thought id check out liquidity for the televised 100 game tonight - Trent Rockets v Southern Brave.
Currently over 10 million matched at half way point - incredible.
Yeh i was watching last night and studying the odds. Got me thinking, do we think there is value in laying both sides below 2.0 for example on these games, similar to laying the field in horse racing?
Both teams traded below 1.5 last night (I would assume that is not standard for 20/20 or 100 ball cricket) but maybe 1.75 could be? Given how quickly the market skews on a wicket or a boundary, it would just take an early wicket or couple of boundaries to match one side, then you have the whole of the game for a momentum swing to match the other?
@Gary-Calvert Hi Gary, many thanks for your post, and welcome !.
Interesting numbers, and great to see someone else attempting this.
Yes, i did wonder if this would only work with similar odds, ie both teams over 2.0.
I am currently at work, so will answer a bit more later .
One question, are you able to utilise the win probablity within your stakes? I would think there would be a algorithm within the Rule (i am using Fairbot).
What have your numbers been like running live?
Virtually no chance of the women's match going ahead at Cardiff this morning. Rain all the way. Not too much value in the Completed Match market sadly - no better than 1.13 at the moment. If you're someone who likes to 'buy' money though, it still probably represents value.
Hi Stuart and everyone on here, my first post so hopefully my maths wont let me down and I look like a fool.
I am using a bot to try an inplay cricket scalp as well so have been following your attempts with this pretoss version, see calculations below, hopefully helpfull.
If you lay both teams same stake of 1000
my calculations are
Lay Ind 1.28 back 1.33 profit 37.59
Lay WI 4.6 back 4.4 loss -45.45
so I dont think it will work on same stake on both teams unless they are very similar odds,
if you take win probability from odds
1.28 = 79% 4.6 = 21%
Lay Ind £790 @ 1.28 back 1.33 profit 29.70
Lay WI £210 @ 4.6 back 4.4 loss -9.55
I dont know whether you are trying your bot out in simulation mode or with small stakes, I use BFBM and I had the same strategy running live and in simulation mode and I realised that in simulation mode bot always assumes any bet it fires gets matched, in reality that doesnt always happen, as I found out simulation mode showed a profit, live mode unmatched bet and a loss.
ok, my PretossLay BOT 'worked' again today.
WI won Toss and went from 4.6 to 4.1
IND went from 1.28 to 1.33.
So, the Bot Stop Loss captured the WI at 4.4, (2 ticks) and let the IND drift til 1.33 (5 ticks) , so a net profit of 3 ticks.
Ok, not big profit, but if this is guaranteed for every ODI/T20/100/SA20/Big Bash/Blast/IPL game then this will be the bread and butter for me to go semi-pro , what with my regular earnings on Tests. If there was, say, a 1000 pound lay on both teams then can pretty much guarantee a 30/40 pound profit before the game has started.
It needs a lot of pfaffing around to set it up, and has taken a long time to get right, but looks really promising.
I wondered how this might work for ODI, and numbers arent as good (to be expected) as 20 over games, but there are enough 20 over games during the year for it to be doable methinks.
However, one after thought i have had...
IND went from 1.28 to 1.33 , so a net drift of 0.05
Obviously caused by the 'crossover' effect of going beyond 2.0
However, WI went from 4.6 to 4.1, so a net effect of -0.5
I always get confused over how many ticks this represents, and maybe i need both teams to be above 2.0 for this to work effectively?
ODi WI v IND.
IND currently at 1.27 before the game starts !
Beware the IND weighting, ie they could be 3 down very quickly but still be only 1.3.
I'm going to try my PreTossLay BOT on this to see what happens - expecting WI odds to shoot out should they lose the toss.
@Gavin-Rumsey good points. 2021 season was very 50/50, 28 winners 32 losers and 2 matches rained off. However what i was noticing going through was it was the same No3's getting all the runs... Nat Sciver-Brunt, Heather Knight, Sophia Dunkley etc.
So you could ignore matches where the No3 is favourite, but those are the ones you'd get better value on the openers.
I also don't like "gambling" so prefer to find systems!
FYI the Mens stats showed a 31 out of 64 strike rate for openers, presumably due to the power hitters coming in later and smashing scores...
I'm going to check the women's stats from the 2021 season to compare, but at the moment I am thinking this is a womens only strategy...
Can someone help me thrash out a strategy idea please...
I'm looking at team top runscorer during the Hundred.
In 2022 the women showed 30/48 innings where one of the 2 openers top scored.
Let's say you backed £1 on both openers, both innings, every match. £1 x 48 innings x 2 batters = £96 total outlay.
The average odds on openers ranges between 3.2 - 4.5 or so.
So if you back £1 at 3.2 that's a profit of £2.20.
£2.20 x 30 = £66 - (18 losing innings x 2 batters = £36) - £30 (the losing stake on the other opener in the winning selections) = BREAKEVEN Is that right? So provided you can get matched at odds greater than 3.2 (which most are) you'll profit long term?
My heads mush today hence asking lol. However, seems that there's a strategy there...