BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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The forecasts turned out to be very accurate for today. Looking very gloomy still in Galle, but the band has started to belt out a tune so perhaps things are looking up. Not surprising to see the draw price crash in to odds on.
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The sun is still shining in Galle and the Windies are fighting back well, so just taking a watching brief at the moment and keeping an eye on the weather. I'm watching on Bet365 btw; I keep a token amount in there as their live streaming is excellent.
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
For those interested in SL v WI test series. If you have Sky. I believe it’s on one of the international channels Hum Masala. Channel 732.
Was that information wrong? I’ve just got home and cannot see it on any program guides. Has anyone been able to watch other than on SLC YouTube channel?
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@richard-futter chapeau Mr Futter, I'll confess I haven't yet started attempting trading cricket, enough to learn on the football, but you're reading of the markets is something I've loved reading over the last few months, incredible stuff. Guru status! Thank you for the content.
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Looks like the rain will be coming a bit later than originally expected tomorrow... that's if the forecasts are right of course, as they do tend to be a bit hit and miss in this part of the world.
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Out to 6. You can always rely on the West Indies for a batting collapse these days - let's hope England don't follow suit at the Gabba!
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@richard-futter outstanding stuff!
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@martin Will green up at the end of play today, as there could be more wickets yet - but don't want to take any risks with the weather tomorrow morning. Could be some good swings tomorrow if there is rain early tomorrow, because as I've said this ground can very quickly recover from heavy downpours.
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@richard-futter what are you thoughts at the moment regarding position? have you taken any liability out?
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Draw drifting nicely after tea on day two. Will need to keep an eye on the early weather tomorrow. The price could steam in very quickly if there are thunderstorms early in the day. Normally, though, they tend to come later in the day.
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I'm loving the lay of the draw at well under 3 in the Test between Sri Lanka and the West Indies at Galle, which started this morning. The last 13 matches here have all produced a clear winner.
Thunderstorms are predicted later in the match, but the Sri Lankans are brilliant at covering the whole field in double quick time, reducing the chances of a washout considerably.
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@darri. Appreciate the in depth reply. All of that makes sense. I'll see how my data ends up and make a plan. Thanks mate
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@andy Tricky question. Its all down to individual preference, as you get to trade and even follow this thread we all see opportunities differently. In cricket this is where trading edges can come. What i do is typically measure a game situation and how many times in this situation has x team won/lost/scored x amount/been fav at innings break etc. These are all the situations ill look to enter a trade with. For me T20s move rapid so for you to time a entry and exit perfectly come very rarely. Its like timing the stock market just forget about it. Just get in on the situations you specialise in and know what a price should be. Remember prices are just % chance of event happening. If Maxwell and Stoinis are both set, need only 9 an over in the last 8 overs and the price is 2.2 then youd fancy that is massive value. So like the list of things to track we discussed these give you that understanding of what a price should be. Then a quick weigh up of the variables such as who is bowling/are the batsmen set/is this price scared of kohli (ipl pun) etc. Once you get a few games down you thinking like this the decisions happen in seconds, when you write it like this sounds like a massive slog fest to find a good entry its just about repetition.
Remember this is my approach. I typically look to find long term holds rather than short term. In terms of when to exit thats upto you, im entering to place this for a match result, end of the day thats how im measuring if a price is value, the second you exit a trade you decrease that edge. However, this is cricket and being safe in the final overs is good to just green up if it has gone well for you. Like i say personal preference and trading style is where we all find our green, i use data and past scores to find my edge and i trade based off that. Ill miss glaring opportunities sometimes and fomo could creep in, but thats trading, you gotta know your plan and your style and trust your edge.
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For those interested in SL v WI test series. If you have Sky. I believe it’s on one of the international channels Hum Masala. Channel 732.
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@darri said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@andy You could use flashscores archive
https://www.flashscore.co.uk/cricket/australia/big-bash-league-2020-2021/archive/Great find!
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@darri. Thanks for that website Darri, it's brilliant. Question for you if you don't mind. I've seen a number of people mention the 10 over mark to get involved with the exit point being the end of the innings. Let's say we're entering with a back bet. With all these other potential entry points to trade from (power play, 10 over, 15 etc) where would you look to exit? Would you look to exit all at the end of the innings but drip lays to eliminate red as you go? Don't have to answer if you don't want to. Thanks.
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@darri. Thanks heaps Darri, I'll check it out
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@andy You could use flashscores archive
https://www.flashscore.co.uk/cricket/australia/big-bash-league-2020-2021/archive/ -
@darri. Cheers Darri. Any idea where I can find these over breakdowns? Say powerplay total, 10 over, 15 over and power surge?
