The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@greg-mitchell
Its pretty insane how much you actually have to butcher some of these strategies to make them unprofitable. They seem to be pretty impervious to most tweaks or ommisions of filter criteria. Some you really wouldnt want to have real money on but they are still overall profitable. -
Ok, so if you just want to trade the races ignoring the DSLR then you need to take it out of your software filter too, otherwise they will never match. According to the software this does decrease your strike rate, profit and ROI but not significantly.
The odds criteria was not right, because it would not have placed a bet if the odds were 1.8 or 2.4 and neither would it of placed a bet if there were 4 or 15 runners, which it should be doing.
So if you change your original bot criteria as I changed it for the odds and runners, change the bet placement time and remove the DSLR from your BTC strategy, you should be pretty much a match with the software.
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@greg-mitchell Ill change the timings no problem. Yeah unfortunately there isn’t a DSLR filter in BA I guess they have one on BFBM?
I was told not to go by the selection but to go by the race, I get we have to do that because of the DSLR issue but I don’t have time every morning to put the 2 possible selections (sometimes there are 8 or 10 in the daily selections) and of course that can change throughout the day. So are you saying that the DSLR is the issue? If I take that out of the software would the results match more?The odds criteria is right, it places a lay bet between 1.8 and 2.4 which I have seen it do, its also not fired when there are less than 4 and more than 15 so that’s right?
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Brilliant Feb for John’s SOL strategy folks eh? I ended the month just over 14.25 points up laying to a one point liability, and I missed out on a few winners as well, phenomenal return indeed.
Thanks John for a cracking strategy
Thanks also to the three BTC boys for bringing it all together, what a brilliant community this has turned out to be
jesus i made 2.5 points, its incredible how different people get different results, have to say its getting a bit frustrating, always seem to be 2 steps behind
I've just checked my bot results v the software (I'm using BFBM), for February"
The Software shows 67 bets with an overall profit of 14.3 points and a strike rate of 63%
My Bot shows shows 68 bets with an overall profit of 16.5 points and a strike rate of 65%57 of the bets are on both the bot and the software.
Of the 10 bets that are on the software but not the bot, 8 of them are showing odds of 1.8 or 2.4, so very close to the threshold, probably explains why the bot didn't fire.
Of the 11 bets on the bot but not on the software, 7 of them are showing odds of 1.8 or 2.4, so very close to the threshold, probably explains why they are not on the software.I'm not sure why the 2 missing from the bot and the 5 missing from the software occurred, both variances account for 2 pts profit, but I figure as long as its profitable it doesn't really matter
Exactly what I’ve been saying. It’s the principle that’s important. As long as you are close you will be profitable. Most of my differences are due to being on the odds border at either end. Got one extra that I have no explanation for having. I looked briefly and then decided I didn’t care anymore
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0_1677759927568_johns-short-odds_V2.baf
Try this
So:
You have this set to fire between 10 secs and 9 seconds from the start time, this should be 10 seconds to 0 seconds to match the software. The software is basically saying that if the odds are between 1.8 and 2.4 anytime between 10 seconds from the Official Start Time and the Official Start Time then place the bet. You only have a 1 second window.
You have set it fire on EVERY selection, this takes the DSLR factor out, you should be using Nominated selections as given by the software
Your conditions for the odds and runners were excluding odds of 1.8 and 2.4 and 4 or 15 runners.
The attached allows up to 2 nominated selections, just takes a moment in the morning to check if its likely the software selections will meet the odds criteria before Nominating them.
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@greg-mitchell it fires 10 secs before the offical race start time so for 14:00 at kempton it will fire 13:59:50, of course races rarely start on time
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
0_1677757926966_Johns short odds.baf
I will have a look, but why have you set it to fire after the start time? The odds will be moving around like mad, the strategy is set in the software to fire 10 secs before the official start time.
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@greg-mitchell 0_1677757926966_Johns short odds.baf
thanks greg, the only thing i can thiunk off is possibily firing the bot 3 secs after start time that mught make some differences but some didnt fire on 2.3 and 2.2 selections so something is wrong
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@nick-allan If you want to send me your Bet Angel bot file, I will have a look at it for you
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@greg-mitchell i cant understand why BA is not firing, ive tried to see if there are any issues with the log but it just doesnt appear to ID anything. Its so so frustrating, if its 2 pts difference id say oh well that a small variance but 10!!!!! That you cant accept. And I cant sit there all day babysitting the bloody bot. Has anyone got any suggestions at all, ive got 5 months left of BA and I think I will go back to BFBM as there is far more support for that on this forum and of course it links with the software, but I cant justify buying a BFBM license while I have a BA one at the moment.
There has to be some BA guardian aces out there someone, please, please help
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Brilliant Feb for John’s SOL strategy folks eh? I ended the month just over 14.25 points up laying to a one point liability, and I missed out on a few winners as well, phenomenal return indeed.
Thanks John for a cracking strategy
Thanks also to the three BTC boys for bringing it all together, what a brilliant community this has turned out to be
jesus i made 2.5 points, its incredible how different people get different results, have to say its getting a bit frustrating, always seem to be 2 steps behind
I've just checked my bot results v the software (I'm using BFBM), for February"
The Software shows 67 bets with an overall profit of 14.3 points and a strike rate of 63%
My Bot shows shows 68 bets with an overall profit of 16.5 points and a strike rate of 65%57 of the bets are on both the bot and the software.
Of the 10 bets that are on the software but not the bot, 8 of them are showing odds of 1.8 or 2.4, so very close to the threshold, probably explains why the bot didn't fire.
Of the 11 bets on the bot but not on the software, 7 of them are showing odds of 1.8 or 2.4, so very close to the threshold, probably explains why they are not on the software.I'm not sure why the 2 missing from the bot and the 5 missing from the software occurred, both variances account for 2 pts profit, but I figure as long as its profitable it doesn't really matter
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@lee-colvin are you using automation? and if you are which one are you using?
Yeah mate, full automation with John’s strat and I use BFBM for it
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Is anyone using bet angel guardian automation and missing a number of trades in the short odds lays? I missed 10 entries last month and most where winners , just wondering of anyone else was having issues?
There a few that aren’t on the software results but they did fire for me, they seem to be close to the 1.8 entry and of course the bsp could have moved by the time the race starts. Sadly theses were all losing trades. -
@lee-colvin are you using automation? and if you are which one are you using?
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@lee-colvin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Brilliant Feb for John’s SOL strategy folks eh? I ended the month just over 14.25 points up laying to a one point liability, and I missed out on a few winners as well, phenomenal return indeed.
Thanks John for a cracking strategy
Thanks also to the three BTC boys for bringing it all together, what a brilliant community this has turned out to be
jesus i made 2.5 points, its incredible how different people get different results, have to say its getting a bit frustrating, always seem to be 2 steps behind
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Brilliant Feb for John’s SOL strategy folks eh? I ended the month just over 14.25 points up laying to a one point liability, and I missed out on a few winners as well, phenomenal return indeed.
Thanks John for a cracking strategy
Thanks also to the three BTC boys for bringing it all together, what a brilliant community this has turned out to be
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@nick-allan
If you remove that single selection condition the backtest software will treat it like you bet on every horse that matches the filter as it falls into the odds range in that 10 min period. You cant trade it like the backtest does with that condition because until the race has started its not known how many horses will fully meet those criteria (including the odds). My guess is other people are using all horses or the first one that meets the criteria or if more than one is a match at that exact time (so on the ten mins) then dont bet, Or tagging every horse that meets the criteria and actually placing the bet or otherwise closer to the start. There are so many possible ways you can actually try to implement that rule without actually managing to implement it like the backtest.Pick one and see how it goes or do what i did and remove the condition so i know the rules i am actually placing bets by are the exact rules the backtest is evaluating its past performance on.
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@jonathan-jones yeah if you are giving 3 selections how do you decide which horse to trade? of course if 2 are outside the odds range then thats fine but what if all 3 are in the odds range? do you place a back bet on all 3. Just trying to figure out how i set up the bot on BA Guardian
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Pretty much yep.
The rules in the preset have a condition (under the odds) that it will only trade if only one horse out of the selections matches the criteria and odds. Obviously that not something you can replicate so not sure why its there. Be ok if the time was a shorter range but not over 10 mins. The 3 fav ones is similar. 10 mins is just too long to be making that judgement.If you remove both those you will see its still very good but the performance has dropped off in recent months. From there its up to you. Removing AW from the race types helps, re working the course selection (now you have removed AW) will help more etc.
You dont 'need' to do any of this, its a profitable strategy. I was getting geared up for a portfolio experiment so for me it was important i know i can trade the same rules as a backtest (so get the same trades/results) as the backtest. You can trade it as it is but you you wont get the same results as the backtest (or probably anyone else trading it) because of these little ambiguities.
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@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@karl-pick yep up about 25% for me since the start of Feb roughly
How are you trading it david? Are you only placing a bet if the horse selection is the 1st, 2nd or 3rd fav? Or just a straight odds selection (2-7) criteria? And are you trading all selections that the daily selections indicate as long as they between the specified odds range?
