Golf Trading on Betfair
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Rory looks a very good l2b currently at 2.4 - looking to get out at 5s
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@stephen-oleary not yet. I may set up another bot to compare different odds.
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@paul-foster have you tries this at 2s to3s? on day 4day?
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@paul-foster good work there!
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@ryan said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
@stuart-wallace I found a stat on it average in the last 20 years day 1 leader in the majors have only won 17.5% of the time!
So really rough figures... £10 stakes you make £200 over 100 trades.
Thats trading out after 1 day - which you could test waiting.
I’ve been testing (very low low low stakes) similar few a few months now in both PGA + Euro tourneys.
Slightly different. I lay the Day 1 leader in the Top 5 market (liability smaller). I trade out after Day 2. The rationale is that tough to have replicate lowest score 2 days in a row and price will drift out.
I haven’t updated figures for July yet but across May/June was a couple of points up.
I think I will have to move to “Winner” market eventually as much more liquidity.
Still looking to test through to end of season but looks promising.
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Here are the results so far for my laying the field at odds of 4.0 experiment.
Early days, but looking positive so far. I've a bot for this, so I'll leave running and see what happens.
P
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@stuart-wallace I found a stat on it average in the last 20 years day 1 leader in the majors have only won 17.5% of the time!
So really rough figures... £10 stakes you make £200 over 100 trades.
Thats trading out after 1 day - which you could test waiting.
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@stuart-wallace same! could be a corking little way to make a few ££
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@ryan said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
It makes perfect sense this having watched golf for years!
Justin Thomas effectively came out of nowhere to win that, Mito fluffed it on the final day but Rory was in with a shot day 1 and fluffed it.
This I will want to follow.
Yes, seems like there is legs on a few strategies here - well worth continuing methinks.
I will do some analysis tonight on the next big event . -
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@stuart-wallace I’m only testing it at the moment. It seems very slightly profitable so will require some more adjustments.
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@paul-foster I guess it depends on how many possible markets there are? I’m still relatively new to the concept
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@dan-mackinnon Cheers Dan. Is it proving profitable?
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@dan-mackinnon I think the main difference between the horses and golf is the odds. With the horses my understanding is odds of 2.0 or lower.
I’ve tried these odds on golf but either lost or managed to break even. That’s why I’m trying 4.0.
TBH the main reason I tried it was to play about with BFBM but I do think that the could be something worth investigating.
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@paul-foster Thanks Paul. Yes that makes sense. Something i might look at as another golf strategy.
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@stuart-wallace Lay the Field is something I’m trying to get a strategy for with the horse racing.
You basically queue every market at a set price and wait for them to get matched. The more matched the better. The reason being is there can only be one winner, but you’ve hopefully matched lots of “losers” which you’ve layed. The more losing markets = more winning trades.
The liability is quite low because for you to lose a trade you have to have matched the eventual winner. Again, there can only be 1 winner, so maximum possible losing trade is always 1.
Hopefully that makes sense?
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@stuart-wallace it’s the same as laying the field for horses. You place lay bets against every player, my example was at odds of 4.0 with the same stake. Because there can only be one winner, so one losing bet, your maximum liability is at those odds is 3 points. The liability is combined, so it’s not 3 points for each player, it’s 3 points overall. This is what you would lose if only one player matched.
For each player matched, the liability is reduced by one point. Once you hit 4 matched then you break even. After that for each matched player you make 1 point profit (less commission). My trade this weekend matched 5.
If you go for odds of 2.0 then you only need 2 matches to break even, but you may struggle to get more than two players at such low odds. Odds of 3.0 might also be worth looking at.
Not sure what is the best odds to use and I’m not sure how best to paper trade, but with the bot I can trade as low as 10p, so happy to test with these micro stakes. I’m going to test at 4.0 for now to see how it goes.
Hope this makes sense.
P
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@paul-foster said in Golf Trading on Betfair:
I decided to try laying the field on the USPGA with micro stakes (10p) through BFBM at odds of 4.0 and had 5 players matched, so made 1point profit.
My plan is to leave this bot running at these really small stakes to see what the strike rate looks like for the rest of the year.
Paul, I'm putting my dim hat on again, but i dont quite understand the laying the Field in Golf, would you be so kind as to elaborate a bit so a thicko like me might be able to 'get' it.
