The road to full time

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Not much happening right now these summer leagues are having goals fly in. Least this builds confidence so that when one or two do match we are trading the right leagues! Im going to be quite busy this week away from trading, ill still be updating the FHGs when they pop up.

While i do this full time iv been looking to add things in my life to help compliment trading. As this blog goes on i will maybe explain a bit more as to what im looking into. Most will know tho that i have been involved in tv and film production, with the safety net of betfair it allows me to start other projects that i want to do personally. For me trading is too lonely. Tradings biggest perk is the time you have and i want to fully utilise that more than i have been. Now tho i want to add things to my schedule that will fill in those gaps. Im 27 and want to enjoy the money i make right now, but i do want to start building things for the future, less eggs in the trading basket, as i aim to be financially comfortable when im 40. This is a bit off topic for the specific trades but this is a long term process and shows what trading can provide in the long term. Current side projects include Football index, TV/Film, Youtube. Slowly increasing the money and efforts in all and looking for more things for future ambition is there just need to act on it

Matt Wood

@darri I thought it might be something like that. Thanks for a quick answer

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@matt-wood id just watch the game, as long as it doesnt affect 2nd half flow to the game its fine

Matt Wood

Evening Darri, hope you are well.

Just noticed the Sion game this evening has been interrupted due to a power failure. Would you treat this like a red card situation in terms of the trade or would it be a case of watching the game and stats etc one it resumes?

Thanks in advance

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Trading Watchlist 3/8/20

LCS/LTD

Norrkoping vs mjallby 0-0/0-1
elfsborg vs sirius 0-0/0-1
sevette vs sion
zurich vs thun
craiovo vs cluj 0-0

The swiss games i will be checking the league table as the games are inplay and judge at the time if to get it, they would only be lcs, however even tho these are lower quality teams in the league i imagine the markets might still expect goals so might not be able to enter. On the list incase they qualify price wise. Swedish games are as presented

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@thomas-larsen The sheets are pretty simple, others may want more data to collect in them but for me the numbers i look for on my sheets are the key to each of the strategies.

FHG: i have been building a FHG filter, if you read below you will find the filter. Right now im not trading them but early signs look good. Maybe you could use it and see if it suits you going forward.

SHG: i lcs around 65-75 mins when there is goal pressure (shots on target, big chances) then depending on score i will look to see if te game is still lively, if it is i will then enter with a LTD. This can be 5-10 mins later, LTD price at these times are low so either side scoring nets a hefty profit. I spoke to someone about this a while back, for me treat them as 2 different strategies. Try to blank out the fact they are the same game. The LCS is the consistent one that makes the bank tick, i find the LTD strat to be quite aggressive and will likely be volatile in the bank but has the best potential for making £s

I used to do 60 mins lcs trades. Most of this blog covers that period of my trading. Its only been in the last year that iv started to trade later in games. Youll be able to see that progression.

Feel free to ask questions bud, be good to help sort you out going forward. Sounds like your a capable trader already with match reading.

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Poor round of games this weekend not managing to find many opportunities. I had kalmar vs aik as one to watch rather than a set game for the list. I entered a lcs at 1.85. From 78-86 mins there was almost no chances made, really poor. Then a both teams upped the tempo but was too late. Losing trade, unlike others when iv posted saying would trade again this one i probably wouldnt. Price really swayed me a bit here.

FHGs another 2 added, i think a small updated post on them is needed especially if the results continue the way they are. Things are starting to ramp up on the trading front, summer leagues in full flow, fhgs back up and running and i have a new strategy i have been working on that could be added to my small portfolio very soon (ill do a post v soon)and the strats are all in the green albeit a rocky last month definitely tested the strength of my trading

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@thomas-larsen hi mate, ill give a decent reply to this post after todays trades

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@darri thx Darri i hve taken a look at your spreadsheet and wil make a copy of that. It looks very easy to read.
Thank you so much for taking the time to help me.
I think i would like to keep it pretty simple in the beginning. SO i would like to have my own filters for
FHG
SHG LCS/LTD
SH Late goals (Maybe)
I will be a completely new thing for me with my own filters. Untill now I have just traded what i see. Watching the games, looking at stats on sofascore, bet365
Can I please ask you When you f.ex. LTD and you lay to the price of 3. What is the actual odds and how do i get it?
Do you do both at the same time, i mean LCS and LTD? I can figure out when to do what..
I think i will write to you in your road to full time thread so i dont mess up this one with all my stupid questions...
Thx in advance Thomas

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Stinking trade, some chances at the end but next to nothing between 78-86 mins. Couple left in italy to look at so not turning off just yet

Matt Wood

@finn-kristensen said in The road to full time:

@stuart-capstick said in The road to full time:

@darri

Yep. Had my eye on this one as well. Fantastic price.

I thought this one was postponed?

I think someone said it was moved either in venue or time due to covid stuff

Finn Kristensen

@stuart-capstick said in The road to full time:

@darri

Yep. Had my eye on this one as well. Fantastic price.

I thought this one was postponed?

Stuart Capstick

@darri

Yep. Had my eye on this one as well. Fantastic price.

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I have added a LCS on the kalmar vs aik game to the list currently 0-0 72 mins

Matt Wood

Yea I read your words of advice on the outright betting and have already had some nice green :), thank you I think you are right about it being a good little earner. Rangers is one to lay that I had in mind too. Although will have to be in and out quick as they will obviously win

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@matt-wood this could be a very tight year, both clubs have managed to keep their best players and have strengthened, obviously transfer window isnt over but if celtic want 10 in a row its gonna be a tougher than other years. Im still happily going to lay rangers if they touch anything odds on in the outright market (keeping it trading related) its worked the past 2 years

Matt Wood

@darri End the scottish prem now. Rangers Champions

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Trading watch-list 2/08/20:

LCS/LTD

gangwon vs sanju 0-0
goteborg vs malmo 0-0/0-1
bodo vs stromsgodset 0-0/1-1
lecce vs parma 0-0/0-1/1-1
genoa vs verona 0-0/0-1

A couple of games are on the fhg filter too will be happy when im able to be putting them on this sheet too. Very much into the summer leagues being tradeable from the filters now. Not going to notice as much of a transition period between the winter and summer leagues which is better for trading. Scotland already back too

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@ben-dobie like i said in the earlier post everything in trading is based off personal preference. If the match was lively and the risk reward you were comfortable with then absolutely get involved in the trade, plus it was a good win too. I marked the molde game as having another goal in it awesome to see it paid off. If we all traded the exact same way trading wouldnt even be possible. There is a lot of people trying to force their way/strategy out there, just keep doing what your doing and take the bits that suit you. Nice trade mate

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@darri totally agree with you not getting involved mate or changing your plan, I just had an eye on it and saw a late spike in the home team attacking so got involved with low liability. Not saying what I done was the right way to go was sort of saying thanks for the heads up in the game, had I lost the trade I was comfortable with what is had lost but felt the risk / reward ratio was worth it given the odds I got involved at