BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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BOOM BOOM!
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Looking good now
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@Richard-Futter agree with that could take day or two for draw to move quickly north
BOOM on ya bike green
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As hoped for, Head gone. Hasn't moved the draw market much though. This is going to be a long term trade it seems.
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Odds haven't really moved overnight. The draw at 2.7 still looks very layable; Smith may look barnacle like here, but Travis Head rode his luck yesterday and could well fall early this morning. And the Aussie tail looks on the lengthy side. A small green after day one, but more wickets today please!
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@Martin According to the Test Match Special team it comes into operation 'if there is a significant loss of play due to rain'. I would think it'll be up to the match referee and umpires to make the decision on a sixth day, and I'm confident they would want to get a result if at all possible. A draw would be a highly unsatisfactory result in a world final after all!
PS. Just had a look at the rules and they say the sixth day can only be used to make up lost time. So any rain stoppages can be made up on the Monday. -
@Richard-Futter how does the extra day work, is this only if a whole day gets washed out?
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@Matt-Ayles Thought it wouldn't go very much lower today - and it hasn't really dipped any lower than around 2.7 - so a very low risk lay really. A wicket or two would have been nice, but reckon it's worth hanging on to. There is movement and the ball is still pretty new.
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@Richard-Futter how much lower could it go?!
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Can't resist it; having a lay of the draw at 2.8 - hadn't expected it to get that short on day one
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AUS over 335 runs
backed this few overs back sorry -
Sun shining and India's decision at the toss looks a mistake; expect draw price to plummet close to 4 fairly quickly if there are no more wickets before lunch.
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IND AUS
not even close to a bet but scenarios that will get eyes popping a lilBACK TO LAY DRAW
if smith labushange in early togetherLAY AUS 1.5's and repeat if lower
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Amazing how much Australia are shortening, even though they haven't scored a run yet
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Sorry, meant to say a draw looks extremely unlikely! lol
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For me the play here is to see how the early overs go. If batting looks treacherous, a small lay of the draw at 6 would be in order but if the Aussies make a good start I'll be happy to lay at prices under 4. The first three days look clear weatherwise and with six days available and no persistent rain forecast, a result looks extremely unlikely.
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India win the toss and choose to FIELD
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Don't forget if rain does intervene, a sixth day is available so a draw seems very unlikely. Rather surprised that India have elected to field. The Oval is usually a good track to bat on and it normally favours the Aussies. Hazelwood will be a big miss for them.
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@Bruce-Lum laying the draw in test cricket is a tried, tested and proven strategy. Long term it definitely works, it's just a shame there's not much test cricket on the calendar throughout the year.
The first 3 days of the Aus Ind match are clear but there is a threat of rain in London this weekend (not a massive threat, but also not no threat!).
The Oval also throws up a historical stat of 36% draws across 105 matches (38). Recent records suggest batting first is the choice.
I am unsure what the rules are for a test final if it's a draw?
My thoughts would be that the current draw price at 6 is too high so either back to lay thinking day 1 won't provide many wickets, or wait until after day 1 and see where we are at...
However the best thing to do is ask @Richard-Futter!
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@Matt-Ayles Thank you for your efforts. Sad to hear you have not yet cracked it.
I am thinking of laying the draw in Aus v Ind test.
Any views on this?
