Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat
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This post is deleted!
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First (novice) trade LTD Barcelona Atletico M at 3.5. 2 units trade out when goal.
Another (mega novice) trade. Lay 0-0 when/ if odds below 10. 2 units. Set & forget.
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Little bit today but not much
Down But Not Out: (lay dog if they score)
David vs Goliath: (looking for a 2h goal if away dog winning at ht or score is 0-0, 1-1.)
Fahionably Late: (same again re 2h goals - include home dog winning too as long as favourite odds on)
Scratch all of that. Can't see any of these fixtures today.
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These are the matches which at the time odd are 2.0 or under in the u 2.5 market.
Aim here is if there is a goal in 1st 20/25 mins then back the u 2.5 at the inflated price, cash out after 30 mins or end of 1st half whichever comes 1st.
This is not an exact science being doing it for a couple of days only.
BENGALURU V JAMSHEDPUR 14:00 INDIA
MC ALGER V ES SETIF 16:00
TRIKALA V LAMIA 17:30 GREECE
BARCA V ATLETICO 19:00
TORINO V GENOA 20:15Trikala v Lamia is also a nice dish from my local curry house.
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Like Martin not much at all today
Test Filter- BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS AT HT IF 0-0 ONLY
18.00pm Malta Prem League- Mosta vs GudjaBTS TO SCORE TEST FILTER ( along the lines of the over 2.5 split stake strategy back on 15mins, 30mins and 45mins , 55mins trade out a loss on 60mins if no goal)
18.00pm Malta Prem League- Mosta vs GudjaLAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
14.00pm India I League- Goa v North East Utd ( lay away) -
Much like Donald Trump all eyes turn to the middle east tomorrow.....although I'm not trying to start a war.
Al Kuwait v Al Shabab. If they are drawing 0-0, 1-1 or losing at the break I would expect another goal. No idea if this is even going to be on betfair yet. In fact according to fixtures elsewhere it may not even be on.
Also if Mosta in Malta are drawing 0-0 or 1-1 @HT, I'd expect another goal there too.
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just got back home lunch ( ps also hate my bloody job) and had a look what is a possibility to trade today
LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
15.00pm Egypt Prem League- El-Entag El-Harby v El Masry ( lay home side)
19.45pm English Conf North - Altrincham v Blyth Spartans (lay away side)
19.45pm English Conf North - Boston vs Curzon ( lay away side)
19.45pm English Conf South - Billericay vs Wealdstone( lay home side, this is not based on the ratings just knowledge of this league) -
@richard-latimer At least you can go to work you sound like you enjoy it
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Looks like Tuesday is a good day for some extreme naval gazing.........
zzzzz.......................zzzzzzzzzzzz............................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..................
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Betgreen: LTD at start green up if there is a goal before 70mins if not take the loss. 90% strike rate currently
None today
Gary's Filter: FHG 81% SHG 87% at the moment
492621 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 14:00:00 Atalanta Parma
492622 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 14:00:00 Juventus CagliariFrode's Over 2.5 filter - Back over 2.5 at 15 mins trade out at HT. 69% chace of a goal between 15-45mins. 1.80 min odds ideally.
492619 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 11:30:00 Bologna Fiorentina
492623 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 17:00:00 Lecce UdineseLCS - Late goal after 60 mins 74% of the time, 2 late goals 32% of the time - Min odds 1.5
492619 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 11:30:00 Bologna Fiorentina
492622 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 14:00:00 Juventus Cagliari
492621 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 14:00:00 Atalanta Parma
492624 Italy Serie A 06/01/2020 19:45:00 Napoli Inter -
As ever with my crappy new job trading opportunities are going to be severely hampered this week while I'm on lates. The sooner I can make some real money the better and faster I can quit this crap. Did I say I hate my job haha!?
So what have we got:
A split stake with a difference. As with the other filters I've added same type opposition and only those that fit both qualify for me. Stats are averaged out across the 2 filters. I can set this up to go using @Keith-Dow's 4 specific entry points which I like but then I'll have to let it run regardless as I'll be in work. Did I say I have to work tomorrow and hate my job??!
A first half goal in Lecce although I won't be touching this regardless. The away team is only a very slight favourite around 2.5 and typically these have not done well so far. I'll record the results and so maybe the data will correct itself in due course. For now though, I'm staying clear.
A bunch of potential inplay lays for if the favourite falls behind. Ordinarily I just delete Jamaica immediately but the liquidity is good and it's one of the only games I'll be able to look at. FFS I hate working haha!!! As well as the Jamaican game Berkane in Mor ties in with my 2nd break to a point and I'll be able to check my phone about 15 minutes before the end. If they happen to be losing I'll lay the opp. At least liability will be low I suppose!
A bunch of supposedly better teams than the opposition. Well if any of the home favourites find themselves behind at the break I would ideally go for another goal. There is only one of these that could fit as the other that fits would be a lay of the away anyway and I don't put that much liability on the one result by playing one game in two ways. If any of Mount Pleasant, Berkane or Haifa are drawing I would expect another goal. Again, due to work I can only check Mount Pleasant and will be incredibly lucky to get on the others.
Lastly more second half goals expected if odds on fave losing at half or match is stalemate at 0-0, 1-1. Bologna is before I start work. Hooray!!!
The rest are just there for tracking purposes because I'll be doing my s**t job until 10pm!! YAY!!!
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BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY
13.00pm Spain La Liga- Real Sociedad v VillarrealLAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
11.30am Italy Serie A- Brescia vs Lazio ( lay home)
12.30pm Egypt Prem- Arab Contractors v Misr Elmaqasah (lay away)
13.30pm Greece Super League - AEK Athens FC v Panetolikos ( lay away)
16.00pm Morocco Botola Pro -Wydad v Khemis Zemamra ( lay away )
17.30pm Greece Super League- Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos ( lay away)
18.15pm Israel Ligat Ha-al- Hapoel Tel Aviv v H. Beer Sheva (lay home)
19.45pm Italy Serie A- Roma vs Torino ( lay away) -
Betgreen: LTD at start green up if there is a goal before 70mins if not take the loss. 90% strike rate currently
492543 Spain Laliga 05/01/2020 13:00:00 Real Sociedad Villarreal
LCS - Late goal after 60 mins 74% of the time, 2 late goals 32% of the time - Min odds 1.5
492543 Spain Laliga 05/01/2020 13:00:00 Real Sociedad Villarreal
492499 Italy Serie A 05/01/2020 14:00:00 Spal Verona
492536 Portugal Primeira Liga 05/01/2020 17:30:00 Sporting FC Porto -
Here are my matches I am looking to trade. Depending on whats happening in the game will depend on how it trade it but here are some ideas of what I may look for.
FHGoal 11:30pm Brescia V Lazio
Over 1.5 Split Stake- Action is good and a goal likely I may go in the FHGoal market for the AEK and AS Roma matches.
1pm Real Sociedad V Villarreal
1pm AEK Athens V Panetolikos
7:45pm AS Roma V TorinoSecond Half goals. Looking for a second half goal in these matches if stats look good and the fav is not more than one goal in front.
13:00 Real Sociedad Villarreal (drawing only)
11:30 Brescia Lazio
19:45 AS Roma Torino -
Hope for a few more tomorrow but more importantly no or hardly any losers!
Early Doors - If still 0-0 I'll get on this after 24 minutes. Lay FHG U0.5
DBNO - Superior teams that should come back if they ever fall behind. Green denotes home strength and pink away. dog scores first and I lay em. Re-lay if dog gets 2nd and cash immediately stronger team gets 1 back. If away team equalise green up immediately. Else hold position waiting for a lead or 70-75 mins to green up.
If stronger team is forced to come back more than once green immediately.
All other scenarios in it til the bitter end.
DvG If dog goes in at HT winning game should open up for a 2nd half goal. I will aim to look at ave first 2H goal times for my entry point. If 0-0 or 1-1 the stronger team on paper should still aim to get that goal and hence open game up. Pay attention to offensive numbers at this point though - These are shown fourth from right.
Finally the last game doesn't have great ELO but does have great comeback numbers. I would expect another goal from someone if stronger team losing at the break.
FL - Similar to the above.
If odds on losing or game deadlocked at 0-0, 1-1 HT I would expect a goal 2H. Entry point currently half of available HT odds.
P.S. Cyprus a mistake as not on betfair
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Betgreen: LTD at start green up if there is a goal before 70mins if not take the loss. 90% strike rate currently
492604 England League One 04/01/2020 15:00:00 Sunderland Lincoln City
LCS - Late goal after 60 mins 74% of the time, 2 late goals 32% of the time - Min odds 1.5
492468 India Isl 04/01/2020 14:00:00 Mumbai City Atletico de Kolkata
492599 England National League 04/01/2020 15:00:00 Stockport Boreham Wood
492649 England League Two 04/01/2020 15:00:00 Swindon Bradford
492594 England National League 04/01/2020 15:00:00 Barrow Ebbsfleet
492532 Portugal Primeira Liga 04/01/2020 20:30:00 Guimaraes Benfica -
Saturday:
Been so little of anything decent on the trading front for a while that I'm really going to try and force myself up for the 6am game. Fingers crossed there is a point in doing so.
Early Doors (FHG)
Will lay U0.5FHG on 25 mins (5 mins before average first goal time)Down But Not Out - These are the team primed to come back if they lose the first goal and at least hopefully score the 3rd if they somehow don't get the 2nd. Lay and re-lay if necessary. Cash on a stron away team immediately and hold position on a stron home team waiting for that all important 3rd. Green up on 70-75 mins if drawing, anything else wait it out until the bitter end.
A team that has had to equalise twice after falling behind again following the equaliser, should be greened immediately it is possible.
David v Goliath:
Strong teams against weak and while the comeback numbers aren't enough for me to trust one side wholeheartedly, a lead for the underdog at HT should open the game up nicely for a 2nd half goal. Also a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
I'll be laying the next under at half available current odds (so 5 will become 3) hoping to match 60-70 mins in..
