Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat

[A Former User]

Todays FHG picks
Germany 3. Liga _______14/12/2019 13:00 Bayern II Kaiserslautern (doesn't appear to be going in-play @ Betfair)
Germany Bundesliga___14/12/2019 14:30 Hertha Berlin SC Freiburg
Germany Bundesliga___14/12/2019 14:30 Bayern Munich SV Werder Bremen

Todays LCS Picks
Germany 3. Liga_______14/12/2019 13:00 Viktoria Koln Uerdingen

[Ryan]

FHG Goals

Hertha Berlin v SC Frieburg
Twente v Vitesse

HT 0-0 LTD or 1-0 / 0-1 LCS

Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Perth Glory v WS Wanders
Mainz v Dortmund
Hertha B v SC Frieburg
Barnsley v QPR
Hartberg v Salzburg
Southampton v West Ham
Waregem v St. Truiden
Twente v Vitesse

[james everard]

Evening all thank god that week's over I hate my job lol, wish I could do this as a full time job maybe one day lol. Watchlist for today

BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY( back on 30mins if 0-0 min odds must be 1.6 , again on 50mins , 55mins and 65mins, if no goal by 72mins trade out a loss)
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Helmond vs GA Eagles
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Roda vs Jong Ajax
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Jong Utrecht vs Eindhoven Fc
20.00pm Italy Serie B- Chievo vs Juve Stabia

BACK OVER 2.5 GOALS SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY ( similar to above but 1st back trade on 15mins if 0-0 and again on 30mins and then on 45mins and 55mins if no goal by 60mins trade out a loss)
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Roda vs Jong Ajax

1ST HALF GOAL EXPECTED ( I was trading ltd for ht on 15mins and 30mins but may change this approach to back over 0.5 goals instead on 15mins and again on 30mins)
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Heerenveen vs Willem II
19.30pm German Bundesliga - Hoffenheim vs Fc Augsburg

LTD AT HT OR PROBABLY AROUND 60MINS MARK if 0-0 or 1-1 and no second half goal has been scored( odds have to be below 2.5 and inplay stats suggest a goal)
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Helmond vs GA Eagles

LAY THE UNDERDOG ( if they take the lead and odds must be below 2.5)
17.00pm Croatia 1hnl- Gorica vs Zapresic( lay away)
17.30pm Turkey Super League- Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor ( lay away)
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Helmond vs GA Eagles ( lay home)
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Div- Graafschap vs Telstar

[A Former User]

FHG new filter Back O0.5 or lay 0-0 on 30 mins depending on odds.

17:00 Mlada Boleslav vs Jablonec Czech 1 Liga
19:00 Volendam vs Maastricht Erste Divise
19:00 Jong PV vs Dodrecht Erste Divise
19:00 Heerenveen vs Willem II Eredevise.

Over 2.5
Grasshoppers vs Lausanne Swiss Challenge League

Under 2.5
Wisla vs Pogon Szczecin 19:30 Poland
Portimonense vs Rio Ave 20:30 Portugal

LTD from KO or 15 mins if starting odds over 4.2
This is kinda like Ryan’s betgreen and early stages so kinda just monitoring.
Aalbourg vs Nordsjaelland 18:00 Denmark
Rodez vs Caen France Ligue 2 19:00
Jong Utrecht vs Eindhoven 19:00 Erste Divisie
Lille vs Montpellier 19:45 France Ligue 1

[Richard Latimer]

For today...

On The Comeback:

FHG:

Fashionably Late 2H goal :

[A Former User]

This post is deleted!

[james everard]

Nothing on my filters for today/this evening nor off my ratings strategy . So a night off tonight polling station and gym tonight then

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing on the filters:

Looking at some 2nd half goals in the following Europa League Matches if the situation fits at HT.

D. Kyiv v Lugano
Eintracht Frankfurt v Guimaraes
Getafe v Krasnodar
PSV v Rosenborg (dead rubber but neither team has anything to lose either and can just play)
Carrier Bag v Dudelange (another dead rubber where both teams may as well just play)
AS Roma v Wolfsberger
Mgladbach v Basaksehir
Espanyol v CSKA Moscow (another dead rubber, hopefully lead to an open game)
Porto v Feyenoord
Gent v Oleksandria
Man Utd v AZ Alkmaar
Partizan v Astana (neither team anything to defend)
Wolfsburg v St Etienne
Wolves v Besiktas

[james everard]

Evening all Watchlist for tonight

LTD AT HT OR AFTER( wait for odds to be below 2.5, inplay stats suggest a goal)
22.15pm Bolivian- Blooming vs Real Potosi

LTD FOR HT ( 1st half goal expected)
19.45pm English Championship- Derby County vs Sheffield Wednesday
22.15pm Bolivian- Blooming vs Real Potosi

LTD AT HALF TIME ONLY IF 0-0( as per normal ltd criteria this is based on no 0-0 ft results)
19.45pm English Championship- Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers

BACK 1-1 HT SCORE ( this is a paper trade test for me , based on the chances of a early goal for either side)
19.45pm English Championship- Derby County vs Sheffield Wednesday

LCS/LTD ON 70MINS( this is another paper trade test, and would only trade if there had been no second half goals upto the 70mins mark and inplay stats suggest a goal)
19.45pm English Championship- Brentford vs Cardiff City

LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
17.30Pm Egypt Prem League - Wadi Degla vs Al Ahly ( lay home)
18.00pm Morocco Prem- Raja Casablanca vs Monghreb Tetouan( lay away)
19.00pm Bolivia- Destroyers vs Always Ready ( lay home)
19.45pm English Champ - Wigan vs West Brom ( lay home)
22.15pm Bolivia- Blooming vs Real Potosi ( lay away)

[Martin]

Nothing for today on the goals games

[Richard Latimer]

For today:

On The Comeback

FHG

Swansea v Blackburn (not 100% confident with this but have to track it)

Fashionably Late (2H goals)

[Martin]

4 and 5 goals respectively in yesterday's picks
Today's goal game:
Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 10/12/2019 19:45:00 Glenavon C. Rangers

[Richard Latimer]

After 2 succesful trades there's even less to speak about tomorrow on the filters:

On The Comeback - Starts Soon

FHG - Not massively keen as record in English lower leagues less than exemplary

Stoke v Luton

Fashionably Late:

Looking at Champs League I won't be able to trade specifically but may look for 2H goals if game drawing 0-0 or 1-1 HT in any of the following games:

Napoli v Genk
Salzburg v Liverpool
Chelsea v Lille
Dortmund v Slavia Prague
Inter v Barca

[A Former User]

well here are my selections for today.
Again I look for value for around 1.50 odds for a FHG or over 1.5 goals
Laying odds below 2.6
This way I don't need a massive strike rate to be in profit but the down side is that some games don't hit the odds before a goal is scored. I guess this is a way of selecting better quality trades. Also look for inplay data or how the match is to see if it indicates a goal is going to be scored.
highlighted sides are strong favs so keep an eye if they fall behind in the game
0_1575912096671_2019-12-09.png

[james everard]

Watchlist for today

BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY
18.00pm German Liga 3- Meppen vs Preussen Munster
19.00pm Netherland Eerste Division- Jong Az vs Helmond

LTD FOR HT (1ST HALF GOAL EXPECTED)
17.00pm Israel Leumit League- Ramat Hasharon vs Sakhnin
20.15pm Portugal Primera League- Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente

[A Former User]

Perugia vs Cosenza. Perugia looks a very good value to me today. I would have priced them at 1.80 today. They are going strong in Serie B and also qualified in the next round of Italian cup after winning against the serie A team Sassuolo away. They are 3rd as team value in Serie B and looking for the promotion this year. With a win today they would jump to second place from the 8th they are now. Cosenza is holding 18th place and they will be missing one of their best players Kanouté.

[Richard Latimer]

Won't get a lot of chance to do these myself as I'm working but anyway....

On the comeback:

FHG:

None

Fashionably Late (2H goal when 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT):

[Martin]

I've tracked the goal games to bookie odds using betexplorer.com I like doing this as bookie odds tend to be a bit worse than Betfair, so the theory is if you can beat the bookie odds you can beat the Betfair exchange odds. Here are the results for markets I could track, all flat £10 back stakes:

Today's Picks:
Netherlands Eerste Divisie 09/12/2019 19:00:00 Jong AZ Helmond
Germany 2. Bundesliga 09/12/2019 19:30:00 VfB Stuttgart Nurnberg

[james everard]

Potential trades for today if criteria's met.

BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY
13.00pm German Liga 3- Duisburg vs Bayern II
13.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Altach
13.30pm Turkey Super League- Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor
13.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Mattersburg vs Admira
14.00pm Italy Serie B- Pisa vs Entella
14.00pm Italy Serie A- Sassuolo vs Cagliari
14.30pm German Bundesliga- Union Berlin vs Fc Koln
15.00pm Swiss Super League- Zurich vs Servette
15.45pm Netherlands Eredivisie- Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles
16.00pm Austria Bundesliga- Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna
17.30pm Portugal Primera - Sporting vs Moreirense
20.00pm France Ligue1- Marseille vs Bordeaux

LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1
13.00pm Malta Prem- Tarxien vs Sirens
13.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Altach
14.30pm German Bundesliga- Union Berlin vs Fc Koln
17.30pm Spain Laliga- Leganes vs Celta Vigo
19.45pm Italy Serie A- Bologna vs Ac Milan

LTD FOR HT ( split stake on 15mins and 30mins, 1st half goal expected)
13.30pm Turkey Super League- Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor
13.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Mattersburg vs Admira
14.00pm Swiss Challenge League- Winterthur vs Lausanne Ouchy
14.00pm Italy Serie B- Pisa vs Entella
14.00pm Italy Serie A- Sassuolo vs Cagliari
15.00pm Swiss Super League- Zurich vs Servette
16.00pm Czech Rep1 liga- Sparta Prague vs Mlada Boleslav
17.00pm German Bundesliga- Werder Bremen vs Paderborn

Plenty of possibilities also from the ratings formula of laying the underdog if they take the lead, will post these on the football thread

[Stuart Capstick]

FHG today

Vitesse (WTAF? Missed pen, woodwork X2)
Regensburg
Aarhus
Mattersburg
Groningen
Waalwijk
Sassuolo
Zurich
Werder Bremen

Will either lay U0.5 if below 4, or lay FH draw.