BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Hi Guys. 1st time posting on the forum outside of introductions. I'm in the process of rebuilding a BBL data sheet. Previously I'd only really looked at SP data, home and away just looking at trends very top level. I've got a sheet built with home and away, SP, venue, 1st inn score, 2nd inn score, winning total, bat or chase won and if they were fav to do so. I'm going to add if it was a night or day game also. In your experience is there something else I should add?
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End of the WC... Frustrating to trade given the number of one sided games, but made some good progress this tournament.
Could only trade 15 games and ended + 18 points (excluding outrights).
Most importantly, only had 3 losses and the average loss was only 0.9 points. This was where I really wanted to improve on after the IPL.
Making some slight refinements to entry points and staking
For the first time, I'm starting to see the effect of a slow and steady accumulation...Outrights were a shocker...I had England, India and West Indies dutched, and got on Pakistan after they beat India. Fortunately I traded out of Pakistan during the Aus game so didn't lose any there. Lost 6 points on this market
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles I think 11/12 chasing teams have won here in this tourney.
Indeed. They were a very backable price at around 2.2 early on in the chase, and once Warner and Marsh got going you could green up any time from the 8th over to the end, whenever you fancied!
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Australia
you little bloody beauty!!! -
And AUS smashed it, fairly easy game to trade really only regret is not adding to NZ lay when they were at 1.5
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Highest chases at Dubai, 180 by Afghanistan v UAE and 177 by Oz in this tournament against Pakistan... The market suggests Oz won't do it... what do we think?
Game on I say, think Aus can clinch it but all credit to NZ this tournament
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Highest chases at Dubai, 180 by Afghanistan v UAE and 177 by Oz in this tournament against Pakistan... The market suggests Oz won't do it... what do we think?
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Australia and NZ need to differentiate their flags a bit more!
When i was at school i used to tell myself that Australia were the big island and had the big star. Only way I could remember.
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I'm guessing the toss will be a big trading opportunity today given the huge advantage of batting second, fastest finger first! Also hoping we see more low odd lays on the bowling team during the chase.
20 tick drop roughly
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It seems there are 2 approaches in this WC: The West Indies, England and Afghanistan approach which is intent from ball one and attack through the entire innings with the aim to score >180. For some reason (was it the NZ bowlers who have conceded the least boundaries this world cup) England deviated from this in their semi-final and didn't have the bowlers (without Mills and Archer) to defend 160
The other approach seems more popular and traditional which is the SA, Aus and NZ approach which is nurdle it around, take it deep and attack heavily at the end, targeting a 160-170 score. These teams probably have a better bowling unit than batting: Their bowling unit can defend this score, and their batters can chase 160 but can't hit enough boundaries to score or chase down 180 +
India seem stuck in the middle. They probably have the batters to show more intent but didn't (at least not in their games against Pak and NZ).
I think the first approach is going to be more successful and what teams should be aiming for. But if they don't have the batters who can hit a high boundary %, then they have to revert to the 2nd approach.
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@martin @Jonathan-Busch average 1st innings totals are something I keep a very close eye on in regards to the venues but something I would love to look deeply into is the % now of teams who bat second their win %. Everyone has been talking about the win toss win match factor at this World Cup but it seems without knowing exact numbers that results are very much in the favour of chasing sides in T20 cricket around the world. Knowing how to time a chase is such an important part and I’ve noticed that sides are not as gung ho in the powerplay as they were in the past it seems more and more teams bat deep take the chase deep and target in particular overs 15,17 and 19. I would love to do a deep dive into that. Something I noticed yesterday and had backed up was the way that Stoinis and Wade went about things. Both boys are Victorian and as a by product play a lot of cricket on the MCG. Dubai is a big ground like the G is and whilst they were not finding the boundaries easily what they were doing was getting a lot of 2’s during their partnership so as a result the scoreboard was ticking over and the run rate never got to panic stations as the worst it got was just a tick over 13. Pakistan seemed to not score as many 2’s following the opening partnership.
It’s also interesting that data and analytics in cricket seems to be a relatively new thing perhaps bought on by the advent of T20 which as a format is still not quite 20 years old. Match ups are fascinating I saw yesterday that Mitch Marsh averages 12 against Leg spin and first over post powerplay Pakistan introduced Shadab who got Marsh first ball. So many different ways to look at T20 in general. -
@james-woodroffe the other thing is positional advantage regarding stats, so I love to know about chases, average scores, is it a big advantage batting second? etc
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I would also be interested to know what kind of data everyone keeps. I definitely am geeking out on my stats and track selected stats on every game to build up a database. These have been refined and improved on after each tournament as I figure out what is most relevant for trading. I didn't realise I would need to become proficient in using excel as well. I track 6 over scores, 10 over scores, 4s, 6s, boundary %, the 10 over target % is a big one. Average 1st innings score, average winning 1st innings score. These get profiled under each ground.
Also track the 2nd innings RRR from the 10 over mark and this helps me know what the characteristics of a successful (or unsuccessful) chase are.
Pretty quick to enter data during a match or at the end of the game - takes about 3-4 mins to enter the data from scratch (for a match I haven't traded).
All this data for each game automatically goes into a summary sheet for a profile for each ground
I'm currently making a sheet from last years Big Bash as I have never traded this before so I have some idea of what to expect.
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@Nathan-Bennett game on brother.
