BTC Cricket Trading Thread

[Nathan Bennett]

Didn’t bet but PAK NZ T20 dead rubber theory kicks in again

[Nathan Bennett]

SRI IRE
TEST
Don't mind backing draw these odds to try double money
eg 500@17 back then 1000@9 lay

backed more @20

laying draw @9.4 to take all red out
actually made this
SRI GREEN
IRE GREEN
DRAW EVEN

think could be more low lay swings on wickets / partnerships IRE can show some grit

ALL GREEN now @22

could be time to hold till next INNS launch 1.01 lay

[Martin]

@stuart-wallace-0 replied to this in the other thread you posted it on

[A Former User]

@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@stuart-wallace-0 you have three bets matched on a two way market so you can green up either side

Thanks Martin.
I think i must be having a senior moment in this. if you look at the screenshot for todays example, there are 2 Lay bets matched. Therefore i would expect both teams to have potential green as prices go north. However, as you can see, Delhi start going into the Green when the price shortens, and Mumbai goes into Green when price lengthens, whereas i am expecting both teams to go into Green when Price lengthens (Bot concept being that upon Toss, one Team will shorten, and i can scalp a few ticks, and the other team will lengthen , which i will capture with the stop loss.) However, what i see possibly happening here, is if Mumbai win the Toss then their odds will shorten and go into the Red, and Delhi odds will lengthen and also go into Red. But, if its the other way around and Delhi win the toss then both teams will go into Green. Doesnt make sense as i have layed both sides.

I get the feeling that i am missing something very fundamental here - for example, is this normal behaviour for laying both teams in a 2 horse race?

Am i missing something very obvious?

[Martin]

@stuart-wallace-0 you have three bets matched on a two way market so you can green up either side

[A Former User]

I'm really confused ! (i know it must be a simple answer)

How can both teams , after both were layed go in different directions (ie one up into red, and the other up into green?
i know there is going to be a simple answer that my small brain cannot deal with.

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

This looks promising..45p profit on a 2 pound trade!

However, on reflection, this doesnt seem quite right.
I wasnt around to watch the game, so i just let the Bot run.

if you look at the times and odds, BOTH teams have lengthened their price, and therefore we won on both sides - Hyderabad correclty after 10 ticks gain, but Lucknow also on 10 ticks (which is the tick profit set by the Bot.)
It may well be that the swing wasnt sufficient to hit the Stop Loss and therefore the price just meandered around until it hit the 10 tivks profit . I will have to check the prices.

However, a big step forward i feel today, and not far off having a Bot that will give a regular pre game scalp based on the Toss.

[A Former User]

This looks promising..45p profit on a 2 pound trade!

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0 nothing is embarrassing when you're learning mate.

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0 Light bulb moment - i figured out why the Bot is firing both a back and lay at 31 mins - another embarassing moment for me !
Lets see what happens with this afternoons game.

[A Former User]

OK, next trade in the IPL using TossLayBot.
This screenshot is taken at roughly the same time as yesterday - ie about 15 mins after the Toss and 15 mins before play.
As you can see, RCB won the toss and decided to field. RCB went from 1.79 to 1.72 , and KKR went from 2.3 to 2.4.
So, the same movement as happened yesterday (and will likely happen every game) - but there is a however.....
The Bot wants to fire a Lay AND Back at 31 mins ...... and i dont know why !!!
Might have to ask my mate Alistair Hamilton have another look at it, and decipher it - just doesnt make sense at the moment. But anyway, can see that this will work and likely provide a 6 tick profit before the game even starts on all IPL games. Just need to get the bleedin Bot to work properly !! - will get there in the end !

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@stuart-wallace-0 I do think the toss scalp has legs.

What did you find wrong with the bot?

In play I make plenty of great 'calls' but dither and more often than not end up a bit scrambled in my thinking.

@gavin-rumsey i am convinced that the pre toss scalp has legs , and confident we can get a hit rate of 90% - its the control of the 10% which is the key, along with controlling the stop loss .
There will be degrees of swing, for example, if the team winning the toss fields (assumption being that they believe its a crappy wicket and better to bowl) then the swing will be bigger than if they bat.

I cant tell you what the issue was yesterday with bot, as it would only embarass me but will be doing the same today with adjustment ! and will post results on here.

Can someone remind me... is 2.32 to 2.56 12 or 24 ticks ? my brain not quite up to speed this morning!

12 ticks

Love an oversight too embarrassing to post

[A Former User]

Found an interesting Cricket Stats website...

https://www.cricmetric.com/

[A Former User]

@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@stuart-wallace-0 I do think the toss scalp has legs.

What did you find wrong with the bot?

In play I make plenty of great 'calls' but dither and more often than not end up a bit scrambled in my thinking.

@gavin-rumsey i am convinced that the pre toss scalp has legs , and confident we can get a hit rate of 90% - its the control of the 10% which is the key, along with controlling the stop loss .
There will be degrees of swing, for example, if the team winning the toss fields (assumption being that they believe its a crappy wicket and better to bowl) then the swing will be bigger than if they bat.

I cant tell you what the issue was yesterday with bot, as it would only embarass me but will be doing the same today with adjustment ! and will post results on here.

Can someone remind me... is 2.32 to 2.56 12 or 24 ticks ? my brain not quite up to speed this morning!

[Nathan Bennett]

BANG IRE
My 1.02 lay have taken 75% of that back @1.06
now for
My 1.05 lay if hits 1.10 will take 75% of that back
(1.09 taken)

bless you IRE

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0 @Gavin-Rumsey

I think you've hit the nail on the head saying "volatile". All these T20 franchises appear to attract alot of market support and are clearly tradeable, but finding something consistent in a hugely unpredictable 3-4 hour window is where my focus is at.

I'm now testing 5 strategies on the IPL... certainly hoping to find something.

[A Former User]

@stuart-wallace-0 I do think the toss scalp has legs.

What did you find wrong with the bot?

In play I make plenty of great 'calls' but dither and more often than not end up a bit scrambled in my thinking.

[A Former User]

One of the things about watching this game is how volatile the prices are - huge liquidity, huge price movements, and huge stress! gonna try to stick with my pre game strategy for time being , unless @Matt-Ayles can come up with a mega strategy.

[A Former User]

However, the prices after the toss show a theme that i think can be exploited.
This is at 14.42 (ie 12 mins after toss), and you will see a big swing of RR from 1.75 to 1.65 and Punjab from 2.32 to 2.56 - simply on who wins the toss.
I have found a flaw in the bot which means that i am still running a small red , but will adjust and see what happens tomorrow.

[A Former User]

OK, first attempt at TossLay bot not great, had a small loss , and not quite sure why at moment....