Golf Trading on Betfair
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@stuart-wallace it’s the same as laying the field for horses. You place lay bets against every player, my example was at odds of 4.0 with the same stake. Because there can only be one winner, so one losing bet, your maximum liability is at those odds is 3 points. The liability is combined, so it’s not 3 points for each player, it’s 3 points overall. This is what you would lose if only one player matched.
For each player matched, the liability is reduced by one point. Once you hit 4 matched then you break even. After that for each matched player you make 1 point profit (less commission). My trade this weekend matched 5.
If you go for odds of 2.0 then you only need 2 matches to break even, but you may struggle to get more than two players at such low odds. Odds of 3.0 might also be worth looking at.
Not sure what is the best odds to use and I’m not sure how best to paper trade, but with the bot I can trade as low as 10p, so happy to test with these micro stakes. I’m going to test at 4.0 for now to see how it goes.
Hope this makes sense.
P
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@paul-foster said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
I decided to try laying the field on the USPGA with micro stakes (10p) through BFBM at odds of 4.0 and had 5 players matched, so made 1point profit.
My plan is to leave this bot running at these really small stakes to see what the strike rate looks like for the rest of the year.
Paul, I'm putting my dim hat on again, but i dont quite understand the laying the Field in Golf, would you be so kind as to elaborate a bit so a thicko like me might be able to 'get' it.
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I decided to try laying the field on the USPGA with micro stakes (10p) through BFBM at odds of 4.0 and had 5 players matched, so made 1point profit.
My plan is to leave this bot running at these really small stakes to see what the strike rate looks like for the rest of the year.
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@Jarratt-Perkins Does he not traditionally(Rory) play his best game on day 4? I havent watch enough the past 6months to know how hes been going on day 4. I guess if the leader has a decent enough break on him he will drift no matter how good rory is playing
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@stuart-wallace not at all. If you lay £10 at odds of 3.0 then your overall liability is £20.
As with the horses laying the field, there can only be one winner. You are looking for more than 4 to match to make a profit, 3 would be break even and only 1 or 2 would be a loss.
I was playing with different odds 2 seemed too low 3 or 4 seemed right but I haven't done enough to be able to validate it and haven't looked at it since joining BTC.
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@stuart-wallace said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
@paul-foster said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
Has anyone ever tried Laying The Field on golf??
I have played with this in the past before joining BTC with small stakes and did quite well for the small number of trades I entered.
Must be huge liability.
I had the same thought
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@paul-foster said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
Has anyone ever tried Laying The Field on golf??
I have played with this in the past before joining BTC with small stakes and did quite well for the small number of trades I entered.
Must be huge liability.
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Has anyone ever tried Laying The Field on golf??
I have played with this in the past before joining BTC with small stakes and did quite well for the small number of trades I entered.
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@stuart-wallace I could see this working, the lay price should be pretty good as well so the risk would be low and there could be a lot of opportunities.
I would love to see this.
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Thanks Ryan for resurrecting this thread.
I have a strategy for this weekends US PGA that i intend to play around with.
essentially, each Golf course generally has a 3/4 hole stretch that is tough (think Masters with Amen Corner) -now, this weekend the PGA is at SOuthern Hills, Tulsa, where it seems that holes 9-12 inclusive are the toughest. Therefore, i have a thought of a strategy along the lines of Laying any golfer that birdies Hole 8 - collect the over-reaction and then Back at Hole 13.
Any thoughts?
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It’s number of years since I’ve traded golf but one strategy that always served me well was trading the tournament leader on the last day.
Anybody who plays golf knows that when standing on the tee some holes ‘suit your eye’ and others don’t. It may be a drawer of the ball on a hole that suits faders or vice versa.
I’d check which holes the tournament leader (or other close contenders) had either scored a birdie or a bogey on at least 2 of the 3 previous rounds and then back or lay (depending on whether 2 birdies or 2 bogeys previously) as they stepped on the tee and then trade out on completion of the hole.
It’s fairly low risk as if the result was a par then it wouldn’t usually move the odds much and it was unusual for somebody to birdie a hole they had bogeyed twice previously or the reverse. Plenty of scratch trades but some really big movements when I caught a birdie/bogey.
Obviously you need the tournament to be fairly competitive at the time, if somebody is 5 clear in the back 9 it’s not going to result in large odds swing.
I’ll try and post some possible trades on this thread in the future.
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Great ending for the tournament so many players could have won it. Every just had a few mistakes and Thompson hadn't made too many all week kept his nerve and made it look easier than it should have over the last few holes. Sadly I was on the red end. Very badly traded. Bit too much liability on especially when my exits wasn't getting matched. Had to stop using bet trader as it kept crashing
Will upload my trades in the morning. Onto the next event
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Tony is a good player, some say he too nice to win many.... He got the game but hasnt been able to put it all together at the right time. Im hoping with the field not being strong he can do something here. Thompson looked good but the small drop might be work a little on his price and werenski did well last 3 holes to tie the lead with these two in the final group might help as they will do well playing together if you had say finau in there might have been able to put pressure on.
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Pre tournament i had
Dustin Johnson [13.00] - WD
Jhonattan Vegas [75.00] - Miss Cut
Tommy Fleetwood [18.5] - Miss Cut
Max Homa [65.00] - after round one took my liability out on him.
Patrick Rodgers [25.00] - same as max took liability out after R1Going into third round
Matthew Wolff [10.00]
Talor Gooch [11.00]
Tony Finau [5.5]
he was 4.2 to lay end of day 1 end of day 2 10.0 to back lol
