BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Bruce-Lum laying the draw in test cricket is a tried, tested and proven strategy. Long term it definitely works, it's just a shame there's not much test cricket on the calendar throughout the year.
The first 3 days of the Aus Ind match are clear but there is a threat of rain in London this weekend (not a massive threat, but also not no threat!).
The Oval also throws up a historical stat of 36% draws across 105 matches (38). Recent records suggest batting first is the choice.
I am unsure what the rules are for a test final if it's a draw?
My thoughts would be that the current draw price at 6 is too high so either back to lay thinking day 1 won't provide many wickets, or wait until after day 1 and see where we are at...
However the best thing to do is ask @Richard-Futter!
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@Matt-Ayles Thank you for your efforts. Sad to hear you have not yet cracked it.
I am thinking of laying the draw in Aus v Ind test.
Any views on this? -
So somewhat disappointingly I have been unable to find any working strategy for franchise cricket.
During the IPL i tested all these ideas:
Lay both sides at 1.1
Lay both sides at 1.2These were profitable if one side achieved the odds point in the first innings but most of the time they didn't get touched until late in the second.
Lay both sides at 1.4
This was stronger but didn't happen with enough frequency (early) to show real worth long term.
Lay the favourite pre match
Again wasn't terrible but most of these sides are so evenly matched that your opening position averaged around 1.90
Lay both sides at pre match favourite odds
For example if the favourite was 1.90 you'd lay both at 1.90 for small profit. This had a high strike rate but you were winning so little that when there was a blowout you'd lose all profits.
Lay the favourite after first innings
This was a car crash! There was a really strong trend of teams who were favourites after the first innings going on to win. I tried flipping it to a back the favourite after innings 1 but the odds proved so low that on those occasions where the favourite did lose you'd lose all your profits.
Back first innings runs
This was a really good idea that didn't work in reality. The idea was, calculate the average first innings runs at a particular ground in the IPL, then take a percentage either side (i tested 10% and 20% above or below). For example the average is 150 runs, at 10% thats a low point of 135 and a high point of 165. So you'd back over 134.5 and under 165.5 to create a 10% window.
The theory was if they both matched you would guarantee at least your money back, or double your money if it was inside the window...
However not once did i get both sides matched which basically made it a bet on either over or under depending on which one matched, and often that went on to lose. Very frustrating as i really liked that concept.
So after 2 months of testing, unfortunately i am no closer to discovering a winning formula for franchise cricket which is very disappointing.
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Is this Final only 5 days this year ?
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No Leach for the Ashes unfortunately...
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Not much doing on the England-Ireland Test at Lord's. Never thought there would be to be honest. Sadly, Ireland cannot be competitive at this level until they have many more Test matches under their belts, and that's not going to happen any time soon, if ever.
This week's world Test final between India and Australia at The Oval will be a completely different affair and I'm expecting plenty of trading opportunities which I will do my very best to flag up.
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@Matt-Ayles am now WTF
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ENG IRE
Here we goGees ENG look excited haha tempting lay now just on body language . holding a few overs
ENG 1.09 LAY IS ON !!!
goals to double my money and if for some reason draw heads into 7-6's just a auto flip and lay that -
Are folks aware that England v Ireland is a FOUR day match?
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Weather now looks set fair for all 5 days... draw is already at 11.5 to lay. England make an attractive lay, but surely you'd want Ireland batting first to make the most of that?
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Didn’t watch final
Anyone make millions laying low odds lastnight
Sheesh -
@stuart-wallace-0 interesting . first test in some time will be proceeding with caution until see green light and load up . do like a early back to lay draw gamble . still best to wait for toss perhaps
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@Nathan-Bennett LTD currently at 8.4 ENG at 1.17.
Weather forecast i looked at has dodgy weather for all 5 days, including thunder - ok, can quickly change.
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@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 yeah that is frustrating I bet
I have a bf account I set up for my wife a while back. Gubbed of sportsbook but good for exchange.
If I can help by trying things out on 2 accounts let me know mate
Cheers Gavin.
As in trying to back up my strategy, i tried it manually on the GT v CSK game today, and tracked the results....
At 1 min BEFORE toss, GT were 2.04 and CSK were 1.97.
At 1 min AFTER toss (which GT won) GT were 1.97 and CSK 2.04.Now, this is a regular occurrence (especially when the side winning the toss decides to bowl).
With my strategy of a LAY of both teams 1 min before Toss, with a Stop/Loss of 3 ticks on both sides, resulted in a profit of 4 ticks.
So, for my huge 2 pound Lay, i won 9 pence. Small acorns as they say, but if you think about the percentages, if this had been a
1k lay on both sides, then the net profit would have been something like 40 pounds, all long before a ball has been bowled- and with very little risk.As i said earlier, this is a regular occurrence on the 20 over games (not so much on the others), and typically the worst that can happen is a scratch trade.
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june 1 ENG IRE
TESTS BEST
this will be a massive ENG LAY some point to double money -
Jofra Archer ruled out of Ashes.
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@stuart-wallace-0 yeah that is frustrating I bet
I have a bf account I set up for my wife a while back. Gubbed of sportsbook but good for exchange.
If I can help by trying things out on 2 accounts let me know mate
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 loving the determination
What's the need for 2 accounts??
Hi Gavin,
The problem i seem to have is that i cant place 2 lays on a 2 team market - what happens is that (looking at a ladder) Green goes north for first Lay, but, bizarrely goes South for the next - almost like its a Back bet. Nobody seems to be able to tell me why, except Alistair Hamilton suggested this was normal. It works 'correctly' if i use the Match with Tie market (coz there are 3 possibles) but there is little liquidity.So, the only way i can think to do this is to have 2 accounts on Betfair, and 2 Fairbot accounts, and lay 1 on each account.
Its driving me crazy, especially as i now know (based on the number of games i have watched) there is a Scalp of at least 6 ticks available on every white ball game on the planet - all before a ball is bowled. So, you could have a Bank of 2k, and lay 1k on each team, and know that you will be guaranteed a 6 tick profit on every white ball game . Sounds good dunnit !?
Thats probably why i'm not giving up on this.!This is an example from todays IPL of what happens, first lay goes green north but 2nd goes green south !! totally bizarre - i wish someone could tell me why.
Proved by todays IPL game. I placed a manual Lay on MI and got normal results, then placed a LAY on RCB and saw Green go South and not normal North - so its clear you cant place 2 lays in a 2 'horse race' - however, i went back to the Match Odds including Tie market and managed to get both teams Layed and ladder behaved 'correctly' - however, liquidity is pants (30k against 3.6 million !). I also checked my Smarkets account, but , also, Liquidity is pants in comparison to Betfair.
So, looks like i am going to have to set up 2 Betfair accounts with my son being the other in order to be able to do what i want to do. (dont want to potentially have my Betfair account gubbed by having 2 accounts on same IP address etc.) -
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 loving the determination
What's the need for 2 accounts??
Hi Gavin,
The problem i seem to have is that i cant place 2 lays on a 2 team market - what happens is that (looking at a ladder) Green goes north for first Lay, but, bizarrely goes South for the next - almost like its a Back bet. Nobody seems to be able to tell me why, except Alistair Hamilton suggested this was normal. It works 'correctly' if i use the Match with Tie market (coz there are 3 possibles) but there is little liquidity.So, the only way i can think to do this is to have 2 accounts on Betfair, and 2 Fairbot accounts, and lay 1 on each account.
Its driving me crazy, especially as i now know (based on the number of games i have watched) there is a Scalp of at least 6 ticks available on every white ball game on the planet - all before a ball is bowled. So, you could have a Bank of 2k, and lay 1k on each team, and know that you will be guaranteed a 6 tick profit on every white ball game . Sounds good dunnit !?
Thats probably why i'm not giving up on this.!This is an example from todays IPL of what happens, first lay goes green north but 2nd goes green south !! totally bizarre - i wish someone could tell me why.
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My site was down for here
Managed dead rubber pat back NZ winning G5
Something
Theory’s
