BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace you’ll find people refer to pt (points or percentage point) which relates to your bank. Often if you had say £100 you would split that into 100 £1 stakes. The benefit is that you have a lot more control of your bank and can adjust your staking over time. It’s also a lot easier to explain your strategy rather than talking in £s which is why YouTube and social media is really misleading. The simplistic way to think about it is imagine playing in a casino and you’ve exchanged your money for chips.
If we use the example of 1pt is 1% and £2 minimum stakes = 1pt from a £200 bank. When I said you’re laying to win 1 pt and risking 3% because the odds are 4.0. So your liability is £6 and to win £2.
What Richard is saying about drip laying is taking the stake (so let’s say £10) and splitting it and feeding it into the market in stages. So you could split it into 5x £2 stakes and enter as the market goes in your direction. The benefit is that you’ve never entered your full £10 if things went against you. The disadvantage is that if things suddenly changed you’ve missed the opportunity to get value from that £10.
Hopefully that makes sense and I haven’t confused you more! To be clear, you don’t need £200 bank you can apply the same principle using £100, £50, whatever as long as you’re consistent.
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@stuart-wallace If you feel happier waiting for the price to get much shorter, then that's what you should do. The danger is of course, that that might never happen and one misses the boat completely. It's a judgment call and I always say only trade in a way with which you are comfortable; no one should ever just blindly follow someone else.
All I would say is that expecting Australia to make 500+ is a huge assumption. They may do, of course, but scores that high are extremely rare and they had major slices of luck today - including two dropped catches - and could just as easily be bowled out for between 300 and 350.
And even when the Aussies do score big, the opposition has nearly always been bowled out cheaply in day-nighters at Adelaide.
I actually don't feel it's a particularly flat pitch; the ball has moved a fair bit for a first day and there were a host of plays and misses; the problem was that England bowled a shade too short, a mistake I would expect them to rectify tomorrow - and I'm pretty certain it's a mistake the Aussie quicks won't make.
Of course, there's a decent chance the draw price will shorten considerably, which is why slow drip laying rather than going all in, makes sense. And there's always a possibility the teams will grind out a boring draw, but that would be a major shock for me. Sadly, there are very few risk-free trades out there, it's a question of making it a calculated risk.
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@dan-mackinnon Thanks Dan, really appreciate your comment.
What is 1pt? Is that a tick?
Also, is there an active forum for The Big Bash, and also the 100 and 20 over/ODI games? I assume there must be. -
@stuart-wallace I don't trade cricket but do watch it as a fan. From a statistical perspective, if the draw odds are 4 the implied probability is 25%. If this test was repeated 100 times I doubt 25 of those would end in a draw. Maybe 5-10 of them would, which means the odds should be 10-20. Therefore, 4 would be value and you can exit before it reaches 10 (assuming 5-10% is reasonable). Also, if you were laying to win 1pt then you're only risking 3% of your bank if you let it run all the way and it does end in a draw.
That's looking at it from a possibility vs probability perspective and like I said I don't trade cricket so take that with caution and listen to the proper traders. Looking at it from an England fan perspective, I'd be surprised if we made it to Day 5!
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Karachi will go ahead. Teams arrived 15 mins ago.
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@stuart-wallace draw lay referring to yes
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I honestly don't think there's a more incompetent management/selection team, with the players available in World cricket than England over the last 5+ years!
It's pretty much every game, not playing best keeper, never playing a spinner at the right time, bizarre bowling lineup/ balance of team selections. It's like they are trying to handicap themselves every game!
Remember this is the management that picked weaker teams against NZ and India with the sole intention of prioritising the Ashes! And even then didn't play Leach all summer to then through him in on a green wicket in Brisbane after no cricket. It's baffling!
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Drip laying 4 and under got to be the order of the day
Richard, forgive my ignorance, you mean Lay the draw ? i assume ?
Pitch looks really flat, so is it not better to see how England fare in their first innings , assuming they are chasing 500+, then getting 301+ would take a day and a bit, so likely be fourth day before Aus get to bat 2nd. Obviously if they get -299 then they are f'd. -
@richard-futter I see Foakes is in AUS with the Lions.
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Newbie here, thought i'd introduce myself. Big Cricket fan, and looking to trade all sorts of formats. Will be quite regular on this forum.
Look forward to seeing some of your comments.
Woke up this morning with Aus at 44-1, Backed at 1.57, and traded out with 2 down before the new ball at 1.46. Thought it would have been slightly shorter TBH.
Be gentle with me
Stu -
@matt-ayles he looks rattled. The England team don't look up for this so wouldn't be surprised if we see a collapse when it comes to our innings.
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Butler has to go.
How has he dropped that?!?! Wow......
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incredible
really just seems to be a bloke that doesnt give a f
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Butler has to go.
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Gees Birds eyes has had plenty luck
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Drip laying 4 and under got to be the order of the day
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Warner muppet ... upping the run rate perhaps the draw wont go that low until ENG bat and are 0/30
positions good for long run nothing wrong draw LAYS any stage from now
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
anyone thinking draw lay or back eng
things happening aka blind batters
seen enough DRAW LAY @4.5
Yeah mate I laid it @4.60 will be dripping.
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39 degrees tmr fielding bowling could be pain
Im likely to close position tonight and if much of the same happens probably wait till tea to re lay draw
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I'm in, draw layed at 4.3...Drip into this under 4 as well...
