BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Here we go!
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Aussie price shooting out
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Looking forward to laying ENG @11's when 30/0
So could be 4 or 8 years from now
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Tough test ahead for England top order
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Happy to drip some more into the draw lay for 3.55.
can't understand those odds, bad weather expected?
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Happy to drip some more into the draw lay for 3.55.
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3.30 re layed
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Slow going this. I did think there was a chance of a declaration at tea, but looks like they'll give England an hour's batting in really difficult conditions.
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Is Labuschagne the luckiest man in cricket?
He has been lucky but you bat long enough this English side will give you an opportunity to have some luck go your way.
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What do bowlers gain by bowling that close to always being no balls in the first place
#muppets -
@nathan-bennett ditto
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@richard-futter yes and starting to irritate me ha
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Is Labuschagne the luckiest man in cricket?
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Just go home England just go home
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks Dan, and thanks Richard
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@stuart-wallace youāll find people refer to pt (points or percentage point) which relates to your bank. Often if you had say Ā£100 you would split that into 100 Ā£1 stakes. The benefit is that you have a lot more control of your bank and can adjust your staking over time. Itās also a lot easier to explain your strategy rather than talking in Ā£s which is why YouTube and social media is really misleading. The simplistic way to think about it is imagine playing in a casino and youāve exchanged your money for chips.
If we use the example of 1pt is 1% and Ā£2 minimum stakes = 1pt from a Ā£200 bank. When I said youāre laying to win 1 pt and risking 3% because the odds are 4.0. So your liability is Ā£6 and to win Ā£2.
What Richard is saying about drip laying is taking the stake (so letās say Ā£10) and splitting it and feeding it into the market in stages. So you could split it into 5x Ā£2 stakes and enter as the market goes in your direction. The benefit is that youāve never entered your full Ā£10 if things went against you. The disadvantage is that if things suddenly changed youāve missed the opportunity to get value from that Ā£10.
Hopefully that makes sense and I havenāt confused you more! To be clear, you donāt need Ā£200 bank you can apply the same principle using Ā£100, Ā£50, whatever as long as youāre consistent.
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@stuart-wallace If you feel happier waiting for the price to get much shorter, then that's what you should do. The danger is of course, that that might never happen and one misses the boat completely. It's a judgment call and I always say only trade in a way with which you are comfortable; no one should ever just blindly follow someone else.
All I would say is that expecting Australia to make 500+ is a huge assumption. They may do, of course, but scores that high are extremely rare and they had major slices of luck today - including two dropped catches - and could just as easily be bowled out for between 300 and 350.
And even when the Aussies do score big, the opposition has nearly always been bowled out cheaply in day-nighters at Adelaide.
I actually don't feel it's a particularly flat pitch; the ball has moved a fair bit for a first day and there were a host of plays and misses; the problem was that England bowled a shade too short, a mistake I would expect them to rectify tomorrow - and I'm pretty certain it's a mistake the Aussie quicks won't make.
Of course, there's a decent chance the draw price will shorten considerably, which is why slow drip laying rather than going all in, makes sense. And there's always a possibility the teams will grind out a boring draw, but that would be a major shock for me. Sadly, there are very few risk-free trades out there, it's a question of making it a calculated risk.
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks Dan, really appreciate your comment.
What is 1pt? Is that a tick?
Also, is there an active forum for The Big Bash, and also the 100 and 20 over/ODI games? I assume there must be. -
@stuart-wallace I don't trade cricket but do watch it as a fan. From a statistical perspective, if the draw odds are 4 the implied probability is 25%. If this test was repeated 100 times I doubt 25 of those would end in a draw. Maybe 5-10 of them would, which means the odds should be 10-20. Therefore, 4 would be value and you can exit before it reaches 10 (assuming 5-10% is reasonable). Also, if you were laying to win 1pt then you're only risking 3% of your bank if you let it run all the way and it does end in a draw.
That's looking at it from a possibility vs probability perspective and like I said I don't trade cricket so take that with caution and listen to the proper traders. Looking at it from an England fan perspective, I'd be surprised if we made it to Day 5!
