BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Okay, this is nothing to do with cricket but I do follow politics very closely and have been keeping a keen eye on the odds for Britain's next prime minister.
The field has been narrowed down to former chancellor Rishi Sunak and the foreign secretary Liz Truss, with the winner being decided over the next six weeks by the votes of around 160,000 Conservative party members.
At the moment Truss is favourite at 1.72, but she is a very poor performer as far as speeches and debates are concerned and there are going to be plenty of those during the coming weeks. I expect Sunak to close the gap significantly and - if anyone held a gun to my head - I would pick him as the winner.
It's a long term trade by my standards and I won't be investing a fortune, but I feel it's a pretty safe one.
Hi Richard. This is a very intersting one imo. I also follow politics very closely and have been this leadership race for a while. (made a decent amount following Paul Krishnamurty in backing Penny Mordaunt for next leader at 17s a few months ago and recently tradeed out at odds on), but it was one thing trying to predict how Tory MPs would vote comared to those Tory party members!
There's been plenty of polling of the membership recently and they have been decently in favour of Truss which is essentially the cause of the current odds. My own view is this would be a very different situation were these tv debates before a general election for example, however they don't have to appeal to the electorate at all right now but only to those 160k party members. I just have the feeeling that most of them have their minds made up already based on their own views/principles, and having seen the stats for the party members today (95% white, a lot 65+ etc), I have a feeling that however badly these debates go for Truss (and they will go badly for her as she is awful at this), they just aren't going to change their minds and have their hearts set on a Thatcher wannabe.
I guess as a short term trade, regular punters will watch the debates and pile onto Rishi so he probably will shorten in the short term, but it's such a nuanced market that I wouldn't really have particular confidence in it one way or the other personally.
Let's be honest, if the Party had any real inclination to put forward the candidates most likely to win at the next General Election they would have put forward Tugenhadt or Mordaunt at the very least, so you can't really trust the competence of the party these days, MPs or members alike!
I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing Sunak currently, personally I'll be keeping a close eye and looking to jump in at a later date, hopefully after a little drift at first.
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Okay, this is nothing to do with cricket but I do follow politics very closely and have been keeping a keen eye on the odds for Britain's next prime minister.
The field has been narrowed down to former chancellor Rishi Sunak and the foreign secretary Liz Truss, with the winner being decided over the next six weeks by the votes of around 160,000 Conservative party members.
At the moment Truss is favourite at 1.72, but she is a very poor performer as far as speeches and debates are concerned and there are going to be plenty of those during the coming weeks. I expect Sunak to close the gap significantly and - if anyone held a gun to my head - I would pick him as the winner.
It's a long term trade by my standards and I won't be investing a fortune, but I feel it's a pretty safe one.
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@matt-ayles Will be interesting to see if these two matches were just anomalies, or whether they mark a change of trend. Pakistan's win in Galle was the bigger surprise for me, especially after the way the Aussies completely folded there against the SL spinners recently. But it could be these results will encourage a confidence in the ability to make big fourth innings scores - maybe sensible to hold fire on these types of trades for a while, although I would say they've made really big profits in the long term for many years.
On the plus side, laying the draw at the right time continues to be a regular money-spinner.
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loss in this game,time to move on.
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Twice this month I've been done over by teams chasing big totals in tests! Not actually lost anything as had simply moved the green onto SL, but had i stuck with plan A I'd have made a few points. Typical!
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Nice 4 wicket win to Pakistan there!
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Trading never over till it’s over ha
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Covers are coming off now, loads of panic in the market there
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Draw hits 5, wow, 11 runs needed with nearly 2 full sessions to get them, back out to 26 now, wish I’d been at the computer, crazy swings
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Dripping some out forsure
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They appear to be covering the entire ground. So might be a long delay
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Geezuz
At work
How long rain last -
Wow, draw in from 1000 to 11, should be a very short shower
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rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Dropped catch there could have been the last chance for Sri Lanka
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This is going to be a hard 37 runs for Pak, didn’t sleep great with the heat so wasn’t up early enough to take advantage of the draw dip
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Rain will not be saving Sri Lanka from defeat today.
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Play is underway
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No sign of rain?
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DRaw about to be millions by looks
Wow hit 7’s amazing
