BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Adam-Cubbage here's the highest ever chases, already be the 13th of all time, think it's value to lay but could lose of course like anything: http://www.howstat.com/cricket/statistics/Matches/MatchRunChasesHighest.asp
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@Matt-Ayles nice! thanks for the insight.
Just starting to have a look at trading cricket, preferably just test cricket so you will probably see a few more questions coming from my direction -
@Adam-Cubbage tremendous question.
We have seen it before where a team chasing a large total starts well and goes odds on, only to fall well short...
They're 3.7 now as i type this so shows the punters are already worried...
If you check the highest chases that @Martin shared, statistically they're unlikely to chase this total even now... not saying they cant, it's just unlikely...
So anything less than 3.0 (or even odds on) would be good value in my opinion.
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@Matt-Ayles what odds would you be looking for if England start well?
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I was just about to ask for thoughts on LTD as it was down around 5.4 but it’s now gone back to around 8.
I would imagine AUS will either be bowled out or declare before EOP. Will ENG play for the draw? Is it worth risking going 2-0 in the series
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@Matt-Ayles If they could take quick wickets England could certainly do it. Which is why I find it unbelievable they haven't taken the new ball. It's overcast and reasonably warm so you would expect some movement with a fresh pill. Almost looks like they're bowling for a draw, but I'm guessing they're banking on the Aussie batsmen running out of patience.
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@Richard-Futter so they're restricted to Head/Smith for spin options? Makes the chase a little more possible... but as we know, record chases don't happen often...
Is draw the best England can hope for?
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@Matt-Ayles Simple - no replacement allowed. Only applies in the case of concussion.
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What are the rules in regards a replacement for Lyon?
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What are the rules in regards a replacement for Lyon?
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This short ball stuff is dreadful. Umps really should do something about it. And why no new ball? Mike Brearley is in the stands. Perhaps he could come on to skipper for a couple of hours!
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Englands bowling attack just doesn't seem to be able to create chances... I've loved Jimmy his whole career but surely it's old peoples home time? Tongue has been the pick so far, so get him and Broad on.
And why not try a spinner? Give Root the ball!
Unfortunately, as entertaining as Bazball is, Australia are likely to embarrass us this series unless something changes.
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@Nathan-Bennett i totally missed the Windies match too. Such an easy lay spot but never mind. There may be a similar chance this evening with the Eng W... weathers good at Edgbaston.
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That’s my plan ish
hope ENG good start 40-60/0 stylesThen assess
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@Martin this for me may be the only remaining entry point beyond the green I've already locked in. If England start a chase of 400 or so with 60-0 they may come in to a very silly price, at which point a lay of England would be very attractive.
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Jimmy OMG
Smith OMG
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yeah, draw seems to be coming in a bit, OZ looking to be a bit more expansive.
Lead currently 260ish, so prob 300 by lunch, then 400 by tea - can see a poss declaration hour before EOP with 460/470 lead. -
ENG short ball stuff
Could be nothing more than containing runs
Sun out hardresult draw may come in
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Lets get some profits !!!
Continuing with my AUS 1.4 lay
LAY all draw green below 6 next plan ... ALL DRAW GREEN LAYED NOW 5.5
Then on the potential declaration watch and smash a back to lay ENG
