BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Matt-Ayles If there are no wickets early, the draw usually shortens fairly quickly, before a correction takes place. But with openers looking vulnerable there's a chance it might already be as low as it's going to go before any possible rain arrives on day three.
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although since posting this, it has shortened from 4.6 to 4.2
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BANG still batting kind of comical
hope it rains ha -
@Matt-Ayles my view would echo @Richard-Futter. I don't think either opening pair are up to much, so atleast short term drift is on the cards. It could come back if the middle order on either team gets in, but I see a draw being unlikely
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What are the thoughts around the opening draw price? I missed out on the Bangla one by not entering early enough...
Do we see it being shorter at lunch/tea or are wickets inevitable no matter who bats first and therefore commence layage now?
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@Richard-Futter love this write up !!! i can almost see stokes at the toss not giving a shyt what happens and def leaning towards chasing to win games
bring it on
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@Karl-Pick I'm not totally convinced Stokes will bat first if he wins the toss. He loves to do the unexpected and put the opposition in, and the Aussie openers look like wickets waiting to happen. Warner is Broad's bunny while Kawaja has a woeful record in England.
In the last Test here England reduced a top notch India batting line-up to 98-5 and if Australia bat first I will definitely be having a back of England to do early damage. That will be a short term trade though, as I'm not convinced that Robinson, Anderson and Stokes are entirely match fit, while the absence of Jack Leach means there's no Test class spinner to tie up an end if the Aussies do get into their stride.
In the longer term - and I'm in serious danger of turning into a stuck record (youngsters: ask your parents, or grandparents) - it'll be lay lay lay the draw. There has not been a draw here since 2012, when an incredible three whole days were lost to rain. That's not going to happen this time, with Sunday the only day that looks seriously under threat - although even then, it's likely to be a case of sunshine and occasional showers. That in itself gives some great trading opportunities.
With the pace of England's batting and the strength of the bowling units, only rain can prevent all five Tests producing positive results. I'm very surprised to see Australia even money favourites to win the series. They haven't won a series here in over 20 years and if I were to have a straightforward bet I'd be backing England to win the series 3-2 or 4-1.
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@Bruce-Lum think the toss in all games will be massive!! Both teams I think will Bat and go for a big 1st innings hoping the wickets Stokes has asked for get inconsistent bounce after days of quickies pounding them!
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@Jonathan-West i use xc Weather, mainly because i sail, and XCW gives me wind speeds.
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@Bruce-Lum instead of a reverse sweep, i am doing a reverse Mcgrath......5-0 to ENG.
Mcgrath and Jim Maxwell, the 2 biggest pundit plonkers on the planet.
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@Bruce-Lum I'd say you're not too far off with that. I can't see England's bowling attack consistently skittling Oz. It' may be a touch closer with favourable swing conditions and home advantage but I expect Oz to come out on top.
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@Martin Does anybody have a view on the Ashes series result?
I am thinking 4-0 or 3-1 Australia.
Full disclosure, I am Australian. -
@stuart-wallace-0 I'm tempted to get on the draw price (currently 4.6) but my weather forecast app is holding me back. What weather forecast website do you use? I use the met office which I find pretty reliable and it's showing improved weather for Sunday
With this in mind, and the media hype ramping up bazball expectation and therefore punter excitement the closer tomorrow morning gets , I'm wary that this price will drift. Or you looking to get out before the start? I guess I could see a likely scenario of Smith & Labuschagne getting in for a long stint on the first day which would shorten the price. But that's if they bat first.
Any reassurance on your weather prediction would be welcome and/or pointers that I may have missed or miss read.
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@Nathan-Bennett Thank you, just removed most of my liability.
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@Nathan-Bennett easy money on the draw lay!
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Wow, Sunday is looking like a cracking day !.....
Draw now at 4.4 - have entered at that as my first tranche.
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@stuart-wallace-0 BOOM ! i held on for the market to mini steam in a lil via small partnership #bonus
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@Nathan-Bennett Yep, i got in just in time at 3.45 this morning.
