BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace might be sick this whole month too
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Sorry just to clarify...
I meant a 1.3 lay, not back.
I've learnt that lesson the hard way
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Either way, if the match just goes south and your loss is £25 you'd only need to hit between 33% - 38% strike rate to make long term profit.
Plus, as we discovered yesterday, once the first green is matched, you can re-lay at 1.1 or lower and double or treble your money etc, making that required strike rate even lower. And you never go back into red once that first green is matched.
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Just thinking out loud here and trying to work out numbers....
If you lay 500 at 1.1 , your liability would be 50
if you exit at 1.05 then your loss is 25
if you Back at 1.2 and it gets taken, then what would your approx. profit be?.Am i right with my Maffs ??!!
The other part of this to consider is whether you back at 1.2 for 500 which gives you £50 (before commission) on the current market favourite and scratches the underdog... or you back for say £460 at 1.2 which gives you £42/£40 on each side of the market. (Again, pre 2%).
Think that maths is right although I've rushed it lol.
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@matt-ayles
I must admit, i find software so much easier - i use BetAngel Trader, which is not a lot per month. -
@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles Wont be able to make Tuesday or Wednesday, coz of work, although might be able to get to 2nd innings of ENG v PAK - want to explore the 1.1 lay more.
Btw , are you getting your historic data purely from Betfair?
I know its a long way away but i am intending to take the whole of December off work, and i just noticed that, from 28th November and all December there are 8 Test matches being played ! Plus there is a plethora of BBL games on too. What fun !
What software do you use ? BetAngel?
If you mean where do i see the odds ranges and how many times it goes 1.1 - 1.2 etc then yes I get it from betfair but I have been logging in towards the end of matches to view the graphs live... i don't have access to the data once the site closes the market. Just a bit of hard graft at this stage.
I also currently do not use software... it's certainly something i want to do but until i get a decent PC setup with dual screens etc i just trade with my laptop or sometimes phone on the Betfair website.
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@brian-doe thanks Brian
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@stuart-wallace 44 quid give or take on 2% commission
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Just thinking out loud here and trying to work out numbers....
If you lay 500 at 1.1 , your liability would be 50
if you exit at 1.05 then your loss is 25
if you Back at 1.2 and it gets taken, then what would your approx. profit be?.Am i right with my Maffs ??!!
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@matt-ayles Wont be able to make Tuesday or Wednesday, coz of work, although might be able to get to 2nd innings of ENG v PAK - want to explore the 1.1 lay more.
Btw , are you getting your historic data purely from Betfair?
I know its a long way away but i am intending to take the whole of December off work, and i just noticed that, from 28th November and all December there are 8 Test matches being played ! Plus there is a plethora of BBL games on too. What fun !
What software do you use ? BetAngel?
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I think that’s the main thing I’ve taken from the last couple of days; patience. It’s always going to be tempting to lump on when a side is 60/70-0 after a power play in T20, hoping that a wicket falls and the lay drops. The 1.1 strategy appears to work extremely well and has legs, just need to keep a lid on it and be disciplined.
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@jonathan-busch agree with Nathan on this one. I much prefer to be patient and wait for the lay first as its much lower liability, and if it goes against you the losses are minimal. If you're doing the back first you either have high liability or low yield.
Classic example yesterday had you backed England needing just 9 runs off 12 balls before they lost 3 quick wickets you'd have been screwed.
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@jonathan-busch early always gets me in trouble ha. never back shorts as my first bet
hear what your saying tho about 1.3-1.15 and flipping -
I thought Guyana 1.30 was a good entry point early in the match. Are you not tempted to get in earlier ie 1.30 - 1.15 or do you resist temptation, remain disciplined and hold out for 1.1
Or do both, and if it goes sub 1.1, go big and go hard (situation/time dependent)
*I used the sub-1.1 entry to get me out of the 1.3 trade which went south
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CPL
ROYALS WARRIORS
Matched 1.07-1.15 free rollingWarriors chasing small total starting chase 1.15 if they go into 1.05 quickley i'll lay hard again
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@jonathan-busch best
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Re 1.1 trading
WI -W V NZ-W
WI touched 1.1 with still around 20 over to go and requiring 3 RPO, 7 wickets in hand: Plenty of time for a wobbleDrip layed everything under 1.1 using liability staking to drag the green down the lower the odds went
Got matched from 1.1 to 1.06 before the wobble happened (lost couple quick wickets) and got out at 1.2. Went out to 1.4 before coming back down again.
May look to use this as a staking plan for under 1.1 trading
150% ROI
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@stuart-wallace looks like there's a couple of days off now before the next instalment of T20s on Wednesday. (Unless UAE v Bangladesh calls to you).
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Thanks Matt and Nathan, really enjoyed today, was good to hear others views in a live environment.
Some things to ponder about today.
- not to trade 2 games at once unless you have the necessary equipment.
- not to gamble on trading markets you know nothing about.
- Trading 1.1 lay to 1.2 back looks very promising to me, and something i intend to carry forward to next game(s).
- some thoughts re 1.1 to 1.2 .... maybe only trade during certain overs of second innings ...maybe 12-18..... what do you think?
And as Matt says, only trade this on games between similar quality.
Good day lads...thanks,enjoyed it.
