BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Odds haven't really moved overnight. The draw at 2.7 still looks very layable; Smith may look barnacle like here, but Travis Head rode his luck yesterday and could well fall early this morning. And the Aussie tail looks on the lengthy side. A small green after day one, but more wickets today please!
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@Martin According to the Test Match Special team it comes into operation 'if there is a significant loss of play due to rain'. I would think it'll be up to the match referee and umpires to make the decision on a sixth day, and I'm confident they would want to get a result if at all possible. A draw would be a highly unsatisfactory result in a world final after all!
PS. Just had a look at the rules and they say the sixth day can only be used to make up lost time. So any rain stoppages can be made up on the Monday. -
@Richard-Futter how does the extra day work, is this only if a whole day gets washed out?
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@Matt-Ayles Thought it wouldn't go very much lower today - and it hasn't really dipped any lower than around 2.7 - so a very low risk lay really. A wicket or two would have been nice, but reckon it's worth hanging on to. There is movement and the ball is still pretty new.
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@Richard-Futter how much lower could it go?!
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Can't resist it; having a lay of the draw at 2.8 - hadn't expected it to get that short on day one
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AUS over 335 runs
backed this few overs back sorry -
Sun shining and India's decision at the toss looks a mistake; expect draw price to plummet close to 4 fairly quickly if there are no more wickets before lunch.
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IND AUS
not even close to a bet but scenarios that will get eyes popping a lilBACK TO LAY DRAW
if smith labushange in early togetherLAY AUS 1.5's and repeat if lower
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Amazing how much Australia are shortening, even though they haven't scored a run yet
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Sorry, meant to say a draw looks extremely unlikely! lol
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For me the play here is to see how the early overs go. If batting looks treacherous, a small lay of the draw at 6 would be in order but if the Aussies make a good start I'll be happy to lay at prices under 4. The first three days look clear weatherwise and with six days available and no persistent rain forecast, a result looks extremely unlikely.
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India win the toss and choose to FIELD
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Don't forget if rain does intervene, a sixth day is available so a draw seems very unlikely. Rather surprised that India have elected to field. The Oval is usually a good track to bat on and it normally favours the Aussies. Hazelwood will be a big miss for them.
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@Bruce-Lum laying the draw in test cricket is a tried, tested and proven strategy. Long term it definitely works, it's just a shame there's not much test cricket on the calendar throughout the year.
The first 3 days of the Aus Ind match are clear but there is a threat of rain in London this weekend (not a massive threat, but also not no threat!).
The Oval also throws up a historical stat of 36% draws across 105 matches (38). Recent records suggest batting first is the choice.
I am unsure what the rules are for a test final if it's a draw?
My thoughts would be that the current draw price at 6 is too high so either back to lay thinking day 1 won't provide many wickets, or wait until after day 1 and see where we are at...
However the best thing to do is ask @Richard-Futter!
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@Matt-Ayles Thank you for your efforts. Sad to hear you have not yet cracked it.
I am thinking of laying the draw in Aus v Ind test.
Any views on this? -
So somewhat disappointingly I have been unable to find any working strategy for franchise cricket.
During the IPL i tested all these ideas:
Lay both sides at 1.1
Lay both sides at 1.2These were profitable if one side achieved the odds point in the first innings but most of the time they didn't get touched until late in the second.
Lay both sides at 1.4
This was stronger but didn't happen with enough frequency (early) to show real worth long term.
Lay the favourite pre match
Again wasn't terrible but most of these sides are so evenly matched that your opening position averaged around 1.90
Lay both sides at pre match favourite odds
For example if the favourite was 1.90 you'd lay both at 1.90 for small profit. This had a high strike rate but you were winning so little that when there was a blowout you'd lose all profits.
Lay the favourite after first innings
This was a car crash! There was a really strong trend of teams who were favourites after the first innings going on to win. I tried flipping it to a back the favourite after innings 1 but the odds proved so low that on those occasions where the favourite did lose you'd lose all your profits.
Back first innings runs
This was a really good idea that didn't work in reality. The idea was, calculate the average first innings runs at a particular ground in the IPL, then take a percentage either side (i tested 10% and 20% above or below). For example the average is 150 runs, at 10% thats a low point of 135 and a high point of 165. So you'd back over 134.5 and under 165.5 to create a 10% window.
The theory was if they both matched you would guarantee at least your money back, or double your money if it was inside the window...
However not once did i get both sides matched which basically made it a bet on either over or under depending on which one matched, and often that went on to lose. Very frustrating as i really liked that concept.
So after 2 months of testing, unfortunately i am no closer to discovering a winning formula for franchise cricket which is very disappointing.
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Is this Final only 5 days this year ?
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No Leach for the Ashes unfortunately...
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Not much doing on the England-Ireland Test at Lord's. Never thought there would be to be honest. Sadly, Ireland cannot be competitive at this level until they have many more Test matches under their belts, and that's not going to happen any time soon, if ever.
This week's world Test final between India and Australia at The Oval will be a completely different affair and I'm expecting plenty of trading opportunities which I will do my very best to flag up.
