BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
WI SA
T20
Laying 1.18 WI
See what SA do first 4-6 overs in chase assess25% stake back 1.32
Perfect this
I'm now backing Windies, as (statistically) they aren't going to chase this down. Hopefully a big green incoming.
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WI SA
T20
Laying 1.18 WI
See what SA do first 4-6 overs in chase assess25% stake back 1.32
All red out 1.7 WI
If SA get to 1.4 ish favs prob green up
What a fill up this is only 3 overs into chase
All green now and peanut on the tie
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This Charles innings is seriously impressive.
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@joseph-henderson the way I've been treating international cricket is assessing the likelihood that the team batting first hit lots of runs (based on ground averages etc).
Then, like the T20 going on right now, see if the team who are favourites are bowling first, against a team quite capable of finding boundaries.
Today, SA were favourites, yet the Windies chased 131 in just 11 overs yesterday, and are known for their hitting. Statistically it was more likely that the Windies hit runs than SA bowl them out cheaply in this format. Therefore a lay of SA was absolutely the right call.
It's not perfect, it doesn't work every time, but i follow statistics... what's more likely? Then if it goes wrong, just exit and move on.
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I have been trying the lay both teams at 1.40 on some T20 matches and having some good success. Does anyone have any guidance/tips on match selection rather than just selecting all/any T20 matches? Cheers
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Wasn’t able to post
But again shorter formats
The old angle spin to win
IND chasing got very low before spin came on
#happensalot -
ZIM NED
LAYING ZIM 1.09
Want 1.3’sFail
Woweeeeeee
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@jonathan-west I think so. If it was me I would set them both to 1, and test it. Then set it to 2 and test it. Shouldn't take long for you to see what is happening and why.
Good luck with it.
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@eero-tarik Hi and thanks for the info. I downloaded the Cricket - 1.1 lay to back strategy and simply assigned it to the matches. I've just assigned it to the zimbabwe netherlands match and within a minute, 20 lay bets are trying to be matched and 40 back bets:
I've noticed the execution count is set to 100. might this be the reason? the repeat on success is also enabled and set to 100.
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@jonathan-west I am not sure what bot you are using but there is usually a setting in these things that allows you to place one bet and then not place the next bet until the 1st has been matched.
You can usually limit the number of bets or amount of total exposure as well.
Not sure if that helps, but...
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@stuart-wallace-0 Hi Stuart. I implemented the 1.1 bot this weekend and today. It's been an interesting experiment!. three games traded and three greened up profitable results (all in simulation mode). The strange thing about it though is that it seems to be firing in multiple bets simultaneously and I can't figure out why. This would obviously get rid of my bank very quickly and I'm sure it's an easy tweak. Have a look at the image which shows 56 and 28 bets waiting to be matched. Any ideas on what's going on and how to remedy?
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BANG IRE
BANG 1.05 MASSIVE LAY
see if can double it even 1.15 be huge25% stake back 1.10
all red out at 1.10 holding on for 1.2's
No profits to speak of
No loss either -
@stuart-wallace-0 Hi am ver6much interested in your bot 1.1 strategy please can I have the bot you used for this and how to set it up. Can you use on all cricket games or is there a criteria
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1.1 layers filling
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AUS IND
LAYING IND 1.52
what a batting line up
assess at evens if happens this INNS25% stake back @2 IND
no words
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@stuart-wallace-0 great bit! I will have a go with it this weekend. Do you use it on all cricket formats or just the shorter versions?
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No lights at the Basin pretty sure could be a factor towards th end of the test
Gees despite rain windy as bowling maybe tricky -
Lots of rain in NZ first day by the looks... draw price already low.
Roughly a third of tests at Wellington end in a draw too according to cricbuzz.
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Morning folks, I'd like to have a discussion with you all and try to see what ideas a group of cricket loving traders can come up with...
Personally my cricket trading has been good for a while now, but there is one genre that, according to my spreadsheets, continues to lose me money.
Franchise cricket!
Franchise cricket is very exciting, and i love watching it, however the strategies that work for me on international cricket (no matter the format) do not work in franchises... and with so much of it available it seems like such a waste not to use it. Strangely the SA20 was ok (not amazing), but the BBL, PSL and WPL have been very poor.
The IPL starts on 31st March and what I'm looking to do is test a whole host of potential strategies, including one on runs in the first innings which may be possible depending on how betfair works.
For me, even the 1.1 lay strategies haven't been working in franchises, as by the time it gets that low it's too late and more often drops than bounces.
Does anyone have any ideas they would like me to test?
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@stuart-wallace-0 I have set a 'Repeat on Success' 5 times on the strategy, thoughts being that there could be several 1.1 scenarios during a match, but you are alwaws potentially have the situation (as proved in this test) of the odds going from 1.1 to 1.2. then 1.3 then back down again to 1.1 where it invokes the Stop Loss, therefore i am thinking of simply reducing that to 1 , and just taking any profit from 1 trade without the possible reducing of profit by the stop loss being invoked several times.
Anybody any thoughts on this?EDIT : Have amended it to not Repeat on Success, and set the SL to be a Trailing SL. That way, in this example trade, the price went from 1.1 to 1.3 - therefore the TSL will change to be triggered at 1.27 and placed at 1.24 instead of 1.07 and 1.04 respectively.
All of this done in SIM mode of course.
