The road to full time
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Todays Selections:
LTDs:
Haugesund (norway)Over 1.5s:
Haugesund (norway)
Slavia prague (czech)
Empoli (italy)
Rangers (scotland)For the overs 1.5s all im doing is queueing a back for 1.25 and letting it run. Ill likely keep it to this staking size of the bank for rest of this year, NOV-DEC is prime for all football traders to see if their strategy really holds up. Massive test for people incoming. Likely to see me only focus on set and forgets during that period. Update these later tonight, will be watching scotland game (t20 world cup), will depend on mood and if a glaring opportunity arises as likely watching as a fan than a trader, but will post if i spot something.
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@keelan-kanji If you see with my entry i was in long before the end of innings with conway still in, so my thought process was if they hit 150 id likely exit, because of that being a low total the odds would be unlikely to move too far from my original entry. For me this acted like a free bet. They scored sub 140 and could easily have cashed out/remove red. But then i always ask myself, if i was to enter now would i take the price i got for this situation. Chasing a target of 135 for 1.66 was a great entry. In international cricket we know the opposition are likely to have good opening bowlers. You know that wickets will fall while you hold a position. But the run rate never went above 10s and barely went above 9s. The last 10 overs of a match you expect teams to be getting at least 8.5/9 runs and over on average. They still had shadab and hasan to come in, its similar with most teams very good depth.
So no there wasnt a stage of ill get out here. Yes the game flipped in terms of odds, an overreaction perhaps, people could have taken advantage of that but no batsmen were getting enough time to be set for me to enter again/top up, i think its a risk getting on when batsmen have only faced sub 10 balls. But i know that when i entered i had value for the match situation and that in that position again over multiple games id come out well long term.
You could have played this so many ways, but keeping everything simple is my preferred way and one id encourage anyone to do especially with cricket. Just try to look at the game as a whole, rather than a trend. Many traders try to trade a situation in a game and exit, for me that can lead to overtrading or "fanboy" trades. Just keep referring back to the whole game and what this current situation means for the end result. When you spot the game going towards something, in my case a sub 140 score, weigh that up with odds and ask yourself is that value. Iv done many t20s and know that it should have been far less than the market was offering. In time when you see a price youll weigh that upto the current score/predicted score and spot value.
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@darri
Out of interest, did you trade out at all at innings break or with the slow start where the odds hovered from 1.6-1.7
I traded some out at 1.4 at innings break as losing wickets early was a threat with southee and boult even thought PAK bats had been in form.
I thought PAK were value at a lot of points late in the first innings and throughout the second but when Rizwan got LBW it looked like it could fall apart.I am just curious to pick your brain, feel free to give as much or little feedback as you have capacity for
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Anytime Goalscorers:
Arsenal vs Leeds:
Pepe
Martinelli
RodrigoChelsea vs Southampton:
Havertz
Ziyech
AlonsoStaking set out on my sheets
Profit in chelsea game, dud in the arsenal, with the benefit of hindsight, should have had nketiah given his record in league cup, still tho doing well on these and we move on
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Anytime Goalscorers:
Arsenal vs Leeds:
Pepe
Martinelli
RodrigoChelsea vs Southampton:
Havertz
Ziyech
AlonsoStaking set out on my sheets
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Iv started to back PAK in the cricket @1.66
This is why trading cricket is so lucrative. Yes the match flipped, but what does it all boil down to, value! Was 1.66 for that sort of total value, YES. Trust in your process and over time youll be rewarded
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@john-folan remind me to look at your list before placing! It matched the criteria im looking at for them, so far 83% placed from 127, hoping it continues, however this was during the summer/flats, soon only be all weather racing so just trying to take advantage of flats while i could
They also have done well with jumps so far, but was hoping the software would be out or people could test my hypothesis for them with jumps too.
If you can get something that works on the allweather going that would be amazing. Loads of it now. Interesting how the different surfaces affects things though. Hopefully like you say the software will confirm things. I’ve got a list as long as your arm to look at
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Iv started to back PAK in the cricket @1.66
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@john-folan remind me to look at your list before placing! It matched the criteria im looking at for them, so far 83% placed from 127, hoping it continues, however this was during the summer/flats, soon only be all weather racing so just trying to take advantage of flats while i could
They also have done well with jumps so far, but was hoping the software would be out or people could test my hypothesis for them with jumps too.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
HR
15:50 Catterick: Metal Man (2 places)
I did have a few others today but didnt have enough time to post, so ill just take the winnings from them as a bonus and buy a takeaway tonight with it
Loss, shame i didnt post the earlier ones, but anything outside of football is a bonus for me, still using earlier winnings for the takeaway and will add the loss to the actual bank, only want to be showing transparent trades not after the fact ones
Sorry mate I had that one as a lay in the odds on favourites. Thought it might have finished in the places though. I think the going screwed it.
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There might be a few trades tonight, probably a goalscorer one. Ill have a look when teamsheets are out and post when im entered
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@darri said in The road to full time:
HR
15:50 Catterick: Metal Man (2 places)
I did have a few others today but didnt have enough time to post, so ill just take the winnings from them as a bonus and buy a takeaway tonight with it
Loss, shame i didnt post the earlier ones, but anything outside of football is a bonus for me, still using earlier winnings for the takeaway and will add the loss to the actual bank, only want to be showing transparent trades not after the fact ones
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HR
15:50 Catterick: Metal Man (2 places)
I did have a few others today but didnt have enough time to post, so ill just take the winnings from them as a bonus and buy a takeaway tonight with it
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@darri said in The road to full time:
HR
20:30 Newcastle: Mill waltz (3places)
2/2 for today, nice start to week and bank ticking over nicely
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@darri good win
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HR
20:30 Newcastle: Mill waltz (3places)
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@darri said in The road to full time:
HR
Ayr 16:15: Flood defence (2places)
Lovely start to the week
The place market is under utilised. Something we can put right with the horse trading software
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@darri said in The road to full time:
HR
Ayr 16:15: Flood defence (2places)
Lovely start to the week
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HR
Ayr 16:15: Flood defence (2places)
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With a very chill day expected, thoughts turn to my data and refining a few things. Iv become very laid back with this and wait for quiet periods before checking. Found this to be a healthy approach. Means im not changing things just because of 1 bad run and infact allowing the strat to breathe. Was one of my worst traits from the past.
Couple takes on the strats:
LTDs:
As said there are no future tweaks planned, only removing leagues, as of yet there are none that have yet reached this mark.Champs/Europa:
I was always going to get off to a rocky start after i bullishly called it a gold mine. However, currently im only down because of 1 bad game.
Champs league iv still got a very healthy s/r 92%. As iv spoke to many about, this for me is a good average to have as it gives leeway to a few extra losses. My edge can gobble up a few bad ones.
Silly to be doing FHGs for european games and ill be avoiding that going forward.xG:
Continues to be a background tested strat. However it continues to be unbeaten. With average back odds of 2.43. Its perhaps my favourite as it truly is about value seeking. Its got no bias in it, just pure stats/underlying stats. However im going to just test it for this whole season before hopefully having enough data in it to be a good set and forget.Goalscorers:
Most will think im punting here. However as always i have a reason. Im looking for games that are predicted to have goals. If you have a look at my picks, there have only been a few games that ended with less than 2 goals. If those players im selecting are normally involved in those goals, we have a very good probability that we bag a winner. With goalscorer odds of around 2.5 and above you can see why this is proving successful. In time we may refine this but i like the way im trading these. While yes in time the bank will outgrow these, i may aswell do them while we can, as they have been good bank builders.Ov 1.5:
Probably the most sensible next "set and forget" to come in after the ltds. Before i started to open up in terms of trading, the plan was going to be LTDs and Over 1.5s and that would be it. That could still be the way to go for me. The truest version of set and forget and passive income. Right now its operating at a level id be more than happy to trade. The only issue is its not got a huge data on winter leagues. With all my strats iv ever had, in a bulk sample its never been any different. Yes some leagues wont do well but in bulk there is very little difference between summer and winter, perhaps just volume. So less volume and 1 bad run could make you think its worse. Ill most likely be using 1% staking to start with and see how that progresses.Everything else:
As you can see iv really cut back on any other sports. There is plenty of cricket this next period however and ill likely be involved only on the best opportunities. Im not a fan of some of the wickets they are playing on. It does affect my strategies a bit.
Horses, im just slowly going about my business with them. Got a good sample size saying this works, but when the software comes out hopefully it can further build on it. Ill not be getting involved in the testing, i dont have enough time to get involved, but whatever happens it will be a great addition to the site. John can finally have people other than him on the thread.Just a summary more for me than you to read. Just refreshes my head as to what is and is not working. What to scrap and what to add. This is a build up of me focussing on each one of these at a time and building in the same way i talk about on the blog.
A future portfolio could look like:
LTD
Champs league (shg only)
Over 1.5sRight now tho the bank is on the up and as iv said im not caring too heavily on optimisation. Eeking out every ounce of profit. All i need is something that is safely building a bank and can be compounded. Regardless of how good something is, ill still reach my end goals. Hopefully others are of that mindset too.
