Winner (But i split it into 3 for the types and reworked the courses specific to each race type)
Back Favourite v3
Back Pace Horse (Its a small change to the preset but i posted the update on this thread a couple of weeks back)
Lay Beaten Favourite (i reworked the courses on this one but i did it over a shorter period. So i excluded the first 6 months from the backtest while i optimised the courses)
Short Odds Lays
and finally my own Laying at odds 3 to 7 in AW and Hurdle horses that have never won at that distance or on that course.

So, pretty much just whats already available. after watching your video going throug hthe december (i think) results I was wondering what would happen if you traded them all as a portfolio. So i downloaded all the individual results and grouped by day. Its OK but was some room for improvement. So i just changed a few in ways to smooth out the equity curve, reduce DD (even at the expense of total profit) to make them a bit safer to trade as a portfolio. Spent most of Feb getting the mix right and sorting my automation. Went live with it on March 1st.

Martin

@jonathan-jones which strategy is this mate? looks great!

David Milligan

@jonathan-jones I changed the LBF filter to stop at 11 max odds. Overall results didn't change much so I was happy to do it to allow the staking plan to work

John Folan

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Damn good day yesterday. Plus 20.5 points. And, given i am running all the strats only a 1 point difference between actual and backtest is even better.

A while ago there was a bit of talk about Maria staking for the big lays. Does anyone use it? I did a quick analysis for my experiment and it looks pretty good. I didnt do it exactly (it looks like it staircases and i couldnt test just staircasing the lays) but its not reduced profitabilty too much but has reduced drawdown significantly.

Normal 1% stake
Biggest Loss Day: -23.21 points
Biggest Win Day: 60.72 points
Average: 5.07 points
Max DD: 38.4%
Total Balance (points) 1871.34

1% stake (Maria on Lays)
Biggest Loss Day: -17.31 points
Biggest Win Day: 57.89 points
Average: 4.1 points
Max DD: 21.7%
Total Balance (points) 1536.85

That looks like a good trade off. In practice its probably about 3 weeks longer to hit milestones in terms of balance and stake sizing but that drawdown reduction is tempting. Just got to figure out how the hell i am going to implement it in fairbot.

Not the worst idea that and you can set it up in bfbm as one of the staking options easily enough.

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@david-milligan
Maria Staking plan goes to max odds of 11 so Lay Beaten fav is a tad more than that. It looks like a good start though. My Fairbot stuff is all automated (with scripted creation of the strategy files) so i need to have a think how to add this in. Might have an idea. Will test it out today.

David Milligan

@jonathan-jones brilliant day yesterday! I'm running Maria staking on the longer odds lay systems - so far so good. BFBM has a built in Maria setting though, might be a bit of a pain setting it manually each day in FB

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Damn good day yesterday. Plus 20.5 points. And, given i am running all the strats only a 1 point difference between actual and backtest is even better.

A while ago there was a bit of talk about Maria staking for the big lays. Does anyone use it? I did a quick analysis for my experiment and it looks pretty good. I didnt do it exactly (it looks like it staircases and i couldnt test just staircasing the lays) but its not reduced profitabilty too much but has reduced drawdown significantly.

Normal 1% stake
Biggest Loss Day: -23.21 points
Biggest Win Day: 60.72 points
Average: 5.07 points
Max DD: 38.4%
Total Balance (points) 1871.34

1% stake (Maria on Lays)
Biggest Loss Day: -17.31 points
Biggest Win Day: 57.89 points
Average: 4.1 points
Max DD: 21.7%
Total Balance (points) 1536.85

That looks like a good trade off. In practice its probably about 3 weeks longer to hit milestones in terms of balance and stake sizing but that drawdown reduction is tempting. Just got to figure out how the hell i am going to implement it in fairbot.

Adam

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

It is a massive day for backing favourites. One thing I’ve always noticed with Betfair outages is all my losing trades get settled but any winning ones get cancelled. I’ve never had one go the other way in 8 years when this has happened.

If that ever happens and it looks suspect, make sure to report it to them with as much evidence as you can. I got them to repay an £1800 loss on one race because their system crapped out once. Can't remember the circumstances now, I don't think it was an outage but I was able to prove that something had gone wrong their end.

John Folan

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@stephen-beale Think if anything, saturdays could maybe be a backing favourites kind of day? Yeah I know that some folk carry on trading even after an outage is repaired but personally I just down tools for the day to be on the safe side.

It is a massive day for backing favourites. One thing I’ve always noticed with Betfair outages is all my losing trades get settled but any winning ones get cancelled. I’ve never had one go the other way in 8 years when this has happened.

Angus Macleod

@stephen-beale Think if anything, saturdays could maybe be a backing favourites kind of day? Yeah I know that some folk carry on trading even after an outage is repaired but personally I just down tools for the day to be on the safe side.

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@angus-macleod As if by magic, 2 of today's lay selections (Galahad Threepwood in the 16.25 Donc, & Bollingerandkrug in the 16.45 Kelso) have both won. Really glad the website was down now lol

Angus Macleod

@stephen-beale I think it was mentioned a while back regarding Lay strategies that weekends weren't great for them historically. No doubt @John-Folan could clarify/expand on this.

I personally just stay away from them out of preference but I'm not saying profit can't be made, just noticed my weekly trades seemed to be better than my weekend ones.

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@angus-macleod That's really interesting. I've been playing around with a lay strategy and I just wondered about the "Day of Week" criteria filter. Turned out, dropping Sundays bumped me up from 4% ROI to 6%

Angus Macleod

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Betfairs up the spout

Apparently saturday afternoons are bad for this. I tried trading a couple of saturdays in the past and if there wasn't some kind of outage/interruption, my trades would just be total shite. Since then I just stayed away from weekend trading

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@john-folan
Had to switch to Betdaq.

John Folan

Betfairs up the spout