The road to full time
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Trading watchlist 10/08/20
sirius vs varbergs 0-0/0-1/1-1
molde vs brann 0-0/0-1/1-1
Also adding in the europa games
inter vs leverkusen 0-0/0-1/1-1
man utd vs copenhagen 0-0/0-1/1-1we have a couple on the FHG filter too but please remember these are still in testing and not to be traded yet.
Good to be back after taking that week off from trading. I managed to get a heap of other stuff done which really helps with rest of this month going forward. Anyone who has started a business from scratch and with their own money will appreciate the hard graft that goes into any beginning phase. Should have things in order to be able to focus more on trading rest of month. been an exciting year for myself even if covid hampered the progress a bit
Hi Darri, I am still very new to this scene
These trades you mentioned do you back the CS or Lay? I’m trying to pick the trade apart and understand the reasoning of why you have decided to go with the trade
Tia
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Posting this for 2 reasons, one its good to show the type of strike rate i need in my strategies even after a few losses back to back how quickly i can come back in my favour and secondly there was method to this and it might help you in your own inplay analysis. Also the above shows a liability on the trade of £10 remember so winning a net profit 19.60 is a cracking return.PRE MATCH research was boiled down to finding lineups and seeking out the key players. Traders who trade any team game should know the key players and mark them down, we then take this inplay to see if they are playing well and look up for it. For wolves i marked down, Raul Jimenez (17 goals 6 assists) and Diogo Jota (7 Goals 1 assist) not necessarily because they are top scorers more that raul is top scorer and jota suits the system and is a big game player, both combined have contributed to 60% of all goals scored in the prem league for them this season. For sevilla Ocampos (14 Goals and 3 assists) and Banega (3 goals 7 assists) again season contribution is 50% of the goals. Boh teams had relatively good motivations for this as wolves need it for europe and first time back in the comp, sevilla are europa league legends and im questioning why i never outright trade them these days. Take all this into inplay now.
INPLAY was good not much in terms of start stop, flow was perfect and zero timewasting which was different to the united game were copenhagen were just trying to hang on for ET.
But here are the 2nd half stats:
As you can see a total domination from sevilla. What i was seeing wasnt the individual stats i never even looked at them but i was seeing them pass and move into really dangerous areas even if shots didnt come from it. But these stats show a really good attack momentum and pressure building even if a huge amount of urgency wasnt shown. Then came the KEY players. If you seen my entry it was as soon as diogo jota came on. Using pre match research we had i marked him down as a key player. Now obviously he didnt score but with wolves opting for 2 attacking subs in jota and in neto wolves looked for counter opportunities. Ocampos and banega looked lively with banega dictating. For me these are all signs to enter. Now to look at does the price reflect this or do we have an edge on the market here?PRICE was 1.49 to back over 0.5 goals at HT of course i knew it was going to be rather good come 70 if scores remained. I looked at the correct score price on offer when jota was about to come on and entered at 1.5 to lay as shown above. The market was suggesting that this was going to be 0-0. For me this represented huge value.
Ocampos scored and was assisted by Banega!!
In terms of looking at this trade all areas of the my go to model i chat all the time about of PRE-INPLAY-PRICE all came together nicely here. Remember they all have to compliment each other. We easily could have lost this trade but we are making sure that we value all our info and see if value is on offer, basing on what i said above it was. Remember there are always different ways to trade, discipline is key, my strike rate allows for losses without a need to go hunting for more, dont be frustrated after a few losses. Hope this post helps with the understanding of what i look for in a trade and hopefully you can pick some of the parts you like into your own trades.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
iv lcs in the wolves vs sevilla game
GOAL! lovely stuff and cracking price too, will do an update after the game, as there was a method to the trade id like to talk about
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iv lcs in the wolves vs sevilla game
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Watchlist 11/08/20
Both europa leagues games 0-0/0-1/1-0 for both. If 0-1/1-0 want to see the other teams even on chances/inplay stats or better
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Just to keep this updated here is todays results, when its a quiet week like this or there has only been 1 game traded i will start to bunch them up into 1 update, so maybe a weekly update. I will then pick one good and one bad trade and discuss my reasoning, because general consensus was that its not the actual live trades people want its the method behind it. Dont want to spam the thread with small one game updates even if they are green days. Not much for tomorrow league game wise, again the europa will be an inplay decision rather than a filter pick. -
Both teams look absolutely shattered come the 85 min. Be interesting to see what happens in ET(wont be getting involved tho). Lost the trade but still happy with the thought behind it
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LCS united currently 0-0 75 mins
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@matt-wood not a stupid question mate, left out the 1-0 because it means the team im aiming to follow has already taken lead and might lack motivation to go grab another. Dont want say +85 mins onwards them just to be timewasting etc with no intent. I see inter and man utd as the stronger teams if they play their full strength teams. Based purely on how they finished the season so strongly respectively.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@chris-osborne hi mate, iv included 0-1 because i dont see inter or man utd not scoring. Neutral grounds doesnt bother me because im not trading these type of games purely off stats from home/away form. I always trade these games off the match itself. They will only be LCS also its how i like to trade tournament football either club or international. Obviously team lineups will be key here.
Just to ask a stupid question, does this include a 1-0 scoreline AS WELL AS 0-1? Or has 1-0 been left out on purpose?
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@darri Fair enough and thanks. I agree re Inter and Man Utd likely to score probably multiple times
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@chris-osborne hi mate, iv included 0-1 because i dont see inter or man utd not scoring. Neutral grounds doesnt bother me because im not trading these type of games purely off stats from home/away form. I always trade these games off the match itself. They will only be LCS also its how i like to trade tournament football either club or international. Obviously team lineups will be key here.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Trading watchlist 10/08/20
sirius vs varbergs 0-0/0-1/1-1
molde vs brann 0-0/0-1/1-1
Also adding in the europa games
inter vs leverkusen 0-0/0-1/1-1
man utd vs copenhagen 0-0/0-1/1-1we have a couple on the FHG filter too but please remember these are still in testing and not to be traded yet.
Good to be back after taking that week off from trading. I managed to get a heap of other stuff done which really helps with rest of this month going forward. Anyone who has started a business from scratch and with their own money will appreciate the hard graft that goes into any beginning phase. Should have things in order to be able to focus more on trading rest of month. been an exciting year for myself even if covid hampered the progress a bit
@Darri With European Games being at Neutral grounds from now on until completion just curious as to why you've included 0-1 in both games?
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Just a quick update on the blog and how its going also. Im enjoying BTC far more now and im glad i stuck around in terms of still being active on the forum rather than just using the stats software(been a member nearly 2 years now). The targets, the FHG project and how im using the forum is def working now. I do pin this down to focusing more on this blog than other areas. I know this blog can be a bit rambling at times but im far more content now with my contribution. I think alot goes missing very quickly in other threads on here and good value vanishes within a few days. Thats not just my stuff but other peoples posts too. But thats why im glad i have this blog up and running nicely now.
This next month or so before the start of the season or when the main leagues start to have qualifiers on the filters is a great time to start ramping and scaling the bank. Im going to be fairly active with these summer leagues based on what iv seen so far. There has been a big difference between the zero crowds and these nordic games. Seems to me like normal service resumed. I was cautious with the main leagues post covid purely because i quickly found it hard to read games and judge when to enter. Towards the end of last month i really got into the swing after making those changes and we started to return to good trading.
Big couple of months
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Trading watchlist 10/08/20
sirius vs varbergs 0-0/0-1/1-1
molde vs brann 0-0/0-1/1-1
Also adding in the europa games
inter vs leverkusen 0-0/0-1/1-1
man utd vs copenhagen 0-0/0-1/1-1we have a couple on the FHG filter too but please remember these are still in testing and not to be traded yet.
Good to be back after taking that week off from trading. I managed to get a heap of other stuff done which really helps with rest of this month going forward. Anyone who has started a business from scratch and with their own money will appreciate the hard graft that goes into any beginning phase. Should have things in order to be able to focus more on trading rest of month. been an exciting year for myself even if covid hampered the progress a bit
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Some games added to the FHG filters, not trading this weekend been a crazy busy week and need a break tbh. Ill be back start of next week hopefully pick a few good trades during the week. I have been logging in to check the forum every now and again. I have to keep reiterating to anyone who is struggling, focus on one strategy, paper trade it the same way we are with the FHGs. Do first batch, see if it can be improved, then start by placing minimum stakes if profitable for another 100 then add it to the main bank.
Trading isnt going away. Taking the time to test a strategy thoroughly will help by allowing you to trade from actual data not an assumption. The initial idea is your assumption, then you have to test it not put money to it. Thats suicide in business. Paper testing also give you confidence in you trades. If you go on a bad run you still know that over the long term you will still be fine. Mindset is always something to go back to and is the biggest change iv had since BTC. Its probably the biggest hurdle for everyone. There are plenty good strategies out there, its mad to think you can give that to say 5 people and they will all have different results. But it will be the one with the best trading mindset that will come out on top long term.
Why do we need to be testing 4-5 strategies at a time when we are learning? Its a mindset thing to think we need 4-5 in the portfolio or in a case closer to me to be trading everyday? These assumptions are wrong. You only need to have 1. 1 good strategy that makes between 5-10% or 5-10 points per month or over a set number of trades and just compound that. Trading is made more complicated by these assumptions. I base all my decisions based on data. Data drives our decisions, we base our filter picks based off data, so why are we not basing our actual money trades based off data?
Its always hard in the beginning, there is so much happening and so much to learn. But like businesses its best to focus on one aspect of the market. Is that FHGs, LCS or LTDs no need to try be a master of them all. Get good at one thing, then test another. Everyone still thinks this is a get rich quick scheme i did in the beginning too. But you will be surprised at how quickly testing something actually takes before it becomes a full blown strategy. If you plan to be trading for 10-20 years or more why not put the effort to test for a few months to find a strategy that will make you money every single one of those years to come?!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Some lockdown restrictions have just been re imposed in aberdeen, the bar in question is literally in my flats eyesight! Its currently only affecting hospitality but i presume that it will slowly interfere with businesses as the week goes on. So far it hasnt impacted on what im doing this week and im still busy so far.
I was maybe going to trade today and saturday but now this news might have to make me put more hours into other things in a bid to finish the projects incase of a bigger lockdown. Ill still keep the FHGs updated but finding it hard to find time to trade this week. Thanks for the messages about my last post, its so appropriate that this has happened this year to show that its good to have different avenues of business and work. The money i make from trading is great for helping fund other ventures. Just a quick post as iv had a member email me asking how i was in light of the news.
Fingers crossed for you Darri, hopefully it won't get much more than it is. Stay safe whilst you go about your tasks!
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@darri said in The road to full time:
Some lockdown restrictions have just been re imposed in aberdeen, the bar in question is literally in my flats eyesight! Its currently only affecting hospitality but i presume that it will slowly interfere with businesses as the week goes on. So far it hasnt impacted on what im doing this week and im still busy so far.
I was maybe going to trade today and saturday but now this news might have to make me put more hours into other things in a bid to finish the projects incase of a bigger lockdown. Ill still keep the FHGs updated but finding it hard to find time to trade this week. Thanks for the messages about my last post, its so appropriate that this has happened this year to show that its good to have different avenues of business and work. The money i make from trading is great for helping fund other ventures. Just a quick post as iv had a member email me asking how i was in light of the news.
Hope that’s as far as your extended lockdown goes Darri, I’m in Leicester so know only too well how extended lockdown goes and wouldn’t wish it on anyone but if the stats say otherwise there’s not much choice.
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Some lockdown restrictions have just been re imposed in aberdeen, the bar in question is literally in my flats eyesight! Its currently only affecting hospitality but i presume that it will slowly interfere with businesses as the week goes on. So far it hasnt impacted on what im doing this week and im still busy so far.
I was maybe going to trade today and saturday but now this news might have to make me put more hours into other things in a bid to finish the projects incase of a bigger lockdown. Ill still keep the FHGs updated but finding it hard to find time to trade this week. Thanks for the messages about my last post, its so appropriate that this has happened this year to show that its good to have different avenues of business and work. The money i make from trading is great for helping fund other ventures. Just a quick post as iv had a member email me asking how i was in light of the news.
