BTC Cricket Trading Thread

Nathan Bennett

IND AUS
not even close to a bet but scenarios that will get eyes popping a lil

BACK TO LAY DRAW
if smith labushange in early together

LAY AUS 1.5's and repeat if lower

Richard Futter

Amazing how much Australia are shortening, even though they haven't scored a run yet

Richard Futter

Sorry, meant to say a draw looks extremely unlikely! lol

Richard Futter

For me the play here is to see how the early overs go. If batting looks treacherous, a small lay of the draw at 6 would be in order but if the Aussies make a good start I'll be happy to lay at prices under 4. The first three days look clear weatherwise and with six days available and no persistent rain forecast, a result looks extremely unlikely.

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India win the toss and choose to FIELD

Richard Futter

Don't forget if rain does intervene, a sixth day is available so a draw seems very unlikely. Rather surprised that India have elected to field. The Oval is usually a good track to bat on and it normally favours the Aussies. Hazelwood will be a big miss for them.

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@Bruce-Lum laying the draw in test cricket is a tried, tested and proven strategy. Long term it definitely works, it's just a shame there's not much test cricket on the calendar throughout the year.

The first 3 days of the Aus Ind match are clear but there is a threat of rain in London this weekend (not a massive threat, but also not no threat!).

The Oval also throws up a historical stat of 36% draws across 105 matches (38). Recent records suggest batting first is the choice.

I am unsure what the rules are for a test final if it's a draw?

My thoughts would be that the current draw price at 6 is too high so either back to lay thinking day 1 won't provide many wickets, or wait until after day 1 and see where we are at...

However the best thing to do is ask @Richard-Futter!

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@Matt-Ayles Thank you for your efforts. Sad to hear you have not yet cracked it.
I am thinking of laying the draw in Aus v Ind test.
Any views on this?

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So somewhat disappointingly I have been unable to find any working strategy for franchise cricket.

During the IPL i tested all these ideas:

Lay both sides at 1.1
Lay both sides at 1.2

These were profitable if one side achieved the odds point in the first innings but most of the time they didn't get touched until late in the second.

Lay both sides at 1.4

This was stronger but didn't happen with enough frequency (early) to show real worth long term.

Lay the favourite pre match

Again wasn't terrible but most of these sides are so evenly matched that your opening position averaged around 1.90

Lay both sides at pre match favourite odds

For example if the favourite was 1.90 you'd lay both at 1.90 for small profit. This had a high strike rate but you were winning so little that when there was a blowout you'd lose all profits.

Lay the favourite after first innings

This was a car crash! There was a really strong trend of teams who were favourites after the first innings going on to win. I tried flipping it to a back the favourite after innings 1 but the odds proved so low that on those occasions where the favourite did lose you'd lose all your profits.

Back first innings runs

This was a really good idea that didn't work in reality. The idea was, calculate the average first innings runs at a particular ground in the IPL, then take a percentage either side (i tested 10% and 20% above or below). For example the average is 150 runs, at 10% thats a low point of 135 and a high point of 165. So you'd back over 134.5 and under 165.5 to create a 10% window.

The theory was if they both matched you would guarantee at least your money back, or double your money if it was inside the window...

However not once did i get both sides matched which basically made it a bet on either over or under depending on which one matched, and often that went on to lose. Very frustrating as i really liked that concept.

So after 2 months of testing, unfortunately i am no closer to discovering a winning formula for franchise cricket which is very disappointing.

Nathan Bennett

Is this Final only 5 days this year ?

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No Leach for the Ashes unfortunately...

Richard Futter

Not much doing on the England-Ireland Test at Lord's. Never thought there would be to be honest. Sadly, Ireland cannot be competitive at this level until they have many more Test matches under their belts, and that's not going to happen any time soon, if ever.

This week's world Test final between India and Australia at The Oval will be a completely different affair and I'm expecting plenty of trading opportunities which I will do my very best to flag up.

Nathan Bennett

@Matt-Ayles am now WTF

Nathan Bennett

ENG IRE
Here we go

Gees ENG look excited haha tempting lay now just on body language . holding a few overs

ENG 1.09 LAY IS ON !!!
goals to double my money and if for some reason draw heads into 7-6's just a auto flip and lay that

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Are folks aware that England v Ireland is a FOUR day match?

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Weather now looks set fair for all 5 days... draw is already at 11.5 to lay. England make an attractive lay, but surely you'd want Ireland batting first to make the most of that?

Nathan Bennett

Didn’t watch final
Anyone make millions laying low odds lastnight
Sheesh

Nathan Bennett

@stuart-wallace-0 interesting . first test in some time will be proceeding with caution until see green light and load up . do like a early back to lay draw gamble . still best to wait for toss perhaps

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@Nathan-Bennett LTD currently at 8.4 ENG at 1.17.

Weather forecast i looked at has dodgy weather for all 5 days, including thunder - ok, can quickly change.

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@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@stuart-wallace-0 yeah that is frustrating I bet

I have a bf account I set up for my wife a while back. Gubbed of sportsbook but good for exchange.

If I can help by trying things out on 2 accounts let me know mate

Cheers Gavin.

As in trying to back up my strategy, i tried it manually on the GT v CSK game today, and tracked the results....

At 1 min BEFORE toss, GT were 2.04 and CSK were 1.97.
At 1 min AFTER toss (which GT won) GT were 1.97 and CSK 2.04.

Now, this is a regular occurrence (especially when the side winning the toss decides to bowl).
With my strategy of a LAY of both teams 1 min before Toss, with a Stop/Loss of 3 ticks on both sides, resulted in a profit of 4 ticks.
So, for my huge 2 pound Lay, i won 9 pence. Small acorns as they say, but if you think about the percentages, if this had been a
1k lay on both sides, then the net profit would have been something like 40 pounds, all long before a ball has been bowled- and with very little risk.

As i said earlier, this is a regular occurrence on the 20 over games (not so much on the others), and typically the worst that can happen is a scratch trade.