BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Don't forget Pakistan tour Bangladesh too, starting 4am Friday morning (UK time). Weather looks perfect for the full 5 days play there too.
Draw price is large however, might need a very long opening innings! -
@richard-futter what if NZ win the toss and decide to bat?
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@andy where abouts in Oz mate?
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@dan-peacey there’s nothing wrong with greening up when you can’t guarantee what tomorrow holds weather wise. I did exactly the same. Took my profit with the Windies 6-18 not knowing if the rain could still save them.
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
India and New Zealand renew their Test rivalry at Kanpur very early tomorrow morning. I shall definitely be looking for some tasty draw laying. With five days of unbroken sunshine forecast, the chances of a stalemate look remote, especially with the home side missing four of their top-line batsmen, including skipper Virat Kohli.
The Kiwis were comfortably beaten here in 2016 and it was the mesmerising Ravi Ashwin who mopped up in the second innings. A repeat looks likely, if India bat first and put up a decent total.
If they do, I would expect the current draw price of 4.6-4.7 to decrease quite a bit. That will be the time to move in I reckon.
I'm setting the alarm. Could be plenty of opportunities to profit in this one.
The 1 advantage of living in Aus... a 3pm start here.
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@richard-futter Would you lay the draw from the start?
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I backed SL @2.06 and then layed them off for a round 20% profit. Only using small stakes. I figured that no team had chased higher than 268 on this ground and with a 150 odd 1st innings lead I also figured that with weather being iffy that they were going to go for some quick runs to force a declaration. If the weather wasnt iffy I probably would have held on for my trade now that the windies have collapsed lol
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@richard-futter looking forward to this series and yes hopefully a very profitable one.
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India and New Zealand renew their Test rivalry at Kanpur very early tomorrow morning. I shall definitely be looking for some tasty draw laying. With five days of unbroken sunshine forecast, the chances of a stalemate look remote, especially with the home side missing four of their top-line batsmen, including skipper Virat Kohli.
The Kiwis were comfortably beaten here in 2016 and it was the mesmerising Ravi Ashwin who mopped up in the second innings. A repeat looks likely, if India bat first and put up a decent total.
If they do, I would expect the current draw price of 4.6-4.7 to decrease quite a bit. That will be the time to move in I reckon.
I'm setting the alarm. Could be plenty of opportunities to profit in this one.
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@andy Great stuff. Had to go out for a while, so I missed the Windies slump - doh!
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I’m out for this test match now. Laid the draw at 2.08 this morning and out at 14.0
Super busy time now for both Red and White ball cricket. -
Gotta love a good Windies collapse. Was interesting watching the draw price steam in whilst the groundsmen took a seat on the boundary and then ballooned out to 12’s following the 4th wicket.
It came back quickly but interesting to see how the markets react when wickets tumble with rain on the horizon.
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Having said that, the weather seems to be closing in. Will see how things develop before getting involved again.
Thanks for your insight Richard. I missed the early action today but got involved again at 1.84 and out again at 2.58.
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Need to be a little wary of the Windies too. Generally their form has been poor, but they have a knack of chasing down unlikely totals.
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Having said that, the weather seems to be closing in. Will see how things develop before getting involved again.
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Great positive declaration by SL.
My thoughts entirely. Got to fancy them from here big time.
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Great positive declaration by SL.
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Things seem to have dried out in Galle, and a positive result again looks a distinct possibility. SL skipper Dimuth Karunaratne has a difficult decision though. Normally he might bat for the rest of the day, then look to bowl out the Windies tomorrow. But with rain in the offing and the ball spinning sharply, he might decide to take a gamble with an early declaration. Worth looking out for that, because if that happens the draw price, which has already drifted from 1.16 to 1.73, will rise very quickly indeed.
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@dan-peacey Hi Dan. Laying the draw is by far my most profitable strategy when it comes to Test cricket, as it is nearly always overbet at various stages during a typical match. I'm old enough to remember the Sixties, when the vast majority of matches - especially those involving England - ended in pretty dull stalemates. But nowadays - probably due to the advent of white ball cricket - they are very rare unless weather makes a major impact.
The trick is picking the right time to make the trade, and that really comes with match and market watching. I've been watching Test cricket for well over half a century and trading on the markets for the last 15 years, so am reasonably good at spotting those opportunities and, whenever possible, try to share what I'm doing on this forum.
But I never 'tell' anyone what to do. Everyone has to take responsibility for their own trades. Take advice on board, but always back your own judgment.
As for white ball cricket, there is no better sport for laying low (under 1.1) because things can change so very quickly with quick wickets or a couple of sixes. I never do that in women's matches or very one-sided men's matches though.
Hope that helps a bit.
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@DJ-Reid I have looked at the strategies on the page, but I thought that they were geared up towards t20 and ODIs.
