The road to full time
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@darri nice work mate. I found the 164 from Delhi just under what I thought was a really. competitive total. It’s amazing what a psychological difference 174 is compared to 164. I refrained from getting involved during the Delhi innings and am thinking given how the decks are starting to play could be a plan going forward. I didn’t rush into backing KXI but waited till they went over 2.0 after losing Rahul and then as CG started to cut loose removed liability. Despite his wicket I had faith that it still wasn’t enough but Pooran cutting loose saw the price plummet and I got out for a small green. Really do like the concept of working out via a par score.
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KP vs DC:
Good game to watch this, had to really judge on when to get involved here. Using the guide i posted before to judge the pace of DC innings i thought with dhawan settled and with hetmyer, stoinis and axal still to come that a score of 175 or more would be achieved. The milestone for dhawan hindered this with more emphasis on him reaching that than pushing on from such a solid first 10 overs. Falling short to a 164 was just shy of a solid total. I made this out to be in the par bracket, 160-170. So with that in mind i traded out my position for a loss going into the KP innings. Some quick wickets happened but along with a blistering start by gayle meant that not much had really changed in terms of overall scope of the game. But come 8 overs in and with them already surpassing average score after 10 overs i jumped on. Pooran going along nicely and maxwell almost finishing the game for me. Overall happy with the trading. I could have been a bit more bullish with the winning trade but KP have had a shocking middle order in the past so didnt like too much risk. Nice small profit tho will hopefully add up over the rest of the comp.
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This is why trading cricket is one of the most suited sports for me. My strategy of using a par score shining here. I know on other games i will miss good opportunities to oppose or back at certain points of games, but for me the overall picture is something im learning first.CSK vs RR:
CSK posting only 125 was always going to be a task on how to get involved in the game using my approach. However they bagged a few cheap wickets and the reaction was huge. In step smith and buttler. At this time i entered with the knowledge that if both were to be out in the next 5 overs i would exit my trade. I gave them a couple of overs to get adjusted and then built on my initial stake. Both opening bowlers bowling their full spell meant that if they could get through the next 5 overs it should be easy picking. Positional trading really helping here rather than trading in the moment. Taking a good price and managing it as the market goes up and down making sure i didnt bag too big a loss. Smith and buttler went on to score the remaining runs easily and bagged my biggest profit this ipl.
I wont be doing daily updates on the football they will come at end of week. But while i learn cricket i will do these after games.
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END of week results:Football:
Only a few days of activity this week, internationals cutting into domestic action a bit. Football wise we remain consistent, only managed to post a few trades this week but happy with 2/3 and a profit to post up. Moving into a european comp week we should be able to find a few games we like. The rest of October looks very busy and with players always being monitored for the virus pre match research is paramount. Ill post if any games during the week qualify.
Cricket:
Really good weekend using small stakes at present so encouraging to see it almost match what i made from football this early on. Todays games both ending in a tie and balancing out for me. I missed out on some good green in the sunrisers game but i had an active trade on it anyway so wasnt sitting with green with enough time to even consider the tie. The mumbia game was a different story. I was sitting on a red going into the last over so having a tie saved me have a red day for the cricket. Both games at some point produced a green screen when i based current state of match to average score. This is definitely an approach thats helping me judge what is and isnt a good price in games. I do plan in long term to be more fluent in what is and isnt good value like i have with football but it will take time. But good start always makes it easier when your making profits as you learn.
Conclusion: +1.94 points profit
Good solid return to trading again after a much needed break. The addition of cricket trading has brought about a spark in me again for trading. I definitely lost the love for it in terms of using the forum, but as ever the folk that follow this and read making it worthwhile to come back. The office will hopefully be setup end of week once the comp and monitors arrive. Lets see what the rest of october brings should push on from this week going forward.
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Gary's SHG filter is ridiculous
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@james-woodroffe nice trade btw, pollard is a different class end of innings
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@james-woodroffe yep there are going to be times i will miss out on big swings this way but like i say im trying to get good at one area first then move onto get better at another area. Its more a guide for me to be able to judge what is value in price and whats not. The more games im trading the more im starting to judge and see what is and isnt value. Mumbai have massively surpassed par score, so just seeing if there becomes a chance to get on them.
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More good food for thought mate and interesting that you’re using a par score pretty much to ascertain entry points. I went slightly different here and jumped on Mumbai when in trouble and at 2.04 backing them at goodish odds to get out of trouble. The par score is definitely something I’ll look at going forward in relation to odds.
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@james-woodroffe basing my trades off of my average score. If the team batting first look likely to surpass and the odds are not reflecting that so say +1.80 then im entering and looking for a swing back later in the game. Vice versa also, if a team isnt getting to that par score and the chasing team have a strong top order then im entering a lay of them. Sunrisers game was a good example here
Thats the main aim i prefer positional trading. Taking a price and then managing that trade. Making sure it doesnt go above my stop loss and getting out at right times and not being too greedy. In between this trade iv been directional scalping.
Today on the sunrisers game i left the profits on sunrisers and cashed out when warner got going. However i risked with the tied match. Im happy enough to have missed out, as right now im just learning entry and exits properly using small stakes. watching the MI game now always a good watch with them late on.
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@darri have you looked into the last few overs of the chase as or if the odds swing drastically or atm are you sticking to set exit?
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@rachel-murray think in the cricket markets its one of those things were you need to have a idea of what price you would like to trade out of, or a certain match situation before you trade out. Im trying not to be too critical of myself if i miss a few bits of profit more, but being more strict on my initial plan. So example today, SR started well chasing a small total, i got out after the powerplay. That was my plan and i stuck too it, had there been a wicket i was already in a good position so no need to trade out at that point. Before i would have cashed out earlier and been too defensive. Long way to go, least im being critical whilst still profiting for now.
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@Darri Good to read your cricket strategies, I'm in the same situation of often trading out too early so I need to work on that as well. I guess it will come with time.
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@james-woodroffe great to hear mate, i think thats the thing ill be monitoring most with my trades is letting my strategy run. Im far too defensive with some of my trades in terms of cutting it short. Just working on one thing at a time so far so good tho. Ill keep posting these on here because yesterday it really helped writing down exactly why i entered said trades and made me realise my reasonings were good and tradeable.
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Hey @Darri, great insight into how you’re looking at the cricket at the moment and how you’re going about trading the IPL
Doing similar myself at the moment and concentrating now mainly on cricket and tennis as my main priorities and keeping my football limited for the time being.
I agree that cricket (and tennis) can be very profitable by following strategies that focus on research and player knowledge.
Something I’ll be keen to follow again today with the two matches will be how the pitch plays in Dubai for a back to back as well as Abu Dhabi this morning as teams are suddenly finding it easier to chase those scores around 175.
For what it’s worth I’ve been currently looking at backing the batting team once their odds reach over 3.0 provided they’ve lost no more than 2 wickets in the power play and then looking to utilise the last 10 overs of the run chase to back and lay depending on who’s bowling (players) and who’s at the crease. The DC v CSK matched worked well as DC went well out to 3.15 but the joy was Dhawan’s form always gave DC a sniff and CSK are clearly not the same side away from Chennai. As long as Dhawan remained in the middle DC were in control despite the ballooning run rate. I rode it down to 1.15 before exiting the trade but was one of the first times I’d looked to maximise profit and not get out to soon. I’d been getting frustrated by exiting tennis trades to early and not maximising profit by 2nd guessing myself once in the position I was looking for (if that makes sense) anyway mate great read look forward to following the cricket side of things with you as there’s no shortage of international cricket coming up. -
So like i said earlier wasnt a day to be trading football for me, not enough data for me to go off of yet. Busy day tomorrow with summer leagues.But the plan remains the same im determined to continue the success i had last year with cricket and start to commit time and effort back to it now my trading on football is fairly spot on now.
RR vs RCB:
Really good game to watch! RR falling just short of a solid 180. But what i had done was put the 170-180 score to be average for measuring the match so when prices werent reflecting this i could jump on. RCB had finch out early brining kohli in very early which was an interesting time to be trading. Kohli influences the price so heavily he managed to get a few boundaries and the price skewed way too much in RCB favor. RR presented value for me here. I got on when the spinners came on. Boundaries had dried up but kohli was still turning singles into twos and was making up for lack of bigger shots. I got what i needed tho first paddikal and then kohli bringing the RR proice all the way into 1.30 and from there i just exited and took my profit.
DC vs CSK:
Average score i had was 165-175 the pitch was to favour batting 2nd with the dew etc allowing the ball to skid on and be easier to bat. CSK posting a hefty score making DC chase 180. Based on my average score it was going to be an task to get there. Unlike the last game i took several positions in the match. Profiting from the 1st ball wicket, i traded out. Dhawan had a run of a few huge drop catches when he was only on 25 so i took a position on CSK as the run rate piled on. Bravo came on and got the wicket and i took a slight profit here. I took a loss when stoinis came in, i had marked him, dhawan and carey as the key men in the chase. I should have stuck to the plan and exited before they came in. Stoinis whacked a few easy boundaries and i exited here for a loss. Overall happy with the game stick to the plan in future and would have been close to a 0.6 points profit.
Good to be back trading cricket. Iv always held onto the fact that in cricket you get rewarded as a trader for your strategies. I prefer it to football but i think football is easier to read as a trader you can tell exactly when to enter once you have strategies tested for a while. Couple things to work on going forward with cricket. When to exit, couple times i cut short big profits and to remain confident in my research, the key individuals was well researched and worked in both games so make sure i stick to it always. My way of trading cricket is to find a measure of what a par score would be and then from there getting in and out using key players based on if the prices reflect the par score. Both times there have been multiple potential entries but i feel i had a good handle on these games and got in at really good times.
Slight change to the usual for this thread but cricket is the sport i reckon suits me best. Couple reasons, i have a good level of cricket experience playing at a decent level. I think i read the game well. The liquidity in the markets is so scalable i mean tens of millions matched per game, football lucky to even get 1 million. Its going to compliment football trading so much. Especially they way i trade football. Hope you guys like the new sport and posting these like this because im still learning cricket, while iv been profitable with it before this is with a bigger bank and all formats (previously only 50 overs)
Added a section to my results sheet for cricket, very basic sheet but cricket isnt like football in the whole data led way for me personally.
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Weekend has come around but im not really finding any games i like the look of, too many leagues just started and not enough data to go off of. Busier day on sunday with the summer leagues so ill post a few up if they qualify. Hope people stay safe this weekend, most of these leagues are still new and should be more cautious right now.
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Looking ahead wont be until the weekend until i find any trades, the quality of football is terrible before then so dont force your trades on low quality leagues/football. Updated the sheets and ill keep them up to date going forward too. Just spent a fortune on doing up a space in the flat as an office. Working from home it is for the next 3-4 months at least i reckon so made a bit of effort to set that up (for anyone that doesnt know i trade full time but have a side business project in video production, that iv built up from trading money so its a necessity to not just work from the coffee table)
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Glad to have you back Darri. Like you said we need to develop our own strategies so I am now solely using my strong favourite system along with my own LCS/LTD. No filter for them, just using my own judgement.
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@matt-wood thanks mate good to be back and good to have a nice start too, and to see familiar names still about
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@darri Great to have you back into the swing of things Darri
