BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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S**t, missed out ! was looking at Draw at Tea at circa 2.8 and thinking this was a goer, but had tied all my tiny bank in Liability for the footy. Now at 9's !
Was going to plough it back in once i'd got some liab back after footy ! too late. -
IPL on at s**t times for me
But
Backed CSK till close INNS and over 147.5 runs
Dot ball Dhoni scares me hahaSomething
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@luke-weston nice work, as times gone on I use run lines a lot
You can usually get very good entries on extremes, especially in T20, Punjab today was good example where they were allowing 8 runs in final 2 overs for 9&10 batters, they went on to get 20+
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I have been tinkering in the run line market in the Test. Thought it had gone too high early on and had a couple of fiddles throughout the day. Pretty happy with how it’s gone. 0 -415 +5pts, 416 to 450 +15pts, 451-482 5pts, 483+ -5pts
Feel pretty safe that they won’t get 484 now so keen to see SA all out for 417!
Anyone else use the run lines?
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@richard-futter good point !! Would prob take a 20-0 start by BANG to lower draw significantly
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Not sure exactly how low the draw price can go. I'll be surprised if it dips as low as 2.5 because punters will be factoring in a comfortable SA win with a big first innings score. But who knows? People often back the draw at much lower odds than I think are at all reasonable! For me, anything around 3 or below is huge value.
Thats why i was really surprised at end of day 3 of previous test between these two, with SA circa 100 ahead with 2 days to go the LTD price was about 2.4 ! OK, weather was around, but there was hardly any expected during playing hours.
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Not sure exactly how low the draw price can go. I'll be surprised if it dips as low as 2.5 because punters will be factoring in a comfortable SA win with a big first innings score. But who knows? People often back the draw at much lower odds than I think are at all reasonable! For me, anything around 3 or below is huge value.
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ive just entered with a small lay, with some more queued below 3
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Hard to see this SA price ballooning much even if a wicket every 30-40 runs ish on average
Draw lay forsure
I’ve also layed some now and think my biggest lay will be close change of INNS like say when SA are 7,8 down -
I notice via the graphics that Bangla started around 7's, and now running at 18's - that quite some movement on first day, which considering they are bowling is surprising.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
With SA batting first, I'm hoping for a decent amount of runs today, and very few wickets, maybe 3 tops... that should bring the draw price in. I hope... looking to lay under 2.5
yes, expecting it to come in.
Gqeberha (is the Xhosa renamed Port Elizabeth) has had only 1 draw in past 11 tests, and most of the wins have been by big margins, so expecting much of the same.
Weather wise , looks reasonable except for maybe a little on day 3, but PE is easily changeable. -
Only one draw in the last 11 Tests at Port Elizabeth (Gqeberha) and with Bangla quite capable of collapsing in double-quick fashion, drip laying the draw looks a surefire winner here.
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With SA batting first, I'm hoping for a decent amount of runs today, and very few wickets, maybe 3 tops... that should bring the draw price in. I hope... looking to lay under 2.5
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Surrey 117-1 and its raining.
LTD odds gone out to 10 - So, if you had got in this morning before play (4.7) you would have a big green.168'3 at COP.
LTD is now at 2.7.
I agree with liquidity - very little. -
There isn’t much liquidity, though. I don’t think that there is enough money in the market in the county game.
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Surrey 117-1 and its raining.
LTD odds gone out to 10 - So, if you had got in this morning before play (4.7) you would have a big green. -
@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
county cricket season starts today...one game is Leicester v Worcester.....predicted low temp today in Leicester?.....1 degree.
I notice there are markets on Betfair for these games.
In view of the fact thatthere are markets for the county champs, i had a look at the games and the associated weather.
It seems, despite the low temps that there is likely little chance of rain across the the 8 locations being played. Virtually all games have LTD prices between 5-6 , all except for Hove which has zero liquidity at the moment.
One game that i will be keeping an eye on is Warwick v Surrey, both sides should have all their England players on duty, so the likes of Burns,Woakes,Foakes,Pope,Sibley,Overton,Roy,Jordan,Topley,Curran(s) plus the likes of Amla and Roach, although not sure what formats they will all play might all feature, plus existing injuries.
Edgbaston normally gives a good wicket (cue 16 wickets in a day!), so may be a high scoring game with the potential for a draw.Been trying to snow in Leicester most of the morning. Standard start to the domestic cricket season cold and windy, no rain yet
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@stuart-wallace are these 4 day games?
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
county cricket season starts today...one game is Leicester v Worcester.....predicted low temp today in Leicester?.....1 degree.
I notice there are markets on Betfair for these games.
In view of the fact thatthere are markets for the county champs, i had a look at the games and the associated weather.
It seems, despite the low temps that there is likely little chance of rain across the the 8 locations being played. Virtually all games have LTD prices between 5-6 , all except for Hove which has zero liquidity at the moment.
One game that i will be keeping an eye on is Warwick v Surrey, both sides should have all their England players on duty, so the likes of Burns,Woakes,Foakes,Pope,Sibley,Overton,Roy,Jordan,Topley,Curran(s) plus the likes of Amla and Roach, although not sure what formats they will all play might all feature, plus existing injuries.
Edgbaston normally gives a good wicket (cue 16 wickets in a day!), so may be a high scoring game with the potential for a draw.
