BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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just entered a W.I LAY @1.23
would love 1.4's close to end INNS
could be asking a lot -
@tom-david-1 love these lay types .., fraction too soon for me but eye on the ball doing less etc etc
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5 day game, yadda yadda yadda, going to have a lay of England at 1.55 and do a rain dance
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what's happening to my world champs ha
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Its so much easier when you pick your best players
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been busy
missed rock bottom 2.4's think but 2.9 lay is good -
@dan-mackinnon 2/2
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Good start 1/1
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NZ bat, and Boult does play.
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Looks like a batting day/pitch... so if England bat first the conditions will not be any easier for our fragile top order. However looks an important toss to win as no cloud cover etc could make bowling tricky.
Middlesex have hit some good numbers here recently too so I think win the toss and bat is the way.
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@richard-futter very interesting. So it seems big scores and unpredictable weather is impacting the draw price. From your experience what would you expect it to be? Or is c.2.7 about right?
Like you say, hopefully they’ll be a few early wickets and that will push it back out
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Andrew McDonald will miss the game which was supposed to be his first since being appointed full-time head coach of the Australian cricket team.
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@dan-mackinnon very rare for a team to win the toss and bowl, unless very overcast and/or green conditions. So, will likely need NZ to win toss to get Jimmy bowling first.
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LTD price seems to have stabilised at 2.76.
Anybody here planning to do Run lines ? might be interesting to do for first 10 overs - cant see Jimmy and Broady giving many runs away tbh.
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@dan-mackinnon The weather has been pretty unpredictable in recent days, with some T20 Blast games unexpectedly abandoned after sudden downpours,, so perhaps punters feel something similar could happen at Lord's, but as you say it would be a surprise if any day's play was totally washed out.
Also, two of the last three Tests here have finished in stalemates - including last year's match-up between the same two teams. Also big scores have been the order of the day in the County Championship so far this season, so that could be a major factor too.
Countering that, both sides have big questions to answer about their batting. The retirements of Ross Taylor and BJ Watling have had a big impact on the Kiwis, while Lees, Crawley and Pope look extremely vulnerable at the top of the England order.
If there's any early movement the draw price of around 2.7 will look very silly indeed and if the weather stays fine for day one - as looks likely - I can't see it falling much below 2.5 in the opening exchanges. That may be a good price to lay, and could give a chance of getting some early green on the board.
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@stuart-wallace Met Office has changed again. There's now no rain but cloudy on Sunday, possible rain in the morning (pre-7am). Do you think it's the weather that is pushing the draw price down? Surely it would take a full day lost to rain for the likelihood of a draw to come in?
If the potential for rain isn't until Day 4 then hopefully enough action would have happened to push that draw price back out.
Although both teams have a "reduced" bowling attack there is still quality in there and I think either side could take 20 wickets. I don't reckon much of either opening batsmen or 8-11 so it'll be the 4-7 batsmen that might decide it?
On Flashscore it says "The average first innings score of the match across the last ten Lord's Tests is 271, or 312 for the four teams that won batting first". It'll be good if England win the toss, elect to bowl and Jimmy and Broad get stuck in during the first session and bowl them out Day 1 for 250. Simple really isn't it?
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@dan-mackinnon said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I see the draw price for the ENG vs NZ test is 3.0. That suggests a 33% chance of a draw, does that seem right?
I’ve looked at the Met Office and there’s only a small chance of rain on Saturday and Monday.
You would expect England will be up for it with Stokes and McCullum and possibly play quite aggressively. A lot of players for both sides are coming in from the IPL, does that have much of an impact? Would they still be in an aggressive full on mode?
Looking at both teams there seems to be a slightly weaker bowling and who knows when it comes to England batting! Hopefully Root finds his form again. Stokes seems a bit more aggressive captain than Root so hopefully he’ll push for a result regardless of what happens
Thanks Dan.
Strange how weather websites have different stories, as the one i use (as it provides wind speeds too) XC Weather has all days in St Johns Wood being clear of rain, except for Sunday which looks like being a total washout !...
A few things to point out...
- This game is being played on the exact same dates as last year v NZ, with also 1 day being a complete washout. (was a draw)
- Along with Sydney and Antigua, Lord's has one of the highest ratios for draws (4 in last 14).
- IMO, despite NZ having Williamson (still doubts over whether he has recovered fully from injury, although Simon Doull says he has) and Conway (200 in that test last year on debut), they look a bit light in the batting , with Taylor and Watling both now retired, it seems that De Grandhomme will bat at 5 and Mitchell at 6.
Also, it seems doubtful that Boult will play after having played in IPL final on SUnday and only arriving in London on Monday.
IPL fatigue may play a small part, however both teams are fairly light in terms of players who competed in IPL (Bairstow is only one i can think of for England, and NZ have Williamson,Boult and Jamieson)
LAy price is now 2.76 , and is very tempting, but it seems the market is looking at the weather and thinking the rain will have a big influence and sending the price downwards.
My view is that you might only need 4 days play to get a result - consider a situation of Jimmy and Broady opening the bowling on Thursday, with a slight green tinge, trying to prove a point, and if they get Conway and Williamson early, then game fully on for a result.
I'm gonna 1) Monitor the price 2) wait for toss. If price drops below 2.5 (as seems likely considering the current movement), then i'm in, expecting a few wickets in 1st session as Englands top order has shown to be very brittle also. If Williamson or Conway gets stuck-in then look to bail out to re-enter later.
EDIT: Have listened to Nathans comment and have jumped in at 2.76.
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Please no rain for the test !
Hopefully rock bottom odds right now
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I see the draw price for the ENG vs NZ test is 3.0. That suggests a 33% chance of a draw, does that seem right?
I’ve looked at the Met Office and there’s only a small chance of rain on Saturday and Monday.
You would expect England will be up for it with Stokes and McCullum and possibly play quite aggressively. A lot of players for both sides are coming in from the IPL, does that have much of an impact? Would they still be in an aggressive full on mode?
Looking at both teams there seems to be a slightly weaker bowling and who knows when it comes to England batting! Hopefully Root finds his form again. Stokes seems a bit more aggressive captain than Root so hopefully he’ll push for a result regardless of what happens
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@stuart-wallace quick in and out when 5th wicket taken for 14% return on stake
