BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Going away for a few days now.
Any chance someone can make a note of the pre match, post toss odds and the odds at the half way point for both teams in the IPL matches for me please?
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@matt-ayles Cheers Matt,
Maybe i'm not explaining myself very well...
essentially i am trying to lay both side at 1 min before toss, with expectation of 1 side to drift and 1 side to shorten.
By laying both sides (lets say they are both 2.0), then 1 may drift to 2.10, and the other may shorten to 1.9.
Now, by laying both sides at 31 mins B4 toss then i am hoping to capture the side that shortens with a stop loss at 1.97, and then have an offset bet on other team to try to capture 10 ticks profit - thus 10 - 3 should equal a 7 tick profit.
However, what happens is that at 31 mins, one side shows green going north (what i would expect) , but the other team shows red going north (all before the Toss btw).
Now, this may be a usual betting 'rule' that i'm not quite understanding, but it is driving me insane.Normally, if you Lay one team, then the Green element is going North - however, i get 1 going green going north and 1 team going red going north !
Its driving me crazy.
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@matt-ayles yeah not quite dead rubber ha I got that wrong thought only 3 game series
Uppercut to self -
@stuart-wallace-0 I've been trying to wrap my head round your query.
From what i can see you're laying both sides at their opening marks (pre toss) and expecting both to drift? Or you're hoping to use a stop loss to prevent one going too far south whilst the other goes north.
The issue is you're laying one at odds against (i.e. over 2.0). In any 2 way market you can't lay both sides at the same point in time as one side will always be odds against which causes disparity between your potential returns... therefore the side showing green needs to move further than the side showing red in order to breakeven.
If you imagine, laying both sides at 2.0 causes a breakeven, both sides at 2.02 would result in a loss, and both sides at 1.99 would result in a profit. However at any given point in time the market does not show the same odds on both sides. Even in that graph you added in an earlier post they were both bouncing around the 2.0 mark but flip-flopped between 2.02 and 1.99 or so. Even the "to win the toss" market which is quite literally a coin flip, usually offers the chance to back either side at 1.99 so the bettor cannot back both sides and win...
Have you tried testing half the amount of ticks required on the odds against side? If your opening lay is 2.18 then you'd only need to get to 2.28 (not 2.38) to achieve the same green as the 1.85 to 1.95 on both sides of the market? At £2 if the both match you'd get 20p either side?
Ideally you'd need to lay (or back) both sides at the same number, then you wouldn't need the opposing bets but that won't happen pre match very often unless they're both close to 2.0 pre match and the outsider wins the toss...
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Didn’t bet but PAK NZ T20 dead rubber theory kicks in again
I did, but isn't it a 5 match series? It was a must win for NZ i thought.
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Didn’t bet but PAK NZ T20 dead rubber theory kicks in again
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SRI IRE
TEST
Don't mind backing draw these odds to try double money
eg 500@17 back then 1000@9 laybacked more @20
laying draw @9.4 to take all red out
actually made this
SRI GREEN
IRE GREEN
DRAW EVENthink could be more low lay swings on wickets / partnerships IRE can show some grit
ALL GREEN now @22
could be time to hold till next INNS launch 1.01 lay
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 you have three bets matched on a two way market so you can green up either side
Thanks Martin.
I think i must be having a senior moment in this. if you look at the screenshot for todays example, there are 2 Lay bets matched. Therefore i would expect both teams to have potential green as prices go north. However, as you can see, Delhi start going into the Green when the price shortens, and Mumbai goes into Green when price lengthens, whereas i am expecting both teams to go into Green when Price lengthens (Bot concept being that upon Toss, one Team will shorten, and i can scalp a few ticks, and the other team will lengthen , which i will capture with the stop loss.) However, what i see possibly happening here, is if Mumbai win the Toss then their odds will shorten and go into the Red, and Delhi odds will lengthen and also go into Red. But, if its the other way around and Delhi win the toss then both teams will go into Green. Doesnt make sense as i have layed both sides.I get the feeling that i am missing something very fundamental here - for example, is this normal behaviour for laying both teams in a 2 horse race?
Am i missing something very obvious?
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I'm really confused ! (i know it must be a simple answer)
How can both teams , after both were layed go in different directions (ie one up into red, and the other up into green?
i know there is going to be a simple answer that my small brain cannot deal with.
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
This looks promising..45p profit on a 2 pound trade!
However, on reflection, this doesnt seem quite right.
I wasnt around to watch the game, so i just let the Bot run.if you look at the times and odds, BOTH teams have lengthened their price, and therefore we won on both sides - Hyderabad correclty after 10 ticks gain, but Lucknow also on 10 ticks (which is the tick profit set by the Bot.)
It may well be that the swing wasnt sufficient to hit the Stop Loss and therefore the price just meandered around until it hit the 10 tivks profit . I will have to check the prices.However, a big step forward i feel today, and not far off having a Bot that will give a regular pre game scalp based on the Toss.
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This looks promising..45p profit on a 2 pound trade!
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@stuart-wallace-0 nothing is embarrassing when you're learning mate.
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@stuart-wallace-0 Light bulb moment - i figured out why the Bot is firing both a back and lay at 31 mins - another embarassing moment for me !
Lets see what happens with this afternoons game. -
OK, next trade in the IPL using TossLayBot.
This screenshot is taken at roughly the same time as yesterday - ie about 15 mins after the Toss and 15 mins before play.
As you can see, RCB won the toss and decided to field. RCB went from 1.79 to 1.72 , and KKR went from 2.3 to 2.4.
So, the same movement as happened yesterday (and will likely happen every game) - but there is a however.....
The Bot wants to fire a Lay AND Back at 31 mins ...... and i dont know why !!!
Might have to ask my mate Alistair Hamilton have another look at it, and decipher it - just doesnt make sense at the moment. But anyway, can see that this will work and likely provide a 6 tick profit before the game even starts on all IPL games. Just need to get the bleedin Bot to work properly !! - will get there in the end !
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 I do think the toss scalp has legs.
What did you find wrong with the bot?
In play I make plenty of great 'calls' but dither and more often than not end up a bit scrambled in my thinking.
@gavin-rumsey i am convinced that the pre toss scalp has legs , and confident we can get a hit rate of 90% - its the control of the 10% which is the key, along with controlling the stop loss .
There will be degrees of swing, for example, if the team winning the toss fields (assumption being that they believe its a crappy wicket and better to bowl) then the swing will be bigger than if they bat.I cant tell you what the issue was yesterday with bot, as it would only embarass me
but will be doing the same today with adjustment ! and will post results on here.Can someone remind me... is 2.32 to 2.56 12 or 24 ticks ? my brain not quite up to speed this morning!
12 ticks
Love an oversight too embarrassing to post
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Found an interesting Cricket Stats website...
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@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 I do think the toss scalp has legs.
What did you find wrong with the bot?
In play I make plenty of great 'calls' but dither and more often than not end up a bit scrambled in my thinking.
@gavin-rumsey i am convinced that the pre toss scalp has legs , and confident we can get a hit rate of 90% - its the control of the 10% which is the key, along with controlling the stop loss .
There will be degrees of swing, for example, if the team winning the toss fields (assumption being that they believe its a crappy wicket and better to bowl) then the swing will be bigger than if they bat.I cant tell you what the issue was yesterday with bot, as it would only embarass me
but will be doing the same today with adjustment ! and will post results on here.Can someone remind me... is 2.32 to 2.56 12 or 24 ticks ? my brain not quite up to speed this morning!
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BANG IRE
My 1.02 lay have taken 75% of that back @1.06
now for
My 1.05 lay if hits 1.10 will take 75% of that back
(1.09 taken)bless you IRE
