The road to full time
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@alastair-todd high mate, for key players if you go to flashscores, click on the game your looking, then click on standings. In there there is a tab with top scorers. In that section you can select the team your looking at and it will show all goals and assists for that team. You can then also click on those players which will give you a run down of each game, so you can see if they are in form and playing regularly.
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This post is deleted!
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Darri, this is great stuff and I feel that the forum alone is worth the monthly subs - it's like having a number of tutors available to guide you by the hand! A really basic question from a newbie: for those teams that we might not have any experience of, is there a go-to website that shows who their full complement of players normally is, who their best players are etc? I know that flashscore etc shows who is playing and who is on the bench but it might not be immediately obvious who I should be looking for to be on the pitch. The thing that has already made a huge difference for me is combining motivation, players, IP stats and price (although that last one comes with the experience of what the price should be at that stage of the match - and I'm not quite there yet!). Thanks for all your input.
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@darri to be fair I didn’t enter till after Berihino was subbed on but yes enough red flags to give it a wide berth and won’t worry now mate it’s chalked off. Feeling in a good place still so won’t beat myself.
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@john-folan thanks mate! sometimes its a waffle
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Good blog this Darri. Read it on a regular basis.
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also remember to keep all the things i have talked about the last few months simple. All this extra stuff takes 2 mins before a game. It then takes maybe 10-15 mins inplay of watching or 2mins of checking inplay and price to decide if your committing. Its hard to show that in action as when you type out the whole process it seems like a lot of work but its really at most 15 mins per game to decide in my own opinion. These small steps and sticking to the same process are helping to maintain a consistent approach to a game. This should mean that if you start to pick good trades on a regular basis then the process should mean you will profit month on month. Consistency is key once you have a good strategy, you just have to get good at the match selection first for your set strategy. Thats if your doing it same way as me and not just pure filter trading without all this extra.
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@matt-wood not a poor trade mate, just a trade that was making me question an entry and when that happens i dont trade it. I dont think i saw a clear and obvious chance to score after 60 mins? Maybe in last 10 mins but nothing to suggest a goal would come when looking to enter between 65-75mins.
@James-Woodroffe for me i base key players based on goal contribution. So that means goals and assists. Their top scorer is only on 6 but there were 3 others with similar stats berahino, nicholson and morioka. So there was enough key players for charleroi and kortjik to warrant a trade in terms of key players.
But what the big thing putting me off was i expected charleroi to score and yet they never threatened. Didnt like the fact the fav wasnt on top in the game and charleroi also have a fairly solid defensive record this season so was starting to flag red alerts. I think the fact it was a belgian game maybe influenced your decision to trade, but overall it wasnt a poor trade mate just had a few reasons for me to maybe be unsure of and when you question a trade its best to leave alone. For me to enter a trade i need to be able to fully justify to myself and others why i traded that game fully. I used to watch warren buffet in those AGM meetings where he was bombarded with questions and knew the ins and outs of exactly why his company made certain trades and business decisions. With total clarity. That for me is what i am trying my best to replicate with each trade. Just in a far more simpler approach:
pre match research (key players)
inplay flow
priceDont beat yourself up over the game there can be a goal in any game regardless of how a game is going. Just try to find reasons not to trade a game and if you cant think of a reason why then trade if you find a reason to not then dont. Its all about being risk averse in trading and these small and simple steps help you to judge that in just a few clicks to check.
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@matt-wood mate I’m going to blame the excruciating pain I was in last night. I believe I miss read FlashScore at one stage so the match was not as interesting as I thought but the big thing in hindsight and @Darri has mentioned it’s importance was the fact that Charaloi had their leading goal scorer missing for the match which should have been a red flag. I wasn’t interested in the Brighton match till I knew Ings and Maupay to a lesser degree were on the pitch but that slipped me for the Cheroloi match which was poor from me.
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Thanks for the run down again Darri
Did all the same thoughts apart from the exact same mistake as @James-Woodroffe and backed a late goal in Belgium. Have to be much more picky about is 'action' and look for those clear chances in future games. In play is something I need to be working on in Dec.
@Darri @James-Woodroffe Was the Charleroi game a poor trade due to the lack of clear chances? There was action in the game but I will admit to being tired at that point (getting up at 345 will do that). Was it that the chances were low quality and poorly executed by the players taking them/providing the final balls?
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@darri did everything the same here except Charleroi poor trade from me ruined what was an otherwise top night but well done bro 10!
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so just to reiterate what happened yesterday ill run through todays list to show it the exact same everyday even with smaller lists:
charleroi: not enough action for me on this one, not sure i saw a clear chance in the 2nd half
aarhus: red card no trade
brighton: nice even game and southampton looked good after bringing on redmond and of course key player ings! said he might play in my previous post.
hoffenheim: goals too early
valerenga: red card so avoid
pogon: goal too earlySo 1/1 trades and key player scoring. Thats 10/10 now for late goals
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@gary-brown iv just looked at todays fixtures and the ins and outs and iv massively underrated whats on tonight! Might be looking at a few more games than planned.
Here is the revised list for monday:
charleroi
aarhus
brighton
hoffenheim must have kramaric playing
valerenga only 0-0/0-1/1-0 entry
pogonI normally move on after the weekend but this looks like some decent games tonight
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@gary-brown nice! its on the betfair stream so ill just full screen that, working on video stuff (not trading related) this week so trying to get ahead of that before another busy weekend. I just checked the freesports channel, didnt know it existed tbh
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The Pogan game is on the free santana sports channel at 5pm mate.
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@gary-brown thanks bud! yeah i had a quick glimpse yesterday and thought not much on but saw 3 potentials, brighton, aarhus and pogon (poland) the last 2 are filter and brighton is on tv so ill watch it and see what happens. Think ings might get a game so worth watching for an entry there. Brighton with a decent injury list so maybe a weakened team.
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AMAZING MATE ABSOLUTELY SUPERB.
Are you trading this evening Darri?
i got a few games on my list.3rd Valerenge 2.25 4th Rosenborg 2.90
8TH Aarhus 2.30 3RD Brondby 2.80
1st Grasshoppers 1.55 V 9th Zuriuch 5.5
13H Hoffenhiem 1.70 V 10TH Augsburg 4.5
16th Brighton 2.55 8th Southampton 2.77
6th Excelsior 2.8 11th Volendam 2.37 -
End of Week 1:
Cricket:
t20 still performing well for me i think that currently is the format iv got a pretty clear strategy for. ODI and test both came up this month. I loved trading them. There is more of a thought out long term trade rather than t20 when its same length of innings as a football match. You can get in and out at set points. The NZ test match was my first proper traded test match. NZ batted for nearly 2 whole days and WI managed to look defensively sound to end day 2 with no wickets. However day 3 is always the decisive day. Momentum in cricket is huge. WI on day 2 had used their info from the day before and re adjusted their line and length for the pitch. It worked for them and got a few quick wickets. For me NZ attack is probably the best around right now. So for that i thought NZ had a better chance of grabbing a few quick wickets too. At average odds of 2.58 i managed lay the draw. Im assuming this will be a trend in tests based on the cricket thread. NZ ended up getting 5 wickets in the first hour of play. Lovely little trade. Used a conservative stake for it as first test but can clearly see the ability to have more in markets here and stake in line with normal bank. Good start nonetheless.Football:
Keep this part short. The set and forgets are on a month by month performance based approach if it doesnt meet targets its removed. Unless i see a way to tweak. This month focus will be on the unders. A new strategy but actually one iv included automation with. Yes iv been slightly converted. However its still a trade based on a good entry. So not quite a typical set and forget based purely off data. Iv added in automation as i want the ability to have a scratch trade alternative if too many goals are scored early.
Apart from that its been a great month so far. 9/9 now for the late goals, cue the variance but i think im still improving as a trader and each month im feeling more confident in what i do. I saw keith saying his trading has evolved and i feel the same the more im on it. Less reliance on filters and more match focus.
I see the football post went down well with everyone and ill try to do one of those when i can. I had hoped showing the list first would allow people to follow the same games live and then see if we both came to same conclusions. Th response has been great and i really hope its helped. Im also glad it was a winning day lets try keep momentum for these rest of month.Golf:
This could have been a huge profit. I had 2 golfers 1 shot away from being in the top 10. Golfers selections this week were Thomas, Ancer, Todd, Knox. Todd the only one in the top 10 but ancer and thomas missed out by one shot which if either had been in would have been a nice profit. However its going to show my selection process and when i enter these trades is clearly working. So my initial thought of oh this will be a quick thing is now turning out to keep on going. Im fascinated by these markets. Plus given the nature of how im trading these allows me to take long holds on them so it doesnt impact any other sort of trading im doing elsewhere. Im only going to keep these up while its still in profit.Conclusion: + 14.9 points/+14%
Great start to december. Im not getting carried away tho. November had a solid start too then had a wobble after int break. Got to make sure nothing changes in terms of why i enter games. Im glad some of the posts iv done these past weeks have helped people and saw ryan and chris mention the bookmarks, which is a handy feature i never knew about. Use that for certain on key posts to go over again. The reason i was suggesting a thread or a doc was so newer members or those that havent seen those posts could then get to see them. But ill try to maybe update some of my previous stuff in order to help when i have good reason too. I think lee and gary were clearly right in that people need to see the reasons why you wouldnt trade a game just as much as why you would. Most of my stuff is about finding the trades so it helped me rethink how i can actually help going forward -
@bottlabroon you can click the link under my name that says results 2020 that shows every trade iv made the last 2 months. But i the last column from the picture i showed is points/% of bank won/lost per trade.
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@darri Thanks very much for posting this Darri, it's great information for noobs like myself to see how you go about your selection process.
