BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@matt-wood It'll take some time to understand, me and probably more so Richard have been trading test cricket for years. Most valuable thing you can do is observe as you are, if you can follow trades then great you'll make your monthly sub in test cricket alone.
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@luke-ridger said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@matt-wood It's worth considering over 5 days, there are many sub plots. Just because people are backing the draw, it wouldn't mean they think it's a draw as such. You can build equity into your book so effectively if i backed the draw at 3s with £100 and layed at 2s, i've built £100 equity i can use to further lay the draw .
Thanks. I am just observing and trying to learn a bit here really appreciate the answer.
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@richard-futter an evens lay with 200 overs + left is a great opportunity. I do think the weather eases this afternoon and can play till 7pm so would expect 30 overs or so used. Swing on offer too and a newish ball. Windies batting 200 overs to save the test...... not a chance it should be evens really.
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@matt-wood It's worth considering over 5 days, there are many sub plots. Just because people are backing the draw, it wouldn't mean they think it's a draw as such. You can build equity into your book so effectively if i backed the draw at 3s with £100 and layed at 2s, i've built £100 equity i can use to further lay the draw .
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Happy to lay the draw again at anything around evens or odds on.... the final two days look set for fair weather and there's a huge amount of time available still. Any play this afternoon would also be a bonus and I would expect the odds to drift again considerably with batting conditions likely to be difficult.
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@jpm eased some out south of 2.3, I think once the coverage starts with rain ..... Asian money will pile into the draw
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@luke-ridger said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
2.3 shortened more than I expected.
Totally. Now thinking of my exit point. Staying in for now as I can see the price dropping down to 2.
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@nathan-bennett initially yes I would have said delayed start tomorrow, forecast not as bad this evening so it should be dry to be honest for starting on time tomorrow.
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missed optimum here but still great . how's the weather . possibility wet outfield going into day4 slight possible delay ? could be 1.8 styles
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2.3 shortened more than I expected.
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@jpm Cider for me but same premise .
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@luke-ridger sit back, enjoy a beer and see the Draw price drop. Trading at its best!
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@jpm 2.96 now , lots of scope for it to drop yet
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Forecast is getting worse if anything, suggesting a total washout tomorrow. In that case, looking at similar situations in the past and the match situation, I’m expecting the Draw price to drop right down to 2. I caught it at 3.3 on the close of play. Though regret not catching it an Over earlier at 3.7.
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This post is deleted!
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I’m thinking if we lose a day I might take a hit on the lay of the draw now and then try and get some green by backing it tomorrow and then look at other options going forward. Any thoughts?
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@luke-ridger understand tomorrow will be wet and with the ground staff needing 90 mins to dry up the ground , unsure if the window will be big enough to get play in . Taking 3.25 on the draw looking for 2.5 .
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@matt-wood I was staked in whilst play was happening so wickets hurt.
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but why is the risk high?